(Rural Roots Canada) – The end of El Nino is allowing wet weather to return to western North America, and we’ll see plenty of evidence of that this week with rain and snow forecast for all three prairie provinces.  We’ve already seen changes in weather patterns that have brought increased moisture to southern Alberta, though the northern part of the province, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba have remained relatively dry so far.  That changes this week, with rain, and yes, SNOW, in the forecast.+

Here are some charts showing how far we’ve already come in southern Alberta.  They show precipitation over the past 90 days, compared to normal.  This first chart is for Calgary. With 106.4 mm of precipitation over the past three months, it’s running at 205% of the long term average:

In Brooks, with 67.2 mm over the past 90 days, they’re running at 215% of normal:

And in Medicine Hat, moisture over the past 90 days was 134% of the long term average:

From Red Deer north, and across Saskatchewan and Manitoba, the precip numbers for the past 90 days are all below average, but we are seeing some encouraging signals that we should not lose hope for some well-timed wet weather.

Anecdotally, we’re hearing farmers and ranchers in southern Alberta are noticing the increase in soil moisture,  especially compared to last year.   Again, this is not the case, though, all across the prairies, especially in Saskatchewan, where it remains remarkably dry.

These next three charts compare precipitation totals in April of this year, to those of the same month a year ago.

Notice a big increase across southern Alberta, especially in Calgary, where rainfall in April 2024 was up 1,046% compared to April 2023!   Drumheller and Red Deer were exceptions.

The trend was opposite in most of Saskatchewan, where April 2024 was considerably drier than April 2023:

Manitoba had a healthy dose of moisture in April, with increases over the same month last year:

By no means does this mean we’re out of drought, but we may finally be headed in the right direction.

And there will be moisture this week.

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Monday:

A mix of sun and cloud can be expected across Alberta with some rain in the Peace. Highs will reach low double digits across the province.  Saskatchewan will be sunny and dry with temperatures close to 20 in most areas south of North Battleford.   Rain or a rain/snow mix will fall in Manitoba south of the Trans Canada Highway, tapering off in the afternoon.

Tuesday:

It’s an active weather day across Alberta and Saskatchewan, with bands of rain crossing southern Saskatchewan.  A low pressure system near Lloydminster will generate both rain and snow for central Alberta, including the Edmonton area Tuesday morning.  The type of precipitation will be dependent on elevation, with snow at the higher levels in the foothills east of Jasper.  Morning snow will fall in the foothills west of Fort Macleod, and through the Crowsnest Pass into British Columbia.  Southern Manitoba will enjoy a sunny day, with subzero temperatures early in the morning.  It may get as cold as -5 south of Winnipeg in the early morning, but only for an hour or two, so it’s unlikely there will be a frost issue.

Wednesday:

The map above shows precipitation for midday Wednesday.  Southern Saskatchewan and Manitoba’s Interlake will receive some moisture, mostly rain (green), though there may be a rain/snow mix north of Dauphin, and north of the Yellowhead Highway toward Saskatoon.  Notice the snow (blue) in Alberta, west of Highway 2, all the way from Edmonton to the US border.  In this area, expect temperatures near or slightly below zero all the way into the early afternoon.  A killing frost is unlikely.  Temperatures will be near long term averages in Saskatchewan and Manitoba Wednesday, despite the clouds and rain.

Thursday:

While the sun shines in northern Alberta, the rest of the prairies will be under cloud cover through most of the day.  Showers are possible in southeastern Alberta, with steadier rain southeast of Regina and near Boissevain and Turtle Mountain in southern Manitoba.  Elsewhere, it should be dry across the prairies with cooler than average temperatures.

Friday:

While it remains dry in Alberta and Saskatchewan, things become quite messy in Manitoba.  A Low pressure system will move northward from Minnesota into northwestern Ontario.  On the backside of the low, snow is expected to fall across the southern half of Manitoba Friday afternoon and evening.  It’s too early to come up with a snow total forecast, but this could be a significant event, with snow and blowing snow potentially disrupting travel.   If you do have to be out in southern Manitoba Friday night, keep up to date on the latest weather forecasts before going out the door.   By contrast, temperatures close to 20 degrees are possible in the far northwestern corner of Alberta.

Saturday and Sunday:

By Saturday morning, the Manitoba snow will extend westward into Saskatchewan (blue), right up to and including the highway between Saskatoon and Regina.   Be aware of any travel advisories before heading out.  The remainder of Saskatchwan will be cloudy and cool, as Albertans enjoy sunshine, and warmer weather, particularly in the northern half of the province.

The storm system generating the snow will move into Hudson Bay on Sunday, though Manitoba will remain cloudy.  The rest of the prairies will be dry, though a band of rain circulating around a Pacific low may try to push into southern Alberta Sunday afternoon.  It will likely collapse in a drying southwesterly wind.

COMPARE TO LAST WEEK: Prairie Weather this Week: April 22