Prairie Weather (Rural Roots Canada) – As meteorological summer (June-July-August) winds down, in some areas, it’s already starting to feel like fall. Nights are cooler, the days are getting shorter, and snow has shown up in the higher elevations of the Rockies.

Yet, severe storms continue to persist, and there may be more for parts of the prairies this week. The second half of August is when the severe thunderstorm threat is expected to diminish, but this year, we’ve seen some strong late-season storms, some of which have produced large hail, causing large damage. The storms have also interrupted harvest operations across all three Prairie Provinces without the benefit of any widespread increase in soil moisture levels.

And it’s not over yet.

Check out this map and focus on the big blue blob over British Columbia:

That blue blob is an upper level short wave trough….an area of intense low pressure, which will bring more rain and storms to Western Canada this week.  The map is valid early Tuesday morning, when the system is over British Columbia.

The Low will move across Alberta Wednesday, where it will be cool, with fairly widespread rainfall.   And….yes….SNOW. In the Rockies.

Snow won’t reach any of the agricultural land, but there will be rain, possible hail, and severe storms, as the system crosses the prairies.   The map below shows its location on Thursday:

The rain and storms will move through so fast, they won’t have an opportunity to generate substantial rain accumulation.   Not a whole lot of good will come from this system. Hail, insignificant rainfall, interruption to the harvest. Southern Alberta and southern Saskatchewan are expected to remain drier than average, and the shortfall in moisture will continue the deterioration of some crops, and pastureland.

RELATED: Hail Report: Crop Damage Claims Climb in Wake of Summer Storms

The week is expected to look like this:

Monday:

Monday will be a dry day across the prairies with considerable sunshine and warm weather.   All this is ahead of the arrival of the upper low from the west, which will drop a lot of rain and high elevation snow across British Columbia, before reaching Alberta on Tuesday.  Temperatures across the prairies will reach the low to mid 20s, with slightly warmer weather in southern Alberta and Saskatchewan between Alberta’s highway 2 and Caronport, Saskatchewan.

Tuesday:

As the upper low moves into Alberta, expect rain, heavy rain, and thunderstorms through the Rockies and foothills.  Anywhere west of highway 2 will have a good chance of afternoon rain and storms, with up to 15 mm accumulation.   East of Alberta’s highway 2 all the way east to Manitoba’s Red River Valley it will remain dry, except for a chance of a few showers in eastern Alberta and in the area from Winnipeg to Emerson.   In the rainy areas of Alberta, it will be cool, with highs only reaching 10-15 degrees.   But, where it’s dry east of highway 2 and into Manitoba, highs should reach the mid 20s.

Wednesday:

The Low marches eastward, and at the surface another Low develops    When you have an upper low on top of a surface low, it’s known as vertically stacked.   These tend to provide heavy rain, and strong wind, and this one will.   However, as earlier noted, the system will move so fast that there won’t be a good chance of replenishing moisture in the dry soil.   Midday Wednesday, expect rain and storms in Alberta east of highway two, and through central Saskatchewan, especially between the Montana border and Prince Albert.  Later in the day, the fast moving system will have spread its rain to southwestern Manitoba, with heavier rain expected between the southern tip of Lake Manitoba to the border with North Dakota.  Snow will fall in the early morning in the Rocky Mountains, but will melt by day’s end, as temperatures climb.   Elsewhere, it will be cool, with highs remaining below 20 in Alberta and Saskatchewan.   With the afternoon rain it will be chilly in western Manitoba as well, but in and east of the Red River Valley, temperatures should make it to the mid 20s.

Thursday:

Alberta dries out, with rain continuing in Saskatchewan and Manitoba as the vertically stacked low moves northeast toward Hudson Bay.   A ridge of high pressure will build in behind the departing low, and that will bring back sunny and warm conditions to the prairies.   It’s not possible to forecast with certainty, but signals point to another period of prolonged warm and dry weather beginning late this week.    The warming begins in Alberta, where afternoon highs in the mid to high 20s will return to the south.   Across most of Saskatchewan and Manitoba, highs will reach 15-20 degrees.

Friday:

With the week’s main weather event now over, sunny, dry conditions extend across all three Prairie Provinces.   No significant weather is expected Friday.  Highs reaching 30 degrees are possible across southern Alberta, 25-30 degrees across Saskatchewan, and 20-25 degrees across Manitoba.

Saturday and Sunday:

It will be a dry long weekend across all three Prairie Provinces, and the sun will shine in most areas.   Temperatures both days will likely reach 30 across much of southern Alberta and Saskatchewan, and the high 20s across southern Manitoba.    After the earlier rain and storms, the weather will become ideal once again for harvesting.   As long as the air conditioner in your swather or combine is working!

Prairie Weather Event Forecast

Lakeland Rodeo Association Finals   Aug 29 to Sep 1,   St. Paul, Alberta

August 29,  Sunny, breezy, high 19

August 30,  A few clouds, high 20

August 31, Mainly sunny, high 23

September 1,  A few afternoon clouds, high 25

COMPARE TO LAST WEEK’S Prairie Weather Report: Prairie Weather this Week: August 19