Prairie Weather (Rural Roots Canada) –  Fall is being fall. From sun to snow, then back to sun, warmer weather will return. So will frost.

The first significant snowfall of the season happened over the Thanksgiving weekend across parts of the prairies. In most areas, accumulation was either minor, or the snow all melted when it hit the ground. But in Saddle Hills County in the Peace region, winter weather really showed up. This photo is from Dale Evans:

The storm system that delivered the first snow and a hard freeze to Alberta over the weekend is still finishing its business, with the tail end pushing into southern Saskatchewan right on Thanksgiving Monday. A second, separate system tracking along the US border then aims at southern Manitoba through the first half of the week, bringing that province its own round of unsettled weather a day or two behind the rest of the Prairies. After that, the pattern calms considerably. A broad area of high pressure takes over much of the country from southern BC to northern Quebec by midweek, keeping conditions generally dry.

The Harvest

Saskatchewan posted the biggest jump of the season, surging from 63 to 82 percent complete as of October 5, with the southwest and west-central regions now at 92 percent and even the slower northeast and east-central regions past 74 percent. Alberta sat at 60 percent as of September 29, the most recent confirmed figure, with canola still the clear laggard at 31 percent province-wide, meaning a meaningful share of what’s still standing in Alberta is exactly the crop most exposed to a weekend of wind, snow, and hard freeze. Manitoba’s October 6 report shows spring wheat 70 to 75 percent done, barley 85 percent, oats 75 to 80 percent, and canola 50 to 55 percent, noting that much of agricultural Manitoba picked up its first frost on October 2. Between the weekend’s Alberta snow event and the system now sweeping into Manitoba, this is a week where producers in both provinces are racing weather on crops still in the field while Saskatchewan’s dramatic progress gives it a bit more breathing room.

Monday

Peace Region

The ridge builds in behind the departed weekend system, bringing quieter conditions and clearing skies through the day, though patchy fog is possible under the ridge overnight where moisture lingers on the ground. Daytime temperatures reach the 7 to 9 degree range. Frost is likely overnight, with the possibility of a hard freeze, so anything still exposed in the field should be treated as at real risk Monday night.

Alberta

Remaining snow flurries clear out as the ridge builds in province-wide, though lingering accumulating snow continues over the far south near Waterton Park and the Cypress Hills before finally tapering off during the day in Waterton and the evening in Cypress Hills. Elsewhere, skies clear but temperatures stay cold behind the departed low. Daytime highs top out in the mid-single digits, colder still in the areas that saw the heaviest snow over the weekend. This is a widespread, hard freeze overnight across southern Alberta, with lows ranging from -4 to -7,  not a borderline frost, and the second such event in a week for parts of the province.

Saskatchewan

The weekend’s snow event pushes east into the province today, giving southwestern Saskatchewan its first snowfall of the fall, with a wintry mix reaching south-central areas as well. For southern Saskatchewan, Thanksgiving Monday is cold and dreary, showers and snowflakes in the air at a minimum, with temperatures hovering three to six degrees above freezing and cooling northeasterly winds making it feel worse. Frost risk is essentially guaranteed overnight.

Manitoba

A second storm system tracking along the US border begins sweeping into southern Manitoba today, arriving roughly a day or two behind the system affecting Alberta and Saskatchewan. Expect increasing cloud and showers through the day, with this system likely to bring the heaviest precipitation totals of the three provinces before it’s done.

Daytime temperatures hold in the mid-to-high single digits, milder than the deep freeze out west but trending down from there. Frost is not expected Monday night in southern Manitoba.

Tuesday

Peace Region

Clearing and cold continues, with the ridge now firmly in control and skies mostly sunny. Daytime highs range from about 8 in Grande Prairie to 10 in Fort St. John. Temperatures could remain rather warm Tuesday night, so there should be no frost concerns.

Alberta

Quiet and cold, with clearer skies helping temperatures recover slightly through the day even as mornings stay frigid. Expect highs in the low-to-mid single digits in northern Alberta, and low double digits in the south. Brooks has a chance to warm to the low teens. With a clear overnight sky, frost and freezing overnight temperatures remain likely across southern Alberta, though frost should not be a concern in central Alberta Tuesday night.

Saskatchewan

The weekend storm’s effects clear out and the sky will be sunny, but colder air settles in across the south as well. Daytime temperatures run in the mid-single digits, with double-digit highs possible near the Alberta boundary. Frost risk stays elevated overnight across the entire province, particularly for anything still standing after the weekend’s precipitation.

Manitoba

The border-tracking system continues affecting the province, with showers lingering, particularly in the south, and cloud cover keeping things damp and cool. The showers will taper off from west to east during the day. Highs hold in the mid-single digits, with overnight lows in southwestern Manitoba nearing or dropping below freezing for the first time this week. East of Brandon, frost is less likely.

Wednesday

Peace Region

Early Wednesday morning, a low-pressure system will move into the Peace Region from north central British Columbia. Just before sunrise, the system will strengthen over Dawson Creek, and rain can be expected throughout the BC and Alberta Peace, with snow in northwestern BC. During the day, the system will continue northeastward into northern Alberta, and precipitation in the Peace will change from steady to showers. With the wet weather tapering off, highs should climb to the 7 to 9 degree range.

Alberta

A low-pressure system from north central BC will cross northern Alberta, bringing significant rainfall to the area. In agricultural zones outside the Peace, it should remain dry and relatively warm. A mild westerly flow will develop around the base of the northern Low, bringing warm air to southern Alberta.  As the map below shows, temperatures in southern Alberta have the potential to reach the mid teens:

Temperatures will cool significantly overnight, and frost risk remains overnight in low-lying areas and river valleys.

Saskatchewan

Dry and quiet across central and southern regions, with an incoming low providing late-day rain to northern Saskatchewan. Elsewhere, the sky will be sunny, allowing temperatures to climb into the double digits during the afternoon, as shown on the map above. Frost risk continues easing but remains possible overnight, especially in coulees and deeper river valleys.

Manitoba

The border system is now long gone, bringing an end to several unsettled days and a return to drier conditions. Daytime temperatures hold in the high single digits, as shown on the map above, with sunny conditions all across southern Manitoba and the Interlake. Frost is not expected overnight as temperatures are expected to remain well above the freezing point.

Thursday

Peace Region

It will be a dry day, though morning sunshine will give way to afternoon clouds. Otherwise, it will be generally quiet, with temperatures reaching the mid-single digits to around 10. No significant weather is expected, and if frost does occur, it will be light at worst.

Alberta

Dry conditions continue, with highs reaching the high single digits to low double digits as the ridge supports a gradual warming trend across the province. Frost risk continues easing, but overnight lows still dip near freezing in many spots. The map below shows expected low temperatures Thursday night/Friday morning:

Saskatchewan

Dry and trending milder, with daytime temperatures in the high single digits. However, as the map above shows, there is a significant frost risk Thursday night/Friday morning in southeastern Saskatchewan.

Manitoba

Quiet to start, though a weak disturbance tracking toward the Great Lakes brings increasing wind to Manitoba later in the day. Temperatures hold in the mid-to-high single digits. Referring to the map above, a significant frost is expected across southern Manitoba Thursday night and Friday morning. Any crops that have survived previous frost outbreaks may not make it through this one, especially in western Manitoba.

Friday

Peace Region, Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba

No significant weather is expected Friday in any of the regions covered by this outlook. All areas will receive abundant sunshine. In Alberta, expect a southwest wind. In Saskatchewan, the wind will come in from the south. Highs will reach the mid teens in Alberta, the lower double digits in Saskatchewan, and the high single digits in Manitoba. In the second half of October, a clear sky at night often brings a frost threat. Not on Friday night. Overnight temperatures across the region will remain well above zero.

Saturday and Sunday

Peace Region

Quiet, settled conditions carry through both days as high pressure moves firmly back into the region. Expect plenty of sunshine with daytime temperatures holding around 10 both Saturday and Sunday, a genuinely pleasant close to the outlook after a rough stretch earlier in the week.

Alberta

Dry and settled across both days, with highs throughout the province in the high teens on Saturday to low double digits on Sunday. This is shaping up as the calmest, mildest stretch of the back half of this outlook, a good window for any remaining fieldwork or equipment winterizing.

Saskatchewan

Dry conditions continue through the weekend, with daytime temperatures similar to Alberta’s, high teens on Saturday, and low double digits on Sunday. No precipitation is expected.

Manitoba

Winds ease Saturday as the departing low pulls away, allowing a lull to develop, with temperatures recovering into the low to mid double digits. Sunday brings calmer conditions still as high pressure fully takes hold behind the week’s wind event. It’s a quiet finish to what was an unsettled week for the province.