Prairie Weather (Rural Roots Canada) – Has winter finally left us? Don’t hold your breath. More snow hits the prairies this week.
A warm and sunny start to the week – but don’t let that fool you. As the map below shows, we’re in for considerable snow this week from eastern Alberta to western Manitoba. Big accumulations are expected in Saskatchewan and northern Manitoba. The map shows snowfall totals expected by midnight Sunday night:
The broader pattern continues with the warm air mass over Western Canada through the mid week. There may even be some thunderstorms on the prairies with increasing afternoon instability. After mid week, the weather pattern changes, becoming more unsettled, and in some areas, snow will fall.
Monday
Peace Region
Warm weather is expected Monday and beyond for the Peace Region, thanks to an upper ridge centred over western North America. Temperatures in the region will climb to the mid-teens, which is about 5 degrees above average. The wind will be light, and will come from the south, reinforcing the mild air mass. Excellent drying conditions are expected as the mild weather is allowing soil temperatures to rise, especially near Beaverlodge and Spirit River.
Our partners at Vista radio are reporting that despite recent snow, drought remains a concern for the BC Peace region: B.C. forecasters expect mix of flooding, drought amid active spring wildfire season
Alberta
Warm and dry weather will continue to dominate Alberta south of the Peace region. Temperatures in the mid to upper teens will extend as far north as Edmonton. A slight northwesterly flow off the Rockies will keep the sky clear over the foothills. A low near the Yukon/Northwest Territories boundary will spread showers into northwestern Alberta, but there will be little impact outside of the boreal forest. Patchy fog or low cloud may develop along the Alberta-Saskatchewan boundary.
Saskatchewan
In western Saskatchewan, the warming trend continues, with temperatures reaching the mid-teens or better in the Kindersley and Swift Current areas. Residual cold air lingers in eastern Saskatchewan, but temperatures will be close to the long-term averages, reaching the high single digits or low double digits. Outside of some snow in the northern Boreal forests, it will be a dry day in Saskatchewan. However, as we see in the map above, this window of warm and dry weather will likely disappear in a matter of days, with the return of colder weather and snow. (see below)
Manitoba
Monday will be the most impactful day of the precipitation event in northern Manitoba. A low-pressure system, spinning up along a front in the southern Northwest Territories will track southeastward into northern Manitoba. Snow in the Lynn Lake area in the morning will move toward Thompson and Gillam throughout the day. 5-10 cm of snow can be expected in some areas, though on the southern edge of the system, the snow may mix with rain, reducing the totals. In southern Manitoba’s agricultural areas, it will stay dry with temperatures peaking n the high single digits to low double digits.
Tuesday
Peace Region
Favourable conditions continue for field work. Light moisture from a few days ago will have penetrated the soil surface in most areas. Tuesday will see a continuation of the dry weather. Under a mix of sun and cloud, highs in the Peace Region should reach 15 to 17 degrees, and the wind will be light, out of the west.
Alberta
Warm air remains across Alberta Tuesday, with highs climbing toward the low 20s in southern Alberta, and to the mid-teens in the central part of the province. It will be one of the warmest days of the season. There will be some thunderstorm potential in the afternoon and evening as daytime heating generates some modest instability, as a weak disturbance moves through. If thunderstorms do develop, they will be brief and isolated. Safety tip: When thunder roars, stay indoors. Under these conditions, soil temperatures are climbing rapidly. Soil temperatures are approaching seeding thresholds for an increasing number of crops, notably in the Lethbridge, Brooks, and Lacombe areas.
Saskatchewan
Dry weather expands across Saskatchewan as the northern precipitation system leaves the province. Behind it, the northern sky will be partly to mainly cloudy. In the south, a warm ridge of high pressure pushes in, and highs in the 20s can be expected in southwestern Saskatchewan, including Swift Current and Assiniboia, which is well above average. Thunderstorm potential will increase across the south and southwest during the afternoon, especially from Swift Current south to the US border. Any storms will be isolated and brief.
Manitoba
The system that has been giving snow to northern Manitoba will exit the province to the east, only to be followed by a second system on the same track. So, by the afternoon, snow will redevelop in northern Manitoba. When one system follows another like this, it’s called training. Once that second system passes through, dry weather returns, and the snow will begin to melt. In the south, a westerly flow will continue to build milder air. It will be mostly to partly cloudy in southern Manitoba, until clearing begins in the afternoon or evening. Western Manitoba will be warmer with highs in the low 20s. In southeastern Manitoba, expect temperatures to peak in the mid-teens.
Wednesday
Peace Region
A weak frontal system sweeps through the Peace Region, bringing a chance of showers or a brief mix of rain and wet snow, particularly over higher terrain near the foothills west of Grande Prairie. Temperatures will dip slightly to highs near 12 to 15 degrees before a return to warmer weather. Overnight lows should stay above freezing, in the range of 1 to 3 degrees. Any precipitation today will be beneficial for soil moisture recharge ahead of seeding. Producers should monitor conditions carefully. Even a brief cold snap behind the front could cause issues if any early-emerging crops are in the ground.
Alberta
A weak storm track developing along the Mackenzie Valley begins to bring more active weather to northern and central Alberta. A weak disturbance moves through the province, bringing some cloud increase and a chance of showers across central Alberta, including the Edmonton region. Southern Alberta retains more of the warm, settled pattern with highs near 15 to 18 degrees. The wet weather in central Alberta will track through the south late in the day, bringing cooler weather and rain to southern Alberta in the late afternoon and evening. The moisture will be reinforced by a low in Montana that will generate an upslope flow, meaning accumulations could be significant in the foothills and the eastern slopes of the Rocky Mountains. The map below shows rainfall expected on Wednesday. This will likely change as we get closer to the event:
Note that the band of precipitation between the north Peace region and Fort McMurray will likely fall in the form of snow. The rest of it is rain, with the exception of higher elevations in the Rockies. The week-long warm spell will show its first signs of breaking down as the ridge axis begins to shift slightly eastward. The BC Interior has been generating thunderstorm activity during this warm spell, and some of that energy could propagate eastward into Alberta through the day.
Saskatchewan
The warm pattern continues across much of Saskatchewan with highs in the 14 to 28 degree range from Saskatoon to Regina. Southwestern Saskatchewan may see some thunderstorm activity during the afternoon. Skies are partly to mostly cloudy, with the warm sector remaining in place ahead of the approaching weak front. Confidence in precipitation details drops somewhat by this period, but the overall warm and active pattern, including the potential for scattered showers and thunderstorms, appears likely to persist through midweek. Excellent growing degree day accumulation continues this week. This is a meaningful warm spell. South of the Trans Canada highway, high temperatures will climb to the low 20s. North of Saskatoon, however, it remains cold, with single-digit high temperatures at best.
Manitoba
A warm, spring day for most of Manitoba. After a cool, stormy start to the week in the north, Wednesday brings temperatures well above normal. Winnipeg should reach the high teens, maybe even 20 degrees, with a mix of sun and cloud. Brandon and the southwest are similarly warm, with highs between 14 and 18. Thunderstorm activity is possible across southeastern Manitoba and the Westman region during the afternoon, consistent with the broader week-long pattern of instability over the warm sector of the western Canadian ridge. The warm, drying conditions mid-week will be a welcome development for producers wanting to get to work on the fields. Again, though, they should watch for rapidly developing thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Thursday
Peace Region
Conditions improve across the Peace Region following the midweek frontal passage. A mix of sun and cloud returns with temperatures recovering to the 13 to 16 degree range. Overnight lows near zero. It’s a quiet day, with the possible exception of a few afternoon flurries in Grande Prairie. The pattern is becoming more variable as the western ridge slowly relaxes, and a low-pressure system way east in southern Manitoba strengthens.
Alberta
A powerful low-pressure system will move from northeastern Montana into southern Manitoba during the day, strengthening into a significant storm that will draw colder air into Alberta and generate showers and flurries across most of the province. The moisture will fall in northeastern Alberta in the morning, spreading south during the day. Many areas will see a mix of rain and snow, as high temperatures will range from 2 to 4 degrees. It will be a cold, damp day across Alberta, and the wind will be strong enough to make it feel as if temperatures were actually below the freezing point.
Saskatchewan
A storm system moving into southern Manitoba from northeastern Montana and North Dakota will strengthen and develop significant snowfall across central and northern Saskatchewan, and a mix of rain and snow in the south. The wind will be strong, and it will come from the north. In the blustery conditions, with snow and blowing snow, high temperatures may be close to the freezing mark, but it will feel much colder. It’s a day to stay inside, if at all possible. The map below shows total snowfall for Thursday:
The above map only references snow. In southern areas, where the map remains white, it won’t be dry…it’ll rain.
Manitoba
A major storm strengthens as it moves into Manitoba from the southeast, reaching Winnipeg in the late afternoon. The storm will produce rain across southern and central Manitoba, with snow further north. The precipitation will be heavy, the wind will be strong, and travel will be impacted. Across the province, between 10 to 20 mm of rain, or up to 30 cm of snow (in the north) can be expected. Coming from the south, the storm will push warm air in ahead of it, so temperatures in southern and central Manitoba will climb to the 16 to 20 degree range.
Friday
Peace Region
Partly cloudy skies return to the Peace Region with a brief period of more settled conditions. Highs will likely range from 12 to 15 degrees. The larger-scale pattern shows a shift toward a more active storm track developing along the Mackenzie Valley axis. Final soil assessments ahead of any decisions about seeding timing should ideally be completed by this point, as weather confidence decreases beyond the weekend.
Alberta
Conditions remain variable across Alberta. Central and southern Alberta see a mix of sun and cloud with highs near 5 degrees. It will be cool. Snow will continue to taper off slowly in eastern Alberta as the Manitoba low pulls away. Northern Alberta may see cloud increasing ahead of the next disturbance tracking through the Mackenzie Valley system. The broad warm spell that dominated the first part of the week is pretty much over. That warm spell has been broadly beneficial for spring seeding preparations.
Saskatchewan
High temperatures will be consistent across Saskatchewan. Consistently cold. Near -3 to -4, as cold air continues to circulate around the Manitoba low, as it takes a left turn and moves north. The Low will also pump snow into the province, along with a north wind. It will be another blustery day, with wind chill near -10. Winter makes another appearance in the middle of spring.
Manitoba
The storm that brought rain and snow to Manitoba on Thursday continues to do the same on Friday. It will turn toward the north, heading from Winnipeg in the general direction of York Factory. As it moves to the north, the precipitation will taper off in the south by the end of the day. Afternoon high temperatures will be with a few degrees either side of zero. The map below shows 48-hour precipitation totals for Thursday and Friday. Central Manitoba gets soaked!
Saturday and Sunday
The VERY slowly departing Manitoba low will continue to produce snow across both Saskatchewan and Manitoba through Saturday and Sunday, with little change in temperatures, which will peak within four degrees either side of zero. It will also be a cool weekend in Alberta and the Peace Country, with highs from 2 to 5 degrees both days. It’s unlikely this will be one of your favourite spring weekends.
READ: Spring Snow Eases Drought
