Calgary, Alta. (Rural Roots Canada) – Alberta’s agriculture sector could feel the effects of the province’s referendum debate through labour availability, investment decisions and uncertainty, even if separation from Canada never happens, says an agricultural policy analyst.
Ohi Ahmed with the University of Calgary’s Simpson Centre for Food and Agricultural Policy says farmers, ranchers and processors should pay particular attention to how the debate affects temporary foreign workers.
“The results of this referendum are non-binding, but the referendum itself is like putting out a signal to the outside world about Alberta’s political position right now or the current political narratives that are dominant in Alberta,” Ahmed said.
He said debate surrounding health care, education and other services available to temporary foreign workers could affect Alberta’s ability to attract agricultural labour.
“If these become a matter of debate, then it might send out a message to the outside world that temporary foreign workers might not be as welcome in Alberta as they once were.”
That could be significant for a sector already facing labour shortages.
Ahmed cited research from the Canadian Agricultural Human Resource Council that found the Canadian agriculture sector lost $3.5 billion in sales in 2022 because of labour shortages. He said Alberta could face a gap of roughly 4,800 agricultural workers by 2030.
Read more: Tara Sawyer tapped to take over as Alberta’s Minister for Agriculture and Irrigation
Uncertainty could also affect investment.
“Whenever there’s uncertainty or a new risk on the horizon, the business sector automatically becomes cautious,” Ahmed said.
That could influence decisions on capital equipment and other long-term investments by farmers, ranchers and agri-food businesses.
Ahmed said Alberta’s existing trade relationships would not suddenly disappear because of the referendum result.
“Whatever the result is on October 19th doesn’t cancel all the existing trade market access and other arrangements that Alberta has, particularly with the federal government and all across the world.”
However, he said prolonged uncertainty could complicate future negotiations over federally funded agricultural programs administered by the province.
Ahmed said there is research suggesting separatist movements can sometimes give regions greater bargaining power with central governments, while other examples have shown the opposite.
“A lot of factors come into play here,” he said. “Sometimes it works well for the province that might want to separate, but sometimes it doesn’t work out for the regions in the way that they like forecasted it to.”
For producers trying to determine what separation could ultimately mean for their operations, Ahmed cautioned against drawing conclusions too soon.
“This particular referendum is just to create the platform for further conversations to stimulate the legal process, to start negotiations with the federal government and all of that.”
He said any move toward separation would still face legal and constitutional processes and Indigenous consultation.
“I think all the voters need to be well aware of what the whole process might look like, and not focus only on the result itself.”
