Prairie Weather (Rural Roots Canada) – Christmas week travel; and Who Gets a White Christmas?
This is Christmas week, so travel is a big deal across the prairies, and in many areas, the weather won’t co-operate. A parade of clippers and Arctic highs will bring bitter cold, occasional blowing snow, and tricky highways.
For those hitting the road, the best travel day across the southern Prairies is Tuesday, December 23. By Christmas Eve (December 24), conditions will worsen, especially in Saskatchewan, where snow, ice, and low visibility will cause delays.
Travel Tips & Farm Notes
Holiday Travel:
- Overall, expect slippery sections and drifting snow on major highways Monday through Wednesday, particularly the Trans-Canada, Yellowhead, and Queen Elizabeth II corridors.
- Check 511 road cameras frequently, 511Alberta, Highway Hotline, and Manitoba511. Conditions can change quickly with gusty winds.
- Pack a winter travel safety kit. Include blankets, water, booster cables, snacks, and a charged phone.
For the Farm:
- Early week cold may stress livestock; provide windbreaks and ensure watering systems are freeze-protected.
- The midweek system may briefly impede feed deliveries, so plan storage accordingly.
Here is an estimate of snow expected up to and including Christmas Day:
Total snowfall will be minor along and south of the Trans Canada Highway. The greatest transportation challenges will be in south central Saskatchewan, from Lloydminster to Saskatoon, then east toward Flin Flon.
Monday
Alberta
A weak low developing over southern Alberta will bring increasing cloud and light snow through the day, particularly from Calgary north through Red Deer and into central regions. including Edmonton and areas to the north. 2–5 cm of snow is possible by evening, with localized heavier pockets along the foothills near Hinton and Swan Hills. There is a possibility of early morning freezing rain along Highway 3 near Lethbridge, expanding east toward Medicine Hat by midday. That’s also when some of the snow in central Alberta will track southeastward toward Saskatchewan Most of the province will stay cold, near –25 °C, with frigid wind chills in the morning easing through the day. South of highway 3, temperatures may rise to the -17 to -20 range. There is the potential for temperatures in Crowsnest Pass to rise to near zero.
Saskatchewan
Overnight wind chills ease, but it remains bitterly cold over much of the province. Light snow spreads into the west central area by midday as the Alberta system edges east. Visibility will drop at times along the Yellowhead and Highway 16 corridors. South of the Trans Canada Highway, there is some question on the precipitation type. Something will fall from the sky. It could be snow, or it could be freezing rain, as temperatures just a few hundred feet aloft will be above zero. At the surface, the ground will be frozen. Rain from the warm air mass may not freeze until it hits the ground, creating a dangerous layer of ice. Along the US border, midday temperatures may briefly reach 0 to +2. quickly dropping in the afternoon. Overall, south of Chamberlain, highs will be in the -10 to -20 range, and below -20 north of Chamberlain.
Manitoba
Cold high pressure holds firm. Expect a mostly sunny morning across southern and central regions, with clouds and snow moving into western and southern Manitoba during the afternoon. highs near –20 in southern Manitoba, colder in the north. Because of the incoming snow, travel conditions across southern Manitoba will deteriorate through the day.
Tuesday
Alberta
Arctic high pressure builds in across Alberta and the prairies, as cooler air pushes back in from the northwest. Snowfall is confined to northern Alberta. This will likely be an excellent day for highway travel in central and southern Alberta, though slick roads will linger on secondary routes. Warm westerlies will bring higher temperatures to the highway 3 corridor and to the south. Temperatures near zero can be expected there by midday with only slight cooling later in the afternoon. Between Highway 3 and Highway 1, temperatures will reach the mid minus teens, and stay below -20 north of the Trans Canada Highway.
Saskatchewan
Significant weather is not expected in Saskatchewan on Tuesday, and travel conditions should be good to excellent, though there may be some slippery sections. The sky will be mainly sunny through the day due to a high pressure system. However, it’s arctic high pressure, so it will be yet another very cold day, especially from Saskatoon north. By contrast, highs between -5 and -10 are likely west of Moose Jaw and south of the Trans Canada highway, due to a mild westerly flow coming in from Alberta.
Manitoba
Early morning snow over Lake Winnipeg and east of the Red River Valley will move rapidly into Ontario, and it will turn out to be a sunny day across Manitoba. This will be a good travel day, with no significant precipitation expected anywhere in the province after sunrise. However, it will be cold, with highs between -20 and -25.
Wednesday (Christmas Eve)
Alberta
Another clipper organizing over Montana skirts southern Alberta late in the day, bringing renewed snow to southern Alberta. The snow will intensify in the midday as far north as Red Deer, moving toward Edmonton in the afternoon. Travel on Alberta’s busiest highway, the QE II will be impacted by this Christmas Eve weather. If you have travel plans in central and southern Alberta for Wednesday, it may be a good idea to make alternate arrangements. Northern Alberta stays mainly clear but very cold, overnight lows near –30 °C.
Saskatchewan
The ridge of high pressure that cleared out the Saskatchewan sky Tuesday will retreat north, as a clipper system brings snow to central Saskatchewan. The map below shows where the snow will fall on December 24th, and how much is expected:
Travel will be impacted, especially in west central Saskatchewan during the afternoon. If you have travel plans in this area for December 24, you may want to consider travelling instead on the 23rd, when conditions will be near ideal. In terms of temperature, it will be an interesting day. North of the snow, it will be very cold, with temperatures in the mid minus 20s. Between the Trans Canada and Yellowhead highways, temperatures will peak n the mid minus teens. And, south of highway 1, afternoon temperatures could climb to the -4 to -9 range. What makes the day interesting, will be an influx of warm air late in the day, and in southern Saskatchewan, temperatures could actually rise a few degrees during the evening.
Manitoba
As the map above shows, west central Manitoba can expect some snow, but it’s not expected to arrive until the evening. Until then, the weather in Manitoba will be cold, but otherwise uneventful. There will be a mainly sunny sky until cloud begins to develop later in the day, ahead of the snow. Highs of -17 to -19 can be expected in the southern and interlake regions. North of the lakes, temperatures will remain below -20.
Thursday (Christmas Day)
Will it be a White Christmas? A White Christmas is defined as when there are at least 2 cm of snow on the ground Christmas day, or snow falling from the sky. A Perfect Christmas is when there is at least 2 cm of snow on the ground AND snow falling fro0m the sky. In parts of southern Alberta and southern Saskatchewan, this may not be a White Christmas. Snow is not expected on Christmas Day in those regions, and there won’t be much, if any, on the ground. The chart below, again from Pivotal Weather, shows expected snow depth on Christmas Day.
Alberta
A crisp but tranquil Christmas morning awaits much of Alberta. Sunshine mixes with alpine cloud bands, highs near -15 in the south, but temperatures could remain in the -20s north and east of Calgary. High pressure builds, and snow in central Alberta moves into Saskatchewan, likely before sunrise. Roads improve steadily, though icy patches persist on mountain and parkland routes.
Saskatchewan
While southern Saskatchewan will have another dry day, snow will roll through the central part of the province, during the morning and midday. In the afternoon, high pressure builds in, quickly clearing the sky as the snow heads northeast toward northern Manitoba. The snow will fall north of the Yellowhead highway with amounts ranging from 5 to 13 cm. South of the Trans Canada Highway, high temperatures will range from -12 to -19. To the north, temperatures will remain in the -20s throughout the day.
Manitoba
Freezing rain is possible in Western Manitoba early Christmas morning, as snow travels across the northern Interlake during the day. Most of southern Manitoba will stay dry, though it will be cloudy, and Santa will have to use instrument flying rules. It will be cold, but not exceptionally cold. The average high for Winnipeg on Christmas Day is -12, and that’s likely where temperatures will end up….within the range of the long term average across the southern half of Manitoba. Which is to say -10 to -17. North of Thompson, highs will range from -23 to -31.
Friday (Boxing Day)
Travel conditions could be challenging in southern Alberta and Saskatchewan on Friday. A clipper system will race across northern Montana, spreading snow into southern Alberta during the morning, and into Saskatchewan for the afternoon. As the map below shows, the storm will intensify in Saskatchewan:
The map below shows snow totals expected on Boxing Day:
As mentioned, the storm will hit Saskatchewan hard, along with Alberta’s Lakeland, between Vegreville and Lloydminster. Parts of Western Manitoba could also see up to 20 cm of snow on Boxing Day, though more is expected on the 27th. Travel in these areas on Boxing Day should be carried out with extreme caution. In Manitoba, it will be quite cold with late afternoon temperatures ranging from -18 t0 -25. In southern Saskatchewan and southern Alberta, temperatures will peak near -10 south of the Trans Canada Highway, and will remain in the minues teens in south central regions, and the -20s to the north.
Saturday and Sunday
On Saturday, a band of significant snow will sweep quickly across Saskatchewan and Manitoba. Once it’s through, clearing is expected, leading to dry weather across the southern and central prairies for the rest of the weekend. Saturday is still cold, with highs near -20, except for southwestern Alberta. Warm downslope westerlies will bring warmth to southern Alberta on Saturday. On Sunday, that warm air stretches into Saskatchewan, and in the southern parts of both provinces, temperatures may climb way above the melting point. At least that’s the potential….this far out, there remains plenty of uncertainty. Northern Saskatchewan, Northern Alberta, and all of Manitoba will remain cold, with highs in the minus teens and 20s.
