Paris, France (Rural Roots Canada) – Global diesel supplies remain under pressure as disruptions to oil shipments and refinery output tighten markets, raising concerns for fuel-dependent industries, according to the International Energy Agency.
In its October Oil Market Report, the IEA says global diesel exports in September were about 700,000 barrels per day lower than a year earlier, while wholesale diesel prices in Europe and the United States reached record highs of roughly US$220 a barrel.
The agency attributes the pressure to reduced exports from the Middle East and Russia, lower refinery output and declining inventories.
The IEA expects diesel markets to remain tight well into 2027.
The report comes amid continued disruption to Middle Eastern oil supplies, with attacks on energy infrastructure and interruptions to tanker traffic contributing to market uncertainty.
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Although global oil supply increased by 2.5 million barrels per day in September as Gulf producers raised output, the agency says the recovery remains vulnerable to further disruptions.
Global observed oil inventories also fell by 10 million barrels in September, leaving stocks about 509 million barrels below their end-February level.
The IEA forecasts global oil demand will decline by an average of 2.6 million barrels per day in 2026, partly reflecting the effects of high prices, supply shortages and a weaker economic outlook.
While the agency projects a recovery in global oil supply in 2027, it warns that the outlook remains dependent on improvements in production and exports.
For agriculture, continued pressure on diesel supplies and prices remains a key factor to watch as fuel costs affect farm operations and the transportation of agricultural commodities.
