Prairie Weather (Rural Roots Canada) – El Niño’s warm, dry weather continues through the weekend… with hints of change next week!
An updated Canadian Drought Monitor shows, overall, the agricultural areas of the prairies remain in good shape heading into what could be a dry El Niño winter. The monitor’s map shows conditions as of October 31:
From the drought monitor: October was unusually warm across much of the Prairies, with temperatures generally 2 to 5 degrees above normal in many areas. Southern Manitoba even reached 25 degrees late in the month. Several significant weather systems interrupted the warmth, including the first widespread snowfall of the season over the Thanksgiving weekend, which brought heavy snow and freezing rain to parts of the northern Prairies.
Additional storms delivered substantial rain and snow later in the month, with some areas of north-central Alberta receiving up to 400% of normal precipitation. Saskatchewan was also wetter than normal, while Manitoba was notably drier during the second half of October. The additional moisture considerably improved drought conditions across northern Saskatchewan and Manitoba, where moderate and severe drought areas decreased substantially. However, dry conditions expanded northwest of Calgary, where ongoing moisture deficits remain a concern.
By the end of October, 27% of the Prairie region was classified as abnormally dry or experiencing moderate to severe drought, although that included just 6% of the agricultural landscape.
A strong ridge of high pressure is building across the Prairies, bringing plenty of sunshine and temperatures well above seasonal averages. The warmest weather will be in southern Alberta, where some communities could reach the low 20s today. Saskatchewan is also warming, while Manitoba is starting from a much colder position and will take another day or two to catch up.
The ridge will gradually expand eastward through the weekend, allowing the mild air to spread across Saskatchewan and Manitoba. There are a few exceptions to the sunshine, including showers in the BC Peace and northwestern Alberta today. Otherwise, precipitation will be hard to find across the agricultural Prairies through Sunday.
There is one other feature worth watching. Stronger chinook winds are expected to develop in southern Alberta late Saturday and again Sunday morning. By Sunday afternoon, gusty conditions could also affect the Peace regions of BC and Alberta, along with southwestern Alberta near Pincher Creek and Waterton.
Thursday
Peace Region
A few showers are possible Thursday, particularly around Dawson Creek, where the chance of precipitation is higher than in Fort St. John. Daytime temperatures should reach 8 to 10 degrees, followed by overnight lows around -1 to -2. Conditions should become quieter as the day progresses, with a mainly dry pattern expected to follow.
Alberta
Southern Alberta will be exceptionally warm for mid-November, with afternoon highs reaching a range from 18 near Calgary to 21 near Lethbridge. Central Alberta will be cooler, with temperatures generally in the mid-teens.
Wind will be a factor in southern Alberta. Southwest winds along the Highway 3 corridor and south could reach 30 km/h, gusting to 50, while central Alberta could see gusts around 40 km/h.
Saskatchewan
Some early cloud and patchy fog are possible, but skies should clear as the day progresses. The fog was still significant near Davidson at 11 a.m. Thursday:
Afternoon highs will reach 7 to 10 degrees around most of central and southern Saskatchewan.
Southeast winds will be brisk in some areas, reaching 30 km/h with gusts to 50. Overnight temperatures will generally fall to around -1 to +2.
Manitoba
Manitoba will be the cooler part of the Prairies on Thursday. Southern areas, including Winnipeg and Brandon, should see highs around 0 to 2 degrees, with colder conditions farther north. See map below:
Overnight lows in southern Manitoba will fall to approximately -7 to -10°C.
Friday
Peace Region
A cooler day is expected across the Peace Region, with highs generally between 4 and 6 degrees, though Grande Prairie has a chance to reach 10 degrees. Conditions should be mainly dry, although some cloud may linger. Overnight temperatures will remain close to or below freezing.
Alberta
The sunshine continues across Alberta, although temperatures will ease back from Thursday’s remarkable warmth. Southern Alberta should see highs between 12 and 14, while central areas will generally reach 8 to 12. It should be a pleasant November day across most of the province, with no sign of significant precipitation or disruptive wind.
Saskatchewan
Saskatchewan will enjoy another sunny day. Afternoon highs should reach 11 to 16 degrees across the south, and single digits north of the Yellowhead Highway. Overnight lows will generally be near or just below freezing.
The combination of sunshine and mild temperatures will make Friday feel more like early autumn than the middle of November.
Manitoba
Temperatures begin to recover in Manitoba. Southern areas should see highs around 3 to 6 degrees, with central and northern areas generally a little cooler. Skies will be mainly sunny, and the weather should remain dry. After Thursday’s chilly start, the gradual warm-up will be noticeable.
Saturday
Peace Region
Temperatures will dip a little further, with daytime highs generally between 1 and 3 degrees. It should be mainly dry, although a mix of sun and cloud is possible. Overnight temperatures will be below freezing. Wind in the Peace region will be insignificant. That may change on Sunday.
Alberta
Another sunny day is expected across most of Alberta. Southern areas should reach 13 to 15, while central Alberta will see highs generally between 8 and 12°C. A low-pressure system may form near Nanton, so the wind in southern Alberta is expected to pick up as chinook conditions strengthen. While temperatures will remain mild, the wind could make conditions less comfortable, particularly in exposed areas.
Saskatchewan
Saskatchewan should see plenty of sunshine, with daytime highs generally between 8 and 11. It will be a bit warmer in southwestern Saskatchewan, where temperatures could climb to the 12 to 15-degree range. Overnight temperatures will fall to around -2 to 0. There is little indication of precipitation, so the dry pattern continues across the province.
Manitoba
Manitoba will continue to warm, with southern areas reaching approximately 4 to 6 degrees. Northern and central regions will be somewhat cooler, although temperatures should also be trending upward there. Highs will climb above the melting point across the province, except in the far north – north of the 59th parallel.
Expect mostly sunny skies and dry conditions.
Sunday
Peace Region
Temperatures should recover slightly, with daytime highs generally between 3 and 6 degrees. The weather should remain relatively quiet for much of the day, although winds will increase during the afternoon. Keep an eye on those winds, particularly in exposed areas.
Alberta
Southern Alberta should remain mild, with daytime highs between 12 and 15 degrees. Central areas will generally see temperatures from 7 to 11, while northern Alberta will be cooler, with highs ranging from the low single digits to around 6. The main concern will be stronger Chinook winds developing Sunday afternoon, particularly in northwestern and southwestern Alberta. Most areas should remain dry, but it could become quite breezy in those regions.
Saskatchewan
Another sunny day is expected across Saskatchewan. Afternoon highs should reach 10 to 12 degrees south of the Yellowhead Highway. To the north, highs will be in the positive single digits. Overnight lows will drop to 0 to -2.
The dry, mild pattern continues, with no significant precipitation expected.
Manitoba
Sunday should be the warmest day of the four days for much of southern Manitoba. Highs should reach approximately 7 to 9, with even warmer weather in western Manitoba. Double-digit highs are possible from Russell to Dauphin through Brandon to Boissevain. It will be cooler, but still well above average, with positive high temperatures throughout the north. Skies will be mainly sunny, and the province should remain dry.
