Prairie Weather (Rural Roots Canada) – The state of soil moisture varies across the prairies heading into an El Niño winter

With the 2026 growing season now over, we enter an El Niño winter with varying levels of soil moisture across the region. Abundant in some areas; scarce in others.

New statistics from Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, using data valid October 31, reveal considerable differences in both accumulated precipitation and current soil moisture conditions across the Peace Region, Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba.

There is plenty of good news, particularly across central and northern Alberta and much of Saskatchewan, where soil moisture levels are well above normal in several areas. However, southwestern Alberta and parts of the Peace Region still show moisture deficits.

Here are a couple of perspectives from Agriculture and Agri-Food  Canada:

The precipitation percentile map looks at accumulated precipitation between April 1 and October 31, comparing this year’s totals with historical observations.

What does percentile mean? Take a look at the area in and around central Alberta. Some locations fall into the 98th to 100th percentile for accumulated precipitation. In other words, precipitation totals have been higher than those recorded in approximately 98 to 100 per cent of comparable historical periods.

The soil moisture map below estimates current soil moisture relative to normal conditions for this time of year.

Together, these two maps provide a useful snapshot of the moisture situation heading into winter.

In Alberta, there is considerable contrast between the northern and southern agricultural regions.

Central and northern Alberta have generally enjoyed a favourable moisture picture, with some areas showing soil moisture levels considerably above normal.

The Edmonton region is particularly noteworthy. The soil moisture map identifies a large area with levels exceeding 200 per cent of normal, surrounded by areas generally ranging between 150 and 200 per cent.

This is consistent with the precipitation percentile map, which shows exceptionally high precipitation across portions of central Alberta during the April-to-October period.

The favourable moisture picture extends eastward into portions of central Saskatchewan.

Further south, however, the situation is considerably different.

Southwestern Alberta and areas west and southwest of Calgary show some of the lowest soil moisture readings on the map. There are pockets where estimated soil moisture is 40 per cent or less of normal, with surrounding areas generally in the 40-to-85-per-cent range.  Of course,  anything below 100 percent is considered to be drier than average.

While some parts of Alberta are entering winter with considerable moisture reserves, others would benefit from additional precipitation.

Snowfall over the coming months will be worth watching, particularly in areas like the Peace region where soil moisture remains below normal.

Saskatchewan

Saskatchewan has one of the more encouraging soil moisture pictures on the two maps.

Large portions of central and southern Saskatchewan show soil moisture levels between 150 and 200 per cent of normal. There are also sizable areas where the estimated moisture content exceeds 200 per cent.

The precipitation percentile map reinforces that assessment.

Several areas have recorded precipitation totals ranking among the highest two per cent of historical observations for the April-to-October period.

This is a substantial change from the moisture challenges that have affected portions of the Prairies in recent years.

While there are regional variations, Saskatchewan appears to be entering the winter season with a generally favourable soil moisture position.

That could be important heading into the 2027 growing season.

Adequate soil moisture reserves can provide a helpful starting point for spring seeding, although winter precipitation, snowmelt, spring temperatures and subsequent rainfall will all influence how much of that moisture remains available when the growing season begins.

It is also worth remembering that above-normal soil moisture does not guarantee favourable growing conditions next year. The timing and distribution of spring precipitation will remain important.

Manitoba

Much of Manitoba is showing reasonable to above-normal soil moisture. But not everywhere.

The soil moisture map identifies several areas in western and central Manitoba with readings in the 115-to-150-per-cent range.

Other areas are closer to normal, with some localized pockets showing below-normal moisture.

The precipitation percentile map suggests that much of Manitoba received near-normal to above-normal precipitation between April 1 and October 31.

There are also some localized areas with higher precipitation rankings, particularly toward the western and southern portions of the province.

Overall, Manitoba appears to be entering winter in a reasonably favourable moisture position, although the picture varies depending on location.

Peace Region

The Peace Region deserves particular attention because its moisture picture is considerably different from much of central Alberta and Saskatchewan.

The soil moisture map shows much of the area around Fort St. John in the 60-to-85-per-cent range, indicating below-normal soil moisture.

There are also localized areas with even lower readings.

The precipitation percentile map provides additional context. Portions of the Peace Region have experienced very low to exceptionally low precipitation rankings over the April-to-October period.

Some locations fall into the lowest two per cent of historical precipitation observations.

That is a significant departure from the much wetter conditions across portions of central Alberta and Saskatchewan.

For producers in the BC Peace, the moisture situation heading into winter will be worth monitoring.

Winter snowfall and spring moisture will be particularly important in determining whether the region can improve its soil moisture position before the 2027 growing season gets underway.

It is important to remember that these maps are not a forecast for next year’s growing season. They are a snapshot of current estimated soil moisture and accumulated precipitation.

There is a difference between soil moisture and moisture that will ultimately be available to crops. Soil type, snow cover, frozen ground, spring runoff and the timing of precipitation all play a role.

For now, however, the broad picture is encouraging for much of the agricultural Prairies.

After a growing season that delivered very different precipitation outcomes depending on location, many producers are heading into winter with a considerably better moisture foundation than others.

And for those in the drier pockets of southwestern Alberta and the BC Peace, the winter snowpack will be something to watch particularly closely.