Prairie Weather This Week

Prairie Weather (Rural Roots Canada) – It’s another rainy week on the prairies, but this time – mainly in the north

More rain! The jet stream will stay strong and active over the Prairies, bringing a parade of systems and several opportunities for rain. The heaviest totals this week are likely in central Alberta and most of Saskatchewan and Manitoba, with some areas potentially seeing 50 mm or more.

Forecasts for a wet weather last week proved true in central Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba, and this week, even more rain is expected over many of the same areas. Thursday was a particularly stormy day, with dozens of hailstorms, and spectacular cloud formations. Kristen Lepp of Rural Roots Canada took a shot of a cloud known as a mothership. Isolated, cylindrical, with a wall cloud at the bottom.

If rotating, mothership clouds can be dangerous, as they commonly produce tornadoes. This one did not. The picture was taken in Alberta, southeast of Calgary.

Many such storms rolled across the prairie last week, producing damaging hail and significant rainfall.

Here are rainfall totals in mm for the first nine days of August.

Alberta totals:

Location	Rainfall Aug 1 to Aug 9
Edson	67.6
Dogpound	53.8
Lavoy	44.2
Calgary	42.4
Wainwright	33.3
Cochrane	31.5
Edmonton	24.9
Bow Island	22.4
Vauxhall	16.0
Enchant	13.7

Saskatchewan totals:

Location	Rainfall total Aug 1 to Aug 9 (mm)
Wynyard	65.0
Shaunavon	50.8
Esterhazy	50.1
Davin	49.5
Quinton	44.5
Bradenbury	40.1
Saskatoon	39.9
Regina	22.7

Manitoba totals:

Location	Rainfall total Aug 1 to Aug 9 (mm)
High Bluff	83.8
Argyle	56.6
Boissevain	52.6
Poplar Point	48.8
Winnipeg	44.4
Pilot Mound	32.0
Virden	32.0
Morden	31.0
Morris	22.9

Rainfall data: CoCoRaHS and ECCC

This week, there is more rain to come. However this time, the heaviest rain will fall in northern Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba where it will hopefully aid in the firefighting effort. Agricultural areas in the southern parts of all three prairie provinces will get some rain this week, but totals are likely to stay below 20 mm. In the Lethbridge area of southern Alberta, totals will struggle to reach 5 mm. The map below shows expected rain totals by the evening of Sunday, August 17:

Monday

Alberta

Isolated showers and storms, along with strong wind is expected throughout central Alberta. The showers and storms will be localized, with most of the region enjoying sunshine. Southeastern Alberta, including Brooks and Drumheller will be quite warm, with highs near 30, but temperatures will be just short of the criteria for a heat warning. Elsewhere in Alberta, expect highs betwen 20 and 25 degrees. High pressure will keep the sky clear through the evening and overnight, and no significant weather is expected.

Saskatchewan

Circulation around a northern Manitoba low will create a north wind across Saskatchewan, as it drags rainfall across the province from west to east. In the north, there will be some strong thunderstorms with marginally severe hail. In the south, the showers and storms will be more isolated and less severe. The north wind will keep it cool, with highs reaching the high teens or low 20s.

Manitoba

More rain, at times heavy, will fall across southern Manitoba Monday, with the ever-present threat of heavy rain and hail. In western Manitoba, the rain will be heavier in the morning, and taper off in the afternoon as the storms move east. Some of the heaviest afternoon rain will fall near the city of Winnipeg ….heading east to Ontario in the evening. The Winnipeg area could get 20-30 mm of rain. High temperatures in southern Manitoba should reach the mid 20s. In the north, it will be cooler, with afternoon temperatures in the high teens.

Tuesday

Alberta

A developing low pressure system in northern BC and Alberta will bring scattered showers and storms to central Alberta, with the risk of severe storms. South of Red Deer, it should stay dry, however, there is uncertainty. It is possible some storms will reach the southern part of the province in the afternoon. The most recent forecasts should be consulted before planning any outdoor work or activities for Tuesday afternoon in southern Alberta. Part of the reason for the uncertainty is heat. It’s expected some hot air will push northward from Montana, boosting temperatures into the 30s in southern Alberta. That, combined with the unstable air associated with the northern Alberta low, could help trigger storms in the south. It will be a warm day across the southern half of of Alberta, with highs from 25 to 30 and beyond. The rainy weather produced in the north by the low, will keep temperatures to the 15 to 20 degree range.

Saskatchewan

In the far north, as a low pressure system in Alberta gets closer, rain will develop in northwestern Saskatchewan. The rest of the province will remain dry, with the risk of convective showers and thundershowers in the southwestern part of the province late in the day. The chance of these showers and storms is very slight. Otherwise, it will be mainly sunny across most of the province, with highs in the mid to high 20s.

Manitoba

Rain will continue in southern Manitoba in the early morning. The low pressure system generating the rain moves further into Ontario during the day, and the rain over Manitoba will follow suit, and taper off as it drifts east. Highs in southern Manitoba will reach the high teens and low 20s. North of the Manitoba lakes, expect highs of only 10-15 degrees, with periods of light rain.

Wednesday

Alberta

A strong upper trough moves in, and showers and storms will develop across much of the province, with a risk of severe thunderstorms in central and southern regions. There is the potential for locally heavy rainfall. Far southern areas of Alberta, south of highway 3, are likely to miss out on the rainfall, and instead remain dry and very warm. In the Medicine Hat area, highs of 30 degrees will be possible. Elsewhere though, with the wet and stormy weather, highs will be limited to the mid to high teens. The map below shows expected rainfall from Tuesday evening to Wednesday evening:

Some of the storms in central Alberta could become severe, with a chance of hail and heavy rainfall.

Saskatchewan

The map above shows heavy rain in northern Saskatchewan, which will help the fire situation. However, there will also be lightning, which may not be helpful at all. It will rain in the southern half of the province as well, but amounts will only reach 10 mm at most. Strong storms are possible in southwestern Saskatchewan. Before the storms develop, it will be hot, with temperatures in the region climbing to 30 degrees. Thunderstorms are also likely to develop from Saskatoon north in the late afternoon and early evening.

Manitoba

Most of the day will be dry and sunny across Manitoba, but late in the day, some showers will arrive in the west, along the Saskatchewan boundary. The heavier rain shown on the map above, refers to precipitation that would have fallen between 7:00 pm and midnight the previous evening. Those areas will be dry on Wednesday. Despite the dry weather and expected sunshine, it won’t be all that warm, with highs in the high teens and low 20s.

Thursday

Alberta

As an upper level low crosses Alberta, rain bands will continue to produce precipitation in central and northern regions Some areas could receive 10-20 mm of rain, though the areas of rain will be limited to northeastern Alberta, from Cold Lake to Fort McMurray. In the southern part of the province, there will be a mix of sun and cloud, with a slight possibility of late day showers, which, if they occur, will provide minimal rainfall. North of the Trans Canada Highway, daytime highs Thursday will be cool, in the range of 15 to 20 degrees. South of Highway 1, expect highs in the low to mid 20s.

Saskatchewan

There will be widespread showers and thundershowers across Saskatchewan on Thursday, due to a strong low in the northern part of the province, which moves into Manitoba by the end of the day. . And while locally heavy rain may be of benefit to dryland crops, there could also be some temporary flooding, particularly in areas where the soil is soaked from previous rain. All that said, the heaviest rain will be near the centre of the low, in the forests of northern Saskatchewan. 40-50 mm of rain could fall there. In that heavier rain, temperatures may only reach 10 degrees. In the south, expect highs in the high teens to low 20s.

Manitoba

A sharp cold front from a strong Low in northern Saskatchewan will drag its way across Manitoba through the day and into the evening. By midday, the front will extend from Morden to the Interlake, and by late afternoon it will go through Winnipeg. Along the front there will be showers and thunderstorms, starting in western and central areas, then moving east into the evening. There may be severe storms along the front, especially in the evening when the front is east of the Red River Valley and closer to the Ontario boundary. Severe storms could form rapidly in this area, with hail up to 6 cm, 120 km/h wind, and a chance for a tornado. Ahead of the cold front, afternoon highs will reach the mid to high 20s.

Friday

Alberta

The upper level low departs, and a broad surface ridge of high pressure forms over Alberta, and the circulation around the high may lead to some showers in central and southeastern Alberta, drawing moisture in from the US. Most of the province will be mainly cloudy with some sunny breaks. . In the far south, highs will range between 25 and 30, with highs in the low to mid 20s elsewhere.

Saskatchewan

As high pressure takes over and pushes the previous day’s rain away, drier weather returns to Saskatchewan. However, some scattered showers can’t be ruled out in the soutwestern part of the province. Accumulations are not expected to be significant. With the drier weather, temperatures will return to the low to mid twenties in the south, but it will remain cooler than average in central and northern portions of Saskatchewan.

Manitoba

The Low that gave so much rain to the northern prairies during the week, moves into Hudson Bay Friday, and the rain finally begins to taper off in the far north. In southern Manitoba, expect a mainly sunny day with a westerly wind. Late in the day, there is still a chance of isolated showers and storms in the the south, particularly near the North Dakota border. Significant rainfall is not expected. Highs in the south will be near, or perhaps slightly above, 20 degrees.

Saturday

Alberta

In the agricultural south, the day will begin under a weakening ridge of high pressure, which should mean morning sun in most areas. However, as the high continues to weaken, the weather will change and shoers will become a bit more widespread. The most frequent shower activity will occur in the northern forests, but in the south, late in the day, expect increasing cloud as a disorganized U.S. low over WY/MT spreads a trough north; develop, mainly by night. Earlier in the day, it will be quite warm across the south, with highs in the 25 to 30 range, even going above 30 in southeastern Alberta. It will cool considerably once the rain arrives. Despite the weather change, rainfall amounts will be minimal.

Saskatchewan

There will be a dry and pleasant start to the day, but rain creeps into the western part of the province during the afternoon, as the trough over Alberta moves east. Scattered showers can be expected. Those showers will become more organized and intensify during the evening, forming a band of rain overnight covering most of the province. With the trough setting in over Saskatchewan Saturday night, middle-of-the-night thunderstorms can’t be ruled out. Before the arrival of the rain, it will get quite hot in southern Saskatchewan, with widespread highs of 25-30 degrees. South of the Trans Canada Highway, most areas have a decent chance at reaching 30.

Manitoba

It’ll be a terrific day for field work in Manitoba. The wind is lighter, humidity is lower, and rain is not expected as the province will be dominated by a high pressure system. Despite the abundance of sunshine, it won’t be uncomfortably hot. Highs if 15 to 20 can be expected north of the Trans Canada highway. To the south, highs could range between 20 and 25.

Sunday

Alberta

Except for the far north, where it will rain, most of Alberta can expect a dry, sunny day, with some increasing cloud in the afternoon. No significant weather is expected over agricultural regions, and it will be warm with highs in the high 20s.

Saskatchewan

A surface low starts off strong in west central Saskatchewan in the morning. It weakens fast as it moves across the province. As the animated map below shows, the precipitation will fizzle out rather fast as the day goes on. The first frame of the loop is valid at midnight Sunday morning, and the last frame is valid at midnight Monday morning:

Expect the area of rain to include thunderstorms, It will be warm in Saskatchewan Sunday, with highs in the mid 20s.

Manitoba

As shown on the map above, southern agricultural regions of Manitoba will be dry Sunday, while rain reaches the north central part of the province. Storms south of the border are anticipated to stay there, but a small shift in the upper flow could steer some of that rain into southern Manitoba. Possible, but not likely. Still unable to tap into warmer weather to the west, Manitoba’s high temperatures will be in the comfortable range of the low to mid 20s.

Event Forecast

Open Farm Days – Alberta

Open Farm days happens this weekend, August 16 and 17 across Alberta. Events will be held at farms and ranches across the province. Rural Roots Canada will attend Open Farm Days in Vermilion at Chatsworth Farm and in Lethbridge at Farming Smarter on Saturday, August 16th and, of course, we’d love to see you there. Across Alberta, the weather appears mostly favorable for this province wide open house. Here are specific forecasts for the events we’ll be attending: