Prairie Weather (Rural Roots Canada) – Spring weather persists in southern Alberta and Saskatchewan, while the north gets snow.
After a week of winter storms and snowfall warnings across much of the prairies, there isn’t much to show. Despite blasts of stormy weather from time to time, much of the southern prairies remains largely free of snow. This image was captured on Sunday, March 1, near Cowley, in southwestern Alberta:
The situation is much the same in southwestern Saskatchewan, which has little to no measurable snow on the ground. All winter long, most of Saskatchewan’s accumulating snow has been along or north of the Yellowhead Highway. So, there is considerably more snow in places like Clavet:
And, in southern Manitoba, the ground is also covered in snow, though accumulations this winter have been below average:
While snow is expected across the prairies this week. Amounts in the southern prairies are expected to be minor in most areas. The map below shows snow expected up until the evening of Sunday, March 8:
The northern Prairies will continue to receive steady snowfall this week, mainly north of the Yellowhead Highway. The bigger weather story unfolds farther south.
A Pacific trough moving eastward will trigger the development of a low-pressure system over Montana and Wyoming on Monday. As this system tracks east, it will extend an inverted trough across the Southern Prairies. It could bring the most meaningful moisture in weeks to drought-stressed regions of southern Saskatchewan and Manitoba.
Temperatures across the southern Prairies are expected to remain near to above seasonal averages, with no major Arctic outbreak anticipated.
Monday
Alberta
Heavy snow continues across northern Alberta, including the Peace River region and Swan Hills, where totals are expected to approach 15 cm. Even higher amounts are possible in the northern foothills due to upslope flow developing around an Arctic high and a clipper forming in southern Alberta. Significant snowfall is not expected in the south, where it will remain mostly sunny, but snow will stretch across north-central Alberta from west to east. Southern areas will stay dry but windy, with Pincher Creek expected to see gusts up to 70 km/h, creating difficult travel conditions.
Temperatures will be very warm south of Highway 3, reaching the low to mid-teens, while south-central Alberta will see highs between 3 and 7 degrees. In contrast, north-central regions will remain much colder, with daytime highs ranging from -3 to -11.
Saskatchewan
In Saskatchewan, southwestern areas will experience another breezy and mild day, with temperatures climbing above freezing south of the Trans-Canada Highway. Highs of -5 to -10 are expected as far north as Saskatoon, while northern regions turn sharply colder as an Arctic ridge builds in. Snow is likely along a cold front north of the Yellowhead Highway toward North Battleford and Meadow Lake, where up to 5 to 10 cm may accumulate. Winds will be light from the east, keeping wind chill impacts minimal.
Manitoba
In Manitoba, temperatures will rise slightly in southern regions on Monday. South of the lakes, highs will range from 0 to -10, while the Interlake will see highs between -5 and -10. Farther north, temperatures will remain near or below -20. A band of organized snow associated with a low-pressure system to the north will move eastward into Ontario during the afternoon, dragging a cold front across central Manitoba. This will bring a period of light snow, although most key agricultural areas are expected to remain dry.
Tuesday
Alberta
A weak upper ridge, a surface low, and a westerly wind will combine to give chinook conditions to southern Alberta. There will be some sun mixed with chinook clouds. South of the Trans Canada highway, temperatures will rise to the double digits, perhaps all the way into the low teens. The wind will be brisk, especially near Fort MacLeod and Lethbridge, but should remain below warning level.
Highs in central regions will reach the -9 to -13 range, and further north, the temperature will remain near or below -20. Central and northern Alberta will remain cloudy, and it will snow. Expect snow through the day from Lloydminster to Edmonton to Grande Prairie and the Peace Region. Expect 5 to 10 cm.
Saskatchewan
Mild Pacific air will flow into southern Saskatchewan, and double-digit high temperatures are expected along and south of the Trans Canada highway west of Regina. To the east, highs will come in near zero. It will remain below freezing across the rest of the province. In central Saskatchewan, highs will range from -5 to -10, and remain below -15 to the north. The far north will be sunny, but in between, snow will fall in north central regions, along a dissipating cold front. Accumulations of 3 to 5 cm can be expected.
Manitoba
The cold front that brought snow to the Interlake on Monday will dissipate, but continue to produce light snow in the northern Interlake. Accumulations won’t be meaningful, likely less than 5 cm. The rest of Manitoba will be partly cloudy, with dry weather and perhaps rather breezy. In southern Manitoba and the Interlake, expect highs from -5 to -10. Highs of -15 to -15 can be expected in north central and northern regions. In the far north, highs will stick close to the -30 mark.
Wednesday
Alberta
Snow will continue through north central and northern Alberta, again, north of the Yellowhead Highway. 5 to 10 cm of snow could fall on Wednesday, though most areas will be on the lower end of the scale. South of the Yellowhead, snow is not expected, as westerly wind will continue the pattern of warm and dry weather. Lethbridge, Milk River, Taber and Bow Island can expect highs in the double digits again, perhaps in the low teens. From Medicine Hat west to Calgary, expect positive highs.
North of the Trans Canada highway, temperatures will remain below the freezing point, allowing for the snow in northern Alberta to accumulate. The snow in northern Alberta will taper off late in the day, and we’ll see some clearing in the Grande Prairie region.
Saskatchewan
It will be another day of warm, breezy and dry weather, as temperatures again climb above the melting point in southern Saskatchewan. South of Highway 13, highs will again reach double digits. It will be a bit cooler closer to the Trans Canada highway, and to the north, temperatures will remain below freezing. Highs in central Saskatchewan will cool to about -15. A northwesterly flow will bring some snow into central Saskatchewan during the day. The snow will miss the agricultural south. Areas that get snow on Wednesday can expect about 5 cm.
Manitoba
The northern Interlake will be hit with 3 to 6 cm of snow on Wednesday, with dry weather in both northern and southern Manitoba. To the south, it will be relatively mild, with highs between -3 and -8. In central Manitoba, where it snows, temperatures should break near -15. In the north, the sky will be clear, but it’s because of arctic high pressure that will keep afternoon temperatures in the -20s. Further north, at Tadoule Lake, it may get no warmer than -35, with wind chills in the -40s. This is the first week of meteorological spring, but those in northern Manitoba will find that hard to believe.
Thursday
Alberta and Saskatchewan
The first opportunity of the week for measurable snow in southern Alberta and Saskatchewan happens on Thursday. It’s not a huge amount of snow, but it will be measurable, falling along or just north of the Trans Canada Highway. The map below shows snow expected in the 24-hour period from early evening Wednesday to early evening Thursday:
The northern portions of Alberta and Saskatchewan will also experience light snow Thursday, from a low near the boundary with the Northwest Territories. Freezing rain can’t be ruled out for parts of southern Saskatchewan, near Rouleau, Avonlea, and Moose Jaw, and in the southeast near Estevan.
Highs of 5 to 10 degrees can be expected in southern and central Alberta and southwestern Saskatchewan. Temperatures elsewhere in the two provinces will be near the seasonal averages, in the negative single digits.
Manitoba
A quick look at the map above shows dry weather is expected for most of Manitoba. In the Interlake and south, temperatures will reach highs between -7 and -11, and northern regions will warm up a bit from the frigid cold of Wednesday, as highs climb to near -20. 5-10 cm of snow can be expected in the far north. The only agricultural area to get any measurable snow will be near Dauphin and Swan River, with perhaps 3 to 5 cm.
Friday
Alberta
The stretch of warm weather continues for southern Alberta, where highs will reach 7 to 10 degrees. It will be mainly sunny with cloudy periods in the south. Central Alberta high temperatures will reach 0 or slightly above. As far north as Fort McMurray, highs will come close to the melting point, though that part of the province will remain cloudy and will see snow due to a fairly potent low-pressure system on the western edge of Wood Buffalo. In that area, 10-15 cm of snow will be possible. In Fort McMurray itself, look for 5-10 cm. Snow is not expected south of the Yellowhead.
Saskatchewan
Due to the local terrain, there could be a few cm of snow on Friday in the Saskatchewan portion of Cypress Hills. Snow is also expected to fall in the forests of far northwestern Saskatchewan. Elsewhere, including in most agricultural areas, the weather will remain dry. Seasonable or slightly warmer than average temperatures are expected with highs of 7-9 degrees in southwestern Saskatchewan west of Moose Jaw. Central and northern regions will reach highs of -5 to -11. Most of the province will see at least some sunshine, though clouds will move into northwestern Saskatchewan in the afternoon.
Manitoba
An inverted trough from a low-pressure system in South Dakota will push moisture northward. For southern Manitoba, it means the possibility of freezing rain along Highway 12 south of Steinbach, and east to Whiteshell. Travel on Highway 12 and Highway 1 in southeastern Manitoba could become hazardous. It’s best to stay updated with local weather forecasts if you’re planning to travel in that area on Friday. From Brandon to Winnipeg and north to the Interlake, expect about 4 to 7 cm of snow.
The city of Winnipeg itself will be on the southern edge of the precipitation and may get only 1 cm of snow. All that said, there is plenty of uncertainty, as this forecast is several days into the future, and there is a possibility the precipitation could remain south of the border. High temperatures in southern Manitoba will range from -7 to -10. Central regions will peak from -12 to -15, with the north staying in the -20s.
Saturday and Sunday
Colder weather returns to the prairies on the weekend, with the exception of southwestern Alberta. That’s the only area expected to rise above the melting point. The rest of the prairies will return to negative values on Saturday with even colder weather on Sunday. However, an upper-level trough will cross Saskatchewan and Manitoba from west to east, bringing snow to both provinces over the weekend. Snow is also expected in southern Alberta starting Saturday afternoon. A low in the northern US will generate the Alberta snow, which will continue on Sunday. Again, because of the time involved, uncertainty is high, and we’ll continue to keep an eye on this in preparation for Thursday’s weather update on this site.
Soil Moisture
The snow expected for Southern Saskatchewan and Manitoba is good news, but not a drought-buster. Many areas remain snow-free or patchy. We need this week’s inverted trough to over-deliver to start replenishing topsoil reserves.
