Halifax (Rural Roots Canada) – Canadian families can expect to spend nearly $1,000 more on food in 2026, according to the annual Canada Food Price Report.
The annual forecast predicts that food prices will rise by 4% to 6% nationwide, pushing the average family of four’s grocery bill to $17,571.79, an increase of up to $994,63 from 2025.
Prices are now 27% higher than five years ago, and one in four households in Canada is considered food insecure. Alberta, Ontario, Quebec, New Brunswick, and Nova Scotia are expected to face above-average increases, according to the report, produced by a coalition of eight Canadian universities that draw on climate, economic, and geopolitical data to forecast food spending and trends.
“Prices are only one piece of Canada’s complex food industry story,” said Dr. Evan Fraser, Director of the Arrell Food Institute at the University of Guelph. “Prices increase year over year, but reports like this one help us understand that our food sits in the middle of shifting disputes, behaviours, and policies.
Among the biggest influences on prices this year was the GST/HST holiday under the All Canadians Act, which temporarily removed food-related taxes and caused food inflation to drop to -0.6% in January, the first negative rate in over eight years. However, that relief was short-lived as tariffs from the ongoing U.S. trade dispute, coupled with rising production costs, drove prices back up.
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Beef saw the sharpest increases, with prices climbing 19% in early 2025 and sitting 23% above the five-year average due to drought-reduced supply.
“Nearly a decade of drought in the leading beef-producing area of Canada has resulted in the smallest number of cattle since the late 1980s,” says Dr. Stuart Smyth, Campus Lead at the University of Saskatchewan. “Reduced supply and consistent demand create upward pressure. Canadian beef is high quality, and consumers intending to keep buying it will need to be increasingly conscious of optimum purchasing opportunities.”
The report warns that 2026 will bring continued financial strain for Canadians. Although inflation is expected to stabilize around 2%, food affordability will remain a concern. Chicken prices are set to rise as consumers shift away from beef, while labour shortages linked to new temporary foreign worker limits could further increase costs.
“Food inflation is putting Canadians under a lot of pressure, forcing people to make trade-offs every day,” says Dr. Stacey Taylor, Assistant Professor of Business Analytics at Cape Breton University. “These trade-offs range from switching to a cheaper brand to delaying making purchases altogether. Not only is there an issue with food security, but there is also a lot of concern over nutritional security and being able to afford a healthy diet.”
Dr. Sylvain Charlebois, Project Lead at Dalhousie University, says rising grocery costs will continue to test household budgets. “Despite steadier inflation, Canadian families are still feeling the squeeze at the grocery store,” he says. “Our forecast for 2026 makes one thing clear: food affordability will remain a major pressure point in the year ahead.”
