Prairie Weather (Rural Roots Canada) – La Nina update, Drought Monitor, Chinooks, Blizzards.
It has been a cold, snowy December across most of the prairies, and for the most part, it was expected. La Nina conditions have established, bringing cold weather and plenty of precipitation to Western Canada. BC has been hit by huge rainfalls, and the prairies are getting some very welcome snowfall, and some less-than-welcome Arctic air. La Nina is finally performing as expected. and it’s likely here for the rest of the winter. The latest La Nina advisory from the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration expects a shift away from La Nina conditions toward the end of the January-March three month period.
If all goes as expected, we will transition out of La Nina into neutral conditions (neither La Nina nor El Nino) in the spring. For Western Canada, that means a return to more “normal” conditions. but with the potential for a lingering cooling and wet influence from the preceding weak La Nina in early spring.
And this week, La Nina will produce snow, and plenty of it across Western Canada. In agricultural regions, the heaviest snowfall is expected along the Trans Canada Highway, though amounts elsewhere in Saskatchewan and Manitoba will be significant. The next two maps show snowfall expected up until Sunday night at midnight.
Considerable snow will fall in Alberta, except for areas south of highway 3, where snowfall will be minimal to non-existent.
The map above shows 40 to 45 cm for the Peace Region, which would be very welcome in light of the exceptional drought in the area. An update to the Canadian Drought Monitor has been released, and the Peace has the worst drought in the country, so the snow outlook for this week is encouraging:
Over the past month, changes to drought conditions have been minor across the prairies. Extreme and severe drought no longer applies to the Lloydminster region, but extreme drought remains between Calgary and Edmonton. Drought conditions slightly worsened in southwestern and central Saskatchewan. In Manitoba, precipitation in November was below average, but drought conditions didn’t change significantly, due to the wet conditions left behind by earlier rainfall.
Click here for the full drought monitor update.
A strong Arctic air mass remains bottled up over the Canadian Arctic, but the focus shifts to the Pacific. A strong low pressure system moving into the Gulf of Alaska is forcing energy inland, priming the jet stream to spin up a series of Alberta Clippers this week. This track will repeatedly bring a mix of milder Pacific air crashing against the cold Arctic dome, resulting in two distinct, impactful snowfall events for the central and eastern Prairies.
Monday
Alberta
Warm and windy weather is expected in southern Alberta. Cold and snowy conditions are anticipated for the north. A low pressure system develops in northern Alberta. That will provide snow for northern regions, and because the low will draw up some mild air from the south, there is a chance of a mix of rain and snow near Lesser Slave Lake during the late morning, changing to freezing rain in the early afternoon. The dividing line between the cold northern air mass, and the warmth to the south will be just north of Highway 16. The map below shows temperatures expected at 5:00 pm Monday:
Saskatchewan and Manitoba
Some of the warmer chinook air will move into southern Saskatchewan, and temperatures will rise above the melting point. The clipper system forming in Alberta will begin to track eastward across central and northern Saskatchewan, producing some light snow in the north. There is a risk of blowing snow as the clipper gets closer late in the day. In Manitoba, there will be lingering cold air from the weekend, but it will moderate somewhat. In the northern and central regions of Manitoba, expect light snow as an Arctic front passes through the area. The map below shows expected early evening temperatures for Monday:
Tuesday
Alberta
The clipper system that brought snow to northern Alberta Monday moves rapidly into Saskatchewan and Manitoba. Colder air begins to settle back in behind the system. Expect a mix of sun and cloud for the south and central regions. South of the Trans Canada Highway, it will be another day of above zero temperatures. Between Highways 1 and 16, expect highs near -5. Further north, highs will range from -15 to -25, as Arctic high pressure brings down temperatures. It will be what’s known as a “dirty” high, which means small impulses will be allowed in to spread light snow across most of northern Alberta.
Saskatchewan
The first potent Clipper begins to track east across central regions (north of the main agriculture belt). A swath of 10 to 20 cm of snow is possible for areas north of the Yellowhead Highway. The Clipper will draw warm air up from the south, and the Saskatoon area could see a mix of rain and snow. Rain is even possible southwest of Saskatoon in the early morning, rapidly moving east into Manitoba by the afternoon. Warmer air temporarily pushes highs near 0 in the south, but cold air will be drawn back in after the Clipper passes. In the afternoon, temperatures across Saskatchewan will again fall below zero. North of the Yellowhead highway, temperatures will fall to negative double digit values.
Manitoba
The Alberta clipper rolls through southern Manitoba during the day, bringing snow to the region. Rare December rain can’t be ruled out south of the lakes, as morning temperatures will climb above zero. As the day goes on, and the clipper moves into Ontario, afternoon temperatures in southern Manitoba will quickly plunge back down to near -15, as the sky clears toward evening. As an example, Brandon’s early morning temperature will be around +4. By evening, it will have cooled off to -12ish. North of the lakes, expect temperatures in the -20s and -30s.
Wednesday
Alberta
Yet another Alberta clipper forms, somewhere in southwestern Alberta. And that will again bring warm weather to the southern part of the province, with snow in central and northern regions. South of the Trans Canada highway, expect little to no precipitation, and if anything happens, it could be in the form of brief, light rain. A narrow band of heavier snow could from along Highway 1 from Calgary east to Saskatoon. The potential is there for about 20 cm of snow. Travelers will want to check road conditions and weather warnings before heading east of Calgary on Wednesday. The band of heavier snow will be very narrow, but lighter snow will fall through day to the northwest through Edmonton and as far as Peace River.
Saskatchewan
It will be a snowy day in Saskatchewan, particularly south of Saskatoon. In the north, arctic high pressure will keep the sky clear and the weather cold. To the south, a clipper in Alberta will spread snow into southern Saskatchewan with around 30 cm possible along the Trans Canada Highway corridor. The snow will continue through the day and into the evening, disrupting travel. There is the potential for strong wind causing blowing and drifting snow. While not as likely, the chance of blizzard conditions is not zero. Motorists should check weather warnings and road conditions before heading out. Better yet, it might be wise just to postpone travel in southern Saskatchewan on Wednesday.
Manitoba
As another clipper approaches, cloud cover increases rapidly early in the day, with potentially intense snowfall beginning across southern Manitoba through most of the day. South of the lakes, expect 20 to 30 cm of snow, with a strong northerly wind creating adverse travel conditions. Temperatures across most of the south will remain near -10 or below, and wind chill will be significant. Travel in southern Manitoba Wednesday should be postponed, but for those who have no choice but to travel, you will want to check weather warnings and road conditions before leaving. The weather in northern Manitoba will be less eventful as Arctic high pressure keeps the storms to the south. It will be cold, though, with highs across most of northern Manitoba near -30.
Thursday
Alberta
A brief break in the active pattern today before another Alberta Clipper develops late in the day over the south. Central and northern areas, including Edmonton, Slave Lake, and Peace River, will see light to moderate snow developing overnight, with localized heavier amounts near Peace River (up to 15–20 cm by Friday morning). Winds strengthen later in the day, gusting to 70 km/h in open areas, reducing visibility in blowing snow.
Farther south, from Calgary eastward, a warm front lifting north could bring a short window of freezing rain late this evening before sharply colder air returns overnight. Untillthen, from Calgary south, temperatures creep above the melting point, where as north of Edmonton, highs will remain in the minus teens and minus 20s.
Saskatchewan
Southern Saskatchewan recovers from blizzard conditions earlier in the week. Winds ease through the day, improving visibility, though drifting snow remains an issue in open areas. Central and northern regions sit under high pressure. There, it will be clear but cold, with morning wind chills between –40 and –45. Most of Saskatchewan will stay cold through the day, with highs in the mid minus 20s. West of Regina, it will be slightly warmer, with highs ranging from -8 to -16.
Clouds will increase overnight ahead of the next Alberta Clipper.
Manitoba
COLD! Lingering snow from the previous day will continue in the early morning across southern Manitoba. By midday, the snow moves east, and arctic high pressure takes over. That will clear out the sky, but it will also draw bitterly cold air into the province. Highs across Manitoba from north to south will range from -23 to -30. And with a brisk northerly wind, wind chills will be in the -40s, creating a high risk of stress to livestock. The map below shows expected wind chill in the early evening:
That same wind may also kick snow up off the ground, reducing visibility on the roads. Though snow will no longer be falling from the sky by the afternoon, near blizzard conditions are possible due solely to the wind, the snow, and the blowing snow.
Friday
Alberta
The developing Clipper tracks east across southern Alberta. It will move rapidly eastward. Central and northern Alberta see widespread snow continuing from the previous night, tapering late in the day. Fresh snow, paired with gusty northwest wind (up to 70 km/h), will create localized whiteout conditions through mid-morning.
Southern Alberta sees early morning freezing drizzle or wet snow east of Calgary before temperatures plunge behind the cold front. The southwest foothills could still see wind gusts approaching 100 km/h in the early morning. Snowfall and weather conditions won’t be as bad as they were Wednesday in central and southern Alberta, especially after the wind dies down in the mid-morning. Snow accumulations will be minor, except for northwestern Alberta, where up to 10 cm could fall in the Fort McMurray area. A cold front will dive from north to south after the clipper passes, which means by the afternoon, temperatures will be in the -20s across Alberta north of the Trans Canada Highway. To the south, temperatures will fall to the -10 to -15 degree range.
Saskatchewan
The Alberta Clipper sweeps into the province Friday morning, bringing a broad area of snow – heaviest from Saskatoon through Yorkton and into the northern grainbelt. Expected totals: 10–15 cm, possibly up to 20 cm in the east-central belt. Winds shift southeast to northwest as the system passes, gusting 60 to 70 km/h, producing blowing snow and localized travel disruptions along the Trans-Canada Highway corridor.
Temperatures fall sharply by evening, dropping from the minus teens to the minus 20s, marking the start of a cold weekend
Manitoba
Snow moves in Friday afternoon and continues into Saturday morning. The heaviest band looks to stretch from Dauphin through Brandon toward Portage la Prairie, with around 15 to 20 cm possible. Ahead of the low, southerly winds and milder air may bring brief mixed precipitation, including a risk of freezing rain southwest of Melita. Blowing snow becomes an issue overnight as colder air rushes in from the northwest.
Saturday
Alberta
Behind the departing low, skies begin clearing under building Arctic high pressure. A few flurries persist in the north and east, snow falls in the mountains, and there may be some scattered flurries from Calgary to Saskatchewan, but conditions improve west to east through the day. Temperatures remain well below seasonal averages — daytime highs near –15°C in the south and –20°C or lower central and north. From Red Deer east along and near Highway 12, temperatures may even stay below -30.
Saskatchewan
A secondary weak low clips central regions, bringing another 2–5 cm of snow from Prince Albert east toward Melfort. Elsewhere, clearing develops with northwest winds slowly diminishing and shifting to the west. It will be a very cold day, with temperatures ranging from -23 to -27. Then overnight, The cold settles in firmly overnight, with lows in the –25 to –33°C range and wind chills near –40.
Manitoba
Snow continues in the Interlake and southeastern Manitoba through the morning before tapering off to flurries by afternoon. Additional accumulations of 2–4 cm are possible. Arctic high pressure builds in later in the day, ushering in a sharp temperature drop. Expect daytime highs in the –18 to –22°C range, with lows from -25 to -27 overnight. The sky will clear through the day, setting the stage for a frigid Sunday.
Sunday
Alberta
Light snow is expected in northern Alberta, but in central and southern regions, it will be a sunny day. Expect morning lows between –25 and –30°C, except for southwestern Alberta. West of Fort Macleod, warm westerlies will hold overnight temperatures to near -5. In that very small corner of the province, temperatures will hold steady near -5 through the rest of the day. It will be cold, though, in the rest of the province with highs between -22 and -27. Confidence in this forecast is only moderate. If a lee trough develops, the warmer weather could spread further east and north. However, don’t count on it.
Saskatchewan
Most regions will be dominated by a clear sky and calm wind. This is due to Arctic high pressure, bringing Arctic temperatures. Expect morning lows between –28 and –33°C, with extreme wind chills of –40 in open areas. In the afternoon, temperatures won’t change much, with afternoon highs between -25 and -30, with wind chills remaining near -40. There is a potential for some slightly milder air in southwestern Saskatchewan, with highs between -12 and -15 in an near Swift Current. Only isolated flurries possible in the northwest. Elsewhere, no significant precipitation is expected.
Manitoba
It could be potentially the coldest morning so far this season, with wind chills possibly reaching –45 across the north and between -30 and -35 in the central and eastern regions. It will be sunny, due to the Arctic high pressure that brings in all the cold air. No significant precipitation is expected in Manitoba, which will have a stable but bitterly cold end to the weekend.
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