Ottawa (Rural Roots Canada) – Canada’s agriculture and agri-food industry is rethinking its reliance on the U.S. as political uncertainty south of the border continues to raise concerns for producers and industry leaders.
A new report from the Angus Reid Institute and the Canadian Agri-Food Policy Institute (CAPI) finds that four out of five agriculture professionals are pessimistic about dealings with the second Trump presidency. Despite those concerns, seven-in-10 say they remain optimistic about the overall future of Canadian agriculture.
The survey of more than 500 stakeholders shows that two-thirds (64%) believe the U.S. represents too big a share of the agri-food trade and that diversification should be a top priority moving forward. Slightly more than half (53%) are confident Canada can make up any U.S.-related losses through other markets, while two-in-five (43%) are a little more cautious.
When asked where future opportunities lie, 83% believe the biggest opportunity is here at home. Outside of Canada, they say Asia (83%) and Europe (82%) are seen as potential growth hotspots.
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Among the top concerns of those surveyed, trade barriers and protectionism are at the top of the list, with 69% citing those issues are worrisome. That’s up slightly from 66% in 2024. Extreme weather and climate change continue to rank among the top ten perceived threats. The political climate in the United States has also become a growing source of anxiety, jumping from 32% to 57% as a reported risk since last year. Rising costs of inputs and commodity price volatility are also climbing the list of industry concerns.
Optimism, however, remains strong. Seventy percent of participants say they’re confident in the sector’s future. Farmers are more cautious at 59% compared to 80% among government officials and 85% in civil society.
Confidence in the government to help either improve or mitigate the biggest challenges is trending positively compared to 2024, but is still largely negative. One-quarter or fewer have confidence across all ten areas.
When it comes to what Ottawa should prioritize, improving interprovincial trade ranks highest at 42%. Expanding international market success and strengthening trade policy advocacy also top the list at 40% and 34%, respectively. Notably, the call for better interprovincial trade has surged from 15% last year.
Overall, the report says the elephant in the room is Canada’s relationship turmoil with the U.S. The Canadian economy has faced historic levels of uncertainty in 2025, with tariff threats and implementation on Canadian goods. Still, even with tensions between the two nations, along with climate uncertainty and rising costs, producers are cautiously optimistic about the future of the Canadian agriculture sector.
