Prairie Weather (Rural Roots Canada) – The month has changed; the weather hasn’t

 

After a string of warmer than average summers from 2021 to 2024,  this season has cooled off.   Temperatures across the prairies have been much closer to normal, and heat stress on crops has not been as much of a factor in recent years.   In many areas it will be a good crop year.   However, there have been other problems that will prevent this from being a great crop year….problems ranging from too little precipitation to too much.

We’ve mentioned here before that  southwestern Saskatchewan, central Alberta and parts of central Saskatchewan have received adequate or more than adequate moisture, while southern Manitoba, eastern Alberta, and northwestern Alberta have suffered through a dry year.   This is largely due to a weather pattern that changed little during July.     Now it’s August.   And, in the first week of August, there is potential for significant rain across south central Saskatchewan, and central Manitoba.

Southwestern Manitoba, which has been dry this season, may again miss out on the heavier rainfall.   The map below shows expected rainfall up until early evening Sunday August 10, according to the Canadian GDPS model:

 

 

The numbers for central Ssskatchewan and west central Manitoba are extraordinary.   Suspicious, perhaps.    So, for comparison, here is the outloook for the same time period produced by the American GFS model:

 

 

The numbers are considerably different, but the message is the same….it’s going to be a wet week for south central Saskatchewan and west central Manitoba.  The heavier precipitation amounts, though, are due to a storm that will reach the area on Tuesday, and continue into Wednesday.   More on that below.

 

Now here’s a better look at Alberta.    First, the Canadian model:

 

And here is the US model:

 

In the case of Alberta, the two models aren’t as far apart.   It’s safe to expect significant rainfall this week in south central Alberta,  though it will be drier in the far south, and in the north.   Though the rain in parts of Alberta is significant, it likely won’t be enough for those municipalities and counties that have declared states of agricultural disaster.   Such declarations have been made by councils in Cypress County, the County of Grande Prairie, and the MDs of Bonnyville, Pincher Creek, and Greenview.

At Rural Roots Canada, we’ve heard from farmers in the Vegreville area, who are ready to give up.

Several weeks back, things were looking bleak north of Medicine Hat, and they haven’t improved since.   A farmer in that region contacted Rural Roots Canada after deciding his early seeded crops were all but doomed.

Yet in central Alberta and parts of Saskatchewan, crops are thriving due to abundant rainfall and lack of heat stress.   There are even some reports from those areas of crop damage due to saturated ground.

If it’s not one thing, it’s another.

 

Monday

Alberta

The day begins with a tightly wounded low pressure system along the Saskatchewan boundary just north of highway 14.  The storm will produce locally heavy rainfall and perhaps thunderstorms between Edmonton, and eastward into Saskatchewan.    That storm will continue to move north toward Cold Lake throughout the day.   Late afternoon showers are expected to develop in south central Alberta, expanding into southern Alberta during the evening and overnight.   Before the late day showers develop, temperatures should climb to the high 20s in southeastern Alberta, and the mid 20s almost everywhere else.   The rainy low pressure system discussed above will keep temperatures in the affected area to highs between 10 and 15 degrees.

Saskatchewan

A  low just across the boundary in central Alberta will extend a warm front through Saskatchewan from Lloydminster southeast to Oxbow.   Along the front, expect light rain or showers.  As the day goes on, cloud cover will increase in the west, and rain or even thunderstorms will develop in the evening in southwestern Saskatchewan.   Late in the evening, there could be significant rainfall in the Rosetown area, extending south to Grasslands National Park. A push of warm air from the south will bring temperatures into the high 20s in most of the province Monday.   :Local rainfall will cause some cooling.

Manitoba

Isolated showers can be expected in southern Manitoba off and on during the day.   Because these showers are not part of an organized weather system, they’ll pop up randomly, and could develop anywhere south of the interlake.  The showers should be brief, and accumulations light.    It will be warm across the province, with highs in the 27 to 29 degree range.

 

Tuesday

Alberta

A new low pressure system begins to form in northern Montana, heading rapidly into southern Saskatchewan.   Southeastern Alberta can expect to get some rain out of that system, especially in the morning.   Cypress Hills will get the most rain,  though it will briefly extend as far north as Medicine Hat.   Rain will also fall along the US border from Coutts eastward into Saskatchewan.   Most of the rest of Alberta will be dry during the morning and midday, with instability causing some afternoon and evening showers across southern and central regions.   Across the province, temperatures will hold steady in the mid 20s.

Saskatchewan

A low pressure system rushing in from Montana will spread some heavy rain and storms into southern Saskatchewan, starting in the morning in the far southwestern corner of the province, moving northeast to reach Regina and Saskatoon during the day.   Rain from these storms will be heavy, and the storms themselves will be strong.   Severe weather, with hail, is a possibility, and watches and warnings will likely be issued by Environment Canada during the day.

Rainfall will be significant, particularly around Saskatoon, where the storm system is expected to stall out, and remain into Wednesday.   North of North Battleford, it should remain dry, though cloudy, during the day.   This storm is the reason for such high precipitation numbers in the map at the top of this post.  In the rain storm, highs will be limited to 10 to 15 degrees.   To the north, away from the rain, highs should reach the low to mid 20s.

Manitoba

It will be a warm and humid day in Manitoba.  Showers are possible in southern regions through the day, but rain becomes more likely later on.    A Low in Saskatchewan will spread some rain into southwestern Manitoba in the late afternoon.  At the same time, hot, humid conditions could cause strong storms to develop in the Whiteshell, and other parts of southeastern Manitoba.   Highs across southern Manitoba should reach the high 20s, with some areas getting a chance at 30 degrees.

 

Wednesday

Alberta

The now-familiar weather pattern continues.   Unstable conditions mean dry mornings, with showers or rain developing in the afternoon.    By late in the day,  showers will form across the province, except for the far north and the far south.  And into the late afternoon and evening, thunderstorms are possible between Red Deer and Edmonton, and din the Lloydminster area.   This is all because of a Low pressure system that will develop near Champion.   The rain will mainly fall to the north of the Low.    Where it rains, highs will range from 15 to 20 degrees.   In drier areas, expect highs in the low to mid 20s.

Saskatchewan

The day begins with strong storms continuing from the night before in the Saskatoon area.   A Low pressure system  stalled out over the region overnight, and will begin to move slowly to the northeast in the morning.  Heavy rain is expected through the morning in the Saskatoon area,  slowly tapering off in the afternoon as the Low moves into western Manitoba.    As the map below shows, the system that stalls over Saskatoon could give more than 100 mm of rain to the city:

As we get closer to Wednesday, the trajectory of this storm may change.   It would be wise to keep tabs with current weather forecasts to best determine how to prepare for what could be a bit of a deluge.  In most of central Saskatchewan, the rain will limit temperatures to the 10 to 15 degree range.   Outside of the rainy region, expect highs in the low to mid 20s.

Manitoba

Referring to the map above, showing rainfall expected from early Tuesday evening to early Wednesday evening,  southern Manitoba can expect a rainy Wednesday,  with highs in the low to mid 20s.   The rain accompanies a Low pressure system which arrives in western Manitoba, after stalling out over Saskatoon Tuesday night and Wednesday morning.   The Low will destabilize the atmosphere, and strong thunderstorms are possible in southern and eastern Manitoba.  There will be pockets of heavy rain, where totals could reach 20 to 25 mm.    This rain is badly needed, but for some of those affected by this year’s southern Manitoba drought, it may be too late.

Thursday

Alberta

Showers or periods of rain will persist across Alberta Thursday, except for the far north.   There will be some breaks in the rain from time to time, especially in southern Alberta during the midday.   The rain will be constant, though, between Athabasca and Peace River,  and will then return to southern regions in the late afternoon and evening.   Thunderstorms can be expected overnight and into Friday morning in the Calgary area west toward Canmore, and in east central Alberta from Slave Lake southeast to Lloydminster.  Funnel clouds are possible in east central Alberta, because of instability and weak wind aloft.  Because of the widespread wet weather, it will be much cooler than average, with highs across most of Alberta in the mid teens.

Saskatchewan

Cloud will continue to build across the grain belt of southern Saskatchewan during the day, with rain moving in from the southwest.   Within this area of rain, there may be thundershowers, some of which may be strong to severe. By midday,  expect rain across southern Saskatchewan, expanding northwest by late afternoon.   Funnel clouds are possible between Meadow Lake and Kindersley.   The weather pattern has changed, and the dry weather anticipated for southern agricultural regions Thursday is no longer expected.  It will be cool, with highs across most of Saskatchewan reaching the 15-20 degree range.

Manitoba

A low pressure system moving from northeastern Manitoba to northwestern Ontario will provide rain to the northern half of the province on Thursday.  Southwestern Manitoba will see thunderstorms developing later in the day, some of which could turn severe, especially near the US border. Main risks include strong winds, heavy rainfall, and possible localized flooding.  These storms in southern Manitoba will be fueled by heat.   Most parts of the agricultural south can expect temperatures to reach the high 20s.   Humidity will be high, and it could be exceptionally muggy in the Red River Valley, where some areas may reach 30 degrees or higher.

 

Friday

Alberta

South of Edmonton, Friday will be a rainy day across the southern half of the province, as a Low pressure system slides southward in Eastern Alberta, parallel to the Saskatchewan boundary.   Another storm system develops along the foothills.  The rain will be widespread,  with amounts in localized areas reaching 50-75 mm.   The heavier amounts of rain will occur in strong thunderstorms, and if the rain comes down hard enough, localized, brief, flooding is possible.   Because of the wet weather, it will be cool, with temperatures in much of southern Alberta remaining below 15 degrees.    In the foothills it will be even colder, with highs between 5 and 10.    In northern Alberta,  away from the rain, highs will reach the low to mid 20s.

Saskatchewan

It’s a cooler than average day in Saskatchewan, with highs between 15 and 20 degrees.   It will be a day of showers and storms across southern Saskatchewan, fuelled by a low pressure system just across the boundary in Alberta.    Rain will intensify during the day, with thunderstorms expected to last well into the evening, especially in a west-east band just north of Saskatoon.   The northern third  of Saskatchewan will remain dry.

Manitoba

Because of an abrupt change in the weather pattern, the outlook for southern Manitoba has flipped from warm and dry to hot and wet.  It will rain all day long in the interlake and southern Manitoba.  But there’s more….   A developing low pressure system will draw in hot, moist air, leading to a high humidex and oppressive heat in southeastern Manitoba.  Severe thunderstorms are expected, particularly in the southeast and along the US border.  These storms could produce strong winds, torrential rain, hail, and localized flooding.

 

Saturday

Alberta

As a low pressure system reponsible for the recent rain moves to Manitoba,  the rain in Alberta begins to taper off Saturday.   Only the eastern side of the province can expect all-day rain.   It will be a dry day elsewhere.  However, evapotranspiration and  instability in the afternoon could lead to showers and storms developing over the foothills.  Severe weather is not expected.  There will be a north wind, and the air mass is cool, so most areas will see highs only near 20 degrees at best.

Saskatchewan

It will be another rainy day in the southern half of Saskatchewan, as the Low pressure system that has produced several days of wet weather intensifies as it moves into Manitoba.   Plenty of rain will be hanging back across Saskatchewan,  and isolated thunderstorms can’t be ruled out.   Only the northern third of the province will remain dry.   In some areas, particularly near the Manitoba boundary, the heavier rain will limit high temperatures to the 10-15 degree range, but most of the rest of the province has a good chance to reach 20 degrees.

Manitoba

Manitoba is home to the big weather show of the weekend, as a Low pressure system strengthens in the north, spreading rain back west to Saskatchewan,  and along Manitoba’s western boundary.   Southern Manitoba will experience showers, especially in the afternoon.   A flooding risk remains in areas that received heavy rain Friday. There will be a significant temperature change as the oppressive heat of Friday gives way to much cooler weather Saturday, with highs near 20.

Sunday

Alberta

Sunday will be a dry and sunny day across southern Alberta, with building cloud and afternoon showers returning in central regions.  As always at this time of year, thunderstorms can’t be ruled out, but severe weather is not expected.  The return of dry, stable conditions in the south will bring about a significant warmup.    Temperatures south of the Trans Canada Highway could reach the 25 to 30 degree range.   Elsewhere in Alberta, highs should reach the mid 20s.

Saskatchewan

The agricultural south will remain quiet and dry Sunday.  In central regions, a north south band of showers may develop during the day along a warm front emanating from a Low in the Northwest Territories.  Warm frontal precipitation is characteristically light,  however, storms may be possible, given enough instability.   In southern Saskatchewan, this will only affect areas east of Regina, and late in the day.   Across the province, expect highs from 20-25.

Manitoba

Warm weather is back, especially south of the Assiniboine River, where highs of 25-30 are possible.   It will be only slightly cooler elsewhere in southern Manitoba.   Most of the south will have a sunny, dry day.   However, from the interlake all the way north, and in the Whiteshell, expect rainy weather.   This is due to a strong, but departing Low pressure system just south of York Factory.    We’ll begin to see the backside of this very wet weather system early next week.   It leaves behind saturated ground across much of Manitoba.

 

 

COMPARE:  Prairie Weather This Week – July 28