Prairie Weather (Rural Roots Canada) – The harvest, already behind schedule, will remain slow, or even stall – Rain!
Across the prairies, harvest operations have been slowed by the weather, and this week offers little relief. The map below indicates heavy rain for much of the prairies, especially Saskatchewan, up until Sunday evening. It should be noted that most of this rain falls early in the week, with some drier days later on. Whether the fields will become dry enough for combining ahead of the next round of wet weather next weekend remains to be seen.
This is an active pattern, and it’s not a short-lived one. A persistent trough sits off the B.C. coast through the next two weeks, feeding a fast southwest flow over the Prairies that steers one storm system after another through the region. Expect several rounds of rain between now and September 6, with some corridors picking up 50 to 100 mm total. Temperatures will swing with each system: mild ahead of a low, cooler behind it, more like an autumn pattern than the stagnant heat of midsummer. Southern Alberta into far southwestern Saskatchewan sits in a bit of a rain shadow through this stretch and should stay somewhat drier than areas farther east. A thunderstorm or heavier shower cannot be ruled out, either.
Monday
Peace Region
Cool air follows the weekend’s departing low, and while unlikely, frost is possible early Monday morning. Check low-lying fields before you send anyone out, especially where canola is still filling, or later-seeded cereals haven’t fully matured. Expect a high near 20, with cloud lingering through the day.
Alberta
An upper low that moved into southern Alberta brings a continued risk of showers and thunderstorms overnight into early Monday. Behind the system, expect a cooler, clearing day with frost risk along the foothills Monday morning. Highs should reach the low 20s across the province. If you’re desiccating or spraying, wait for the wind and moisture to settle. With the northwest region’s crop condition already trailing average at 35 percent good-to-excellent, additional cool, wet weather won’t help crops that need heat to finish.
The animated map below shows the expected rainfall pattern in Saskatchewan and Manitoba from midnight Monday morning to midnight Tuesday morning:
Saskatchewan
Southern Saskatchewan is on the back end of a significant rain event Monday morning. Periods of rain and windy conditions continue through the day even as the overnight severe convection clears out. This adds to totals that are already in the 20 to 60 mm range, with localized amounts up to 80 to 100 mm where thunderstorms tracked through overnight. Highs should reach only the mid-teens with the wet weather. Harvest had climbed to 11 percent complete as of the most recent report, still well back of the 25 percent five-year average, and this rain will cost you more days in the field.
Manitoba
Southwestern Manitoba picks up the tail end of an overnight linear storm system that brought strong winds and heavy rainfall after crossing in from Saskatchewan. Expect lingering rain into the morning before conditions gradually improve, with highs reaching the high teens and low 20s across southern Manitoba’s farmland. With winter wheat and fall rye harvest sitting near two-thirds complete and spring cereals just seven per cent off the field, standing crop that gets heavy rain and wind together is at higher risk of lodging. Walk your fields once it clears to check for down crop before you plan your next pass.
Tuesday
Peace Region
A brief break between systems. A strong low-pressure system strengthens off the north coast – a very winter-like pattern. It doesn’t influence the Peace just yet. So, a sunny sky and a high in the 21 to 25 degree range give you a workable window before active weather returns later in the week.
Alberta
Ridging builds in behind Monday’s departing low, bringing a sunny, mostly dry day. Highs should reach 24 to 25 all across the province from east to west and north to south. This is a solid rebound from Monday’s cooler readings. Use this window for fieldwork, since the next system is already lining up behind it.
Saskatchewan
Drier and warmer as the low pulls east into Manitoba and high pressure briefly takes over. Highs climb to the 21 to-24-degree range across the province. After all the wet weather over the past couple of days, it’s unlikely fields have firmed up. But if you’re lucky, and you can get onto the fields, don’t hesitate. It won’t stay dry for long.
Manitoba
Early in the morning, the departing low-pressure system will be in the zone between Lake Winnipeg and the Ontario boundary. It will produce significant early morning rain to the Interlake and north-central Manitoba. The agricultural south will stay largely dry, though a few scattered showers in the morning are possible. As the day goes on, the low moves east, and behind it, the rain tapers off, and the sky clears. Highs will reach the low 20s all across Manitoba. This is a good day to catch up on anything delayed by the Sunday-Monday storm system, if possible.
Wednesday
Peace Region
The west coast low spawns a couple of connected baby lows – one in BC, another west of Edmonton. This causes cloud to build in the Peace Region, with a slight chance of showers on the BC side. Expect conditions to deteriorate through the day, with a high near 24 ahead of the change.
Alberta
The next system in this active train begins moving in, with low pressure developing west of Edmonton. A second, smaller low develops near Browning, Montana, providing showers to southwestern Alberta during the midday. The showers will intensify and cover the area south of Highway 3, from Crowsnest to Medicine Hat, by the afternoon. Thunderstorms are possible. Accumulations will be minor, likely less than 5 mm. Southern Alberta is the one region across the prairies where it has been dry enough for substantial harvest work. That work will be interrupted by Wednesday’s wetter weather. Highs will reach the low to mid-20s across the province.
Saskatchewan
A sunny, warm day ahead of the next system, with highs reaching the mid-to-high 20s. Showers move in overnight, especially in southwestern Saskatchewan, so make good use of the daylight hours. This lines up with a broader pattern of two to three more significant storm systems tracking through the region over the coming week, so don’t expect a long dry stretch before the next round arrives.
Manitoba
While significant rain is not expected, Wednesday will be a cloudy day across agricultural regions of Manitoba. The sun will likely break through late in the afternoon in the southwest. Highs across the province will reach the low 20s. Temperatures stay seasonal, but this is a day to get ahead of grain handling before wetter weather sets in again Thursday.
Thursday
Peace Region
Rain likely as the storm system tracks through, with accumulations of 8-to-15 mm. The Low in Alberta strengthens and is centred near Edmonton, with an occlusion back toward the Peace region, spreading rain. Cool air will be drawn into the area, so expect highs no greater than 17.
Alberta
Widespread showers and thunderstorm activity is expected as a low-pressure system intensifies and crosses central Alberta. This is part of the broader pattern bringing repeated soaking rains to a wide swath of the Prairies this week. Central and Northern regions see a cooler, wetter day with a high near 20, while southern Alberta remains drier, but with a similar high near 20. Given how far behind normal harvest progress is running province-wide, and how much crop is still standing, this round of rain adds another delay for producers waiting on drier conditions to finish up.
Saskatchewan
Another soaking is likely in areas near Lloydminster and the Battlefords, with the heaviest totals coming in around 10 to 15 mm. Expect showers in southwestern Saskatchewan, with accumulations near 5 mm. East of Moose Jaw and Saskatoon, dry weather is likely to continue. Highs will reach the low 20s across the province, except for the Lloydminster/Battlefords region, where the rain will keep the temperature in the mid-teens. If you’ve got grain in the bin already, check it, since damp-harvested crop paired with more humid conditions raises the risk of spoilage without adequate aeration or drying.
Manitoba Rain returns to the western and southern parts of the province late in the day, as a weak system provides wet weather. As the system moves through, rain will intensify across southern Manitoba through the evening hours. Before that, it will be dry and mild with highs in southern Manitoba in the mid-20s. While rainfall amounts should be light, there is the potential for locally heavy totals under any thunderstorms embedded in the system.
Friday
Peace Region
Showers or light rain will continue through the day, with a cool high in the 12 to 14-degree range. Expect 15 mm of rain throughout the Peace Region in both Alberta and BC, with a cool high near 17, though there are signs the pattern eases briefly by the weekend. More significantly, it could become quite cold Friday night, with lows dropping to about 4 degrees. If the sky clears, though, it could get colder, and frost may be a concern. Check back here at Rural Roots Canada on Thursday for an update.
Alberta
Unsettled conditions persist, with the trough remaining anchored to the west, keeping the door open for further shower and thunderstorm activity, particularly in central and northern zones. North of Edmonton, highs will be in the teens. To the south, expect afternoon temperatures in the 20 to 23 degree range. Central and southern Alberta will stay dry.
Saskatchewan
Scattered shower activity continues as systems keep riding through on the fast southwest flow. Despite the showers, it will be warm, as mild air pushes in from the United States. Highs will reach the high 20s south of the Trans Canada Highway, perhaps even reaching 30 degrees along the US border. In central Saskatchewan, expect highs in the low to mid-20s and in the north, it will be much colder, with highs as low as 10 to 15 degrees. Confidence is lower this far out, but expect another day when fieldwork is hit-or-miss depending on your location.
Manitoba
Hit-and-miss showers are possible through the day across agricultural regions of Manitoba, with drier breaks possible between waves of the pattern. Despite the possibility of wet weather, it will be warm, with highs across southern Manitoba reaching the high 20s. The Emerson area could get to 30 degrees. The showers are not expected to produce significant rain accumulations.
Saturday and Sunday
Peace Region
Saturday brings a likely short break in the active pattern, with a high near 22 and a better chance of sunshine. Sunday’s outlook carries lower confidence this far out, but expect temperatures to hold in a similar range or ease slightly as the next system, expected to approach around September 8 to 10, begins organizing to the west.
Alberta
Unsettled weather continues Saturday, with a break on the way for Sunday. Rain is more likely to linger through Sunday in northern regions. Highs both days across Alberta will range from the high teens to the low 20s. Use any dry stretch you get this weekend to catch up, because the active pattern isn’t done for the following week.
Saskatchewan
A quieter weekend is likely, with hot weather in southern Saskatchewan on Saturday and cooler on Sunday. Temperatures will climb to the high 20s Saturday afternoon south of the Trans Canada Highway. Mid-twenties are expected mid- province. And temperatures will stay in the teens north of the Yellowhead Highway. Sunday will be cooler, with most areas expecting highs in the high teens. The cooler weather on Sunday is due to rain returning to southwest Saskatchewan. The map below shows estimated totals for Sunday:
Keep an eye on updated short-range forecasts as the weekend approaches, since another system is lining up for the following week.
Manitoba
Saturday should stay warm and mostly dry, with highs reaching the high teens or low 20s. Sunday’s specifics carry more uncertainty at this range. The broader pattern suggests temperatures holding in a similar range, with a chance conditions turn more unsettled again as the next system approaches from the west. Take advantage of any dry stretch for combining or grain drying.
EVENT FORECASTS:
Cochrane Lions Labour Day Rodeo, Sept 4-7, Cochrane, AB
September 4 – Morning cloud, afternoon clearing, high 19
September 5 – Cloudy, high 16
September 6 – Mainly cloudy with sunny breaks, high 21
September 7 – Morning rain, afternoon cloud, high 16
Patricia Rodeo, Sept 4-6, Patricia, AB
September 4 – Sunny, high 24
September 5 – Increasing cloud, high 25
September 6- Mostly cloudy, morning showers, high 24
Rossburn Rodeo and Harvest Festival, Sept 4-6, Rossburn, MB
September 4 – Mainly sunny, breezy, high 26
September 5 – Sunny, high 25
September 6 – Increasing cloud, high 21
Ashern Rodeo, Sept 4-6, Ashern, MB
September 4 – Sunny, high 28
September 5 – Morning cloud, then sunny, high 26
September 6 – Increasing clouds, high 21
LISTEN: RRC Podcast S2E26 – Dry South, Wet North as Harvest Picks up Steam
