Prairie Weather (Rural Roots Canada) – Prairie Snow this Week – And the outlook for the REST OF THE WINTER.
Following a mild and dry November, it has been a cool, snowy start to winter for most of Western Canada. Southern Alberta and southwestern Saskatchewan haven’t had much snow accumulation, but have shared in at least some of the cold weather that dominated the prairies in December. Things are beginning to change as a series of low pressure systems moves from west to east across the prairies this week. Alberta is expected to see a warming trend with temperatures rising above freezing, though this transition brings a risk of freezing rain and northern snowfall. In contrast, Saskatchewan and Manitoba will begin the week under a frigid Arctic high before the arrival of a clipper system brings New Year’s Eve snow to the region.
The Rest of the Winter
Before looking ahead to this week, here’s a very general overview of what to expect for the rest of the winter. Keep in mind long range weather outlooks are not forecasts, and should be treated more like risk assessments. They give us an idea of what to expect, being mindful that with weather, always expect the unexpected.
The chart below shows the average temperature expected in January, February, and March, according to Environment Canada’s CanSIPS model:
The map shows temperatures are expected to average out near the long term means for the first three months of 2026, except for northern Alberta, the Peace Region, and Jasper National Park, where cooler than average weather is expected to continue.
Here is the precipitation chart for the same time period from the same model:
This chart shows above average precipitation is expected in January, February, and March for most of Alberta, and parts of northern Saskatchewan and Manitoba. This is welcome news for drought relief in Alberta, especially in the Peace Region, where drought has been extreme or exceptional. The outlook is not so good for the agricultural regions of Saskatchewan and Manitoba. There, precipitation will be near long term averages, which will be helpful, but may provide little relief from long term and localized drought conditions.
The maps above show averages – there will be warmer than average days, and there will be colder than average days. There will be dry spells, and there will be wet periods. It should all average out to be typical for the firs three months of the year, except for the colder and wetter weather expected in northern Alberta.
This Week
The final days of 2025 and the start of the New Year will see a shift in the weather pattern across the Prairies. While a cold Arctic high lingers over the eastern Prairies to start the week, a series of Pacific lows will pull warmer air into Alberta before tracking southeastward across Saskatchewan and Manitoba.
Monday
Alberta
A large area of low pressure over the Gulf of Alaska will begin to influence the province, helping to pull warmer air northward. While far northern regions can expect some snowfall, much of the province will see a trend toward higher temperatures. The highest temperatures will be in central Alberta, from Jasper to Edmonton and Red Deer, then east to Lloydminster. There, temperatures will likely rise above the melting point. Highs will be slightly below zero south of Red Deer, and in the -15 to -20 degree range in northern Alberta. An Alberta clipper is also expected to develop on Monday, though its primary impacts will be felt further east later in the week. There is the potential for strong wind along highway 3 between Fort Macleod and the BC boundary, though it may remain below warning criteria.
Saskatchewan
The week starts under the influence of cold Arctic high pressure4. Expect mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies with temperatures remaining near the seasonal average. Highs will range from -5 in the southwest to -15 in the north. Expect snow in north and north central regions. As the map below indicates, amounts will be minor:
Manitoba
As shown in the above map, northern Manitoba can expect some snow Monday, but agricultural regions will remain dry. Similar to Saskatchewan, Manitoba will see a cold but quiet start to the week. Sunny to partly cloudy conditions are expected as the Arctic high remains firmly in place. And, as expected, the arctic air mass will be cold. Highs between -15 and -20 can be expected in southern Manitoba and the Interlake. To the north, temperatures will remain below -20 all day.
Tuesday
Alberta
Warmer air continues to dominate, with daytime highs expected to rise above the freezing mark south of Calgary providing a break to humans and livestock alike. Temperatures may even climb to the 5 to 10 degree range near Lethbridge. In north central Alberta, expect highs between -5 and -10. Northern Alberta highs will come in between -15 and -25. However, the warming trend in central and southern regions also brings a risk of freezing rain to western and central parts of the province near and just north of Edmonton, as a second clipper system develops. Snowfall will likely be confined to the far northern regions.
Saskatchewan
It will be slightly warmer than average in southern Saskatchewan Tuesday with highs between -5 and -10. Colder weather will continue north of the Yellowhead highway. Northern areas will get snow, and flurries could fall in areas east of Saskatoon as a low pressure system dropping south from northern Alberta is expected to reach the area late in the day. This will bring increasing cloud cover and a renewed chance for snow. Accumulations should be light – less than 5 cm.
Manitoba
The Alberta clipper arrives….and brings snow to much of central and southern Manitoba during the day. Travel may be impacted by the falling snow and a brisk wind, though the system will move through so fast it won’t have time to produce much accumulation. Expect less than 5 cm. It could get quite mild south of the Trans Canada highway, especially near and south of Brandon, where temperatures could warm close to the melting point. The rest of the province stays cold, with highs in south and central regions between -10 and -20. In the north, highs will only reach the -20 to -30 range.
Wednesday (New Year’s Eve)
Alberta
Very little change in the weather is forecast for Alberta on New Year’s Eve. Snow will continue in the north, with a chance of freezing rain in central regions. The low pressure system generating this precipitation is expected to move into Saskatchewan late in the day, with the sky clearing out behind. There is again a good chance temperatures will climb above the melting point during the afternoon in southwestern Alberta. Otherwise, expect highs between -5 and -10 in southern and central regions – colder to the north. If you’re thinking of ringing in the New Year outdoors, the map below shows expected temperatures at midnight.
Neither wind nor snowfall are expected, so it will be chilly, but not prohibitively cold for outdoor New Year celebrations in most of Alberta.
Saskatchewan and Manitoba
It will be a cold New Year’s Eve, particularly in Manitoba. Wind chills there will likely be in the -30s, quite uncomfortable for outdoor celebrations.
Thursday (Happy New Year!)
Alberta
Yet another Alberta clipper will form near Lethbridge, with the main impact to the north, as snow returns to central and northern Alberta. The south will stay dry, and temperatures south of highway 3 and west of Fort Macleod will rise above the melting point. Mile weather can also be expected in the foothills. However, cold weather persists elsewhere in Alberta, from Claresholm north. Temperatures across the rest of the province will be in the negative double digits. Snowfall accumulations will be minor, generally under 5 cm, with most of the snow falling along the Yellowhead highway corridor, including Edmonton, Vegreville, and Lloydminster.
Saskatchewan
After a few early morning flurries in the southeast, it will be a dry day across Saskatchewan, under a mainly sunny to partly cloudy sky. Late in the day, the next Alberta clipper will bring snow to central Saskatchewan, especially between Saskatoon and Lloydminster. Snowfall amounts will be minor, with most areas getting 5 cm or less. There may be some isolated areas, especially near Rosetown, where slightly higher amounts may fall. It will be seasonably cold across southern and central Saskatchewan, with highs ranging from -10 to -15. In the northern forests, highs will stay below -20.
Manitoba
It will be yet another cold day in Manitoba, with highs only reaching the mid minus teens in the southern and Interlake regions, and staying near -25 in the north. A powerful Low over Hudson bay will retrograde westward, spreading snow into northeastern Manitoba. A tight pressure gradient will lead to some very strong wind, which, combined with the falling snow, has the potential to create blizzard conditions within 150 km of the Hudson Bay coast. As always, with hazardous weather threatening, check for warnings at Environment Canada’s website.
Friday
Alberta
The clipper system that formed near Lethbridge Thursday will move in an uncharacteristically slow pace to the southeast. The circulation around the low will keep southern Alberta dry, but from the Yellowhead highway north, snow is expected. the snow will fall lightly through the midday, then drift northward and intensify. The heaviest snow will fall in the Peace River area, then to the northeast into north central Alberta. Temperatures south of Calgary should breech the melting point, with afternoon highs in the 5-10 degree range. North of Calgary, it will be much colder, with most parts of central Alberta peaking near -10. Further north, it will be 5 to 10 degrees colder.
Saskatchewan
A mix of sun and cloud is expected for most of Saskatchewan for most of the day. A low in southern Alberta will slide south into Montana, and the circulation around it may draw some light snow into southern Saskatchewan. The snow will be very much off and on, affecting south central and southeastern regions. Accumulations will be minor. Significant disruption to travel is not expected. West of Moose Jaw and south of the Trans Canada highway, highs will range between -7 and -10. Elsewhere across the province’s agricultural terrain, highs will come in near -15, and the northern forests will again stay below -20.
Manitoba
It will be a dry day, and mainly sunny across Manitoba on Friday. The strong storm near Hudson Bay will weaken, and the snow in the area will taper off. The weather in the rest of the province will be uneventful, but cold. Highs across the province will be in the -20s, except for areas south of the Trans Canada Highway, and west of Highway 75, where afternoon temperatures will range from -15 to -20.
Saturday
Alberta
As the clipper system that formed Thursday in southern Alberta quickly moves south to Montana, another one forms along the Forestry Trunk Road southwest of Longview. Snow from that new low will again fall in central and northern Alberta in the early morning. However, this low is turbocharged with speed, and by sunrise, it will already have moved into Saskatchewan, dragging snow across central and southern Alberta as it moves east. By noon, the Alberta sky will clear, Arctic high pressure will build, and the entire province will be sunny in the afternoon. As this is an Arctic air mass, it will be a cold day, with temperatures in south central, central, and northern Alberta staying in the -15 to -20 range. In southwestern Alberta, it will again be a bit warmer, with highs between -4 and -9.
Saskatchewan
This is not a forecast for a major storm, but a heads-up. As an Alberta clipper moves into southwestern Saskatchewan in the early morning, there is potential for a brief, but powerful storm to develop in the Swift Current area. The storm, if it happens, would include snow, rain, and freezing rain, with the potential to cause treacherous travel conditions. This is a long way off, and conditions will probably change. Nonetheless, it would be prudent to keep an eye on conditions across Saskatchewan, particularly the southwest, before heading out on Saturday. Snow is likely to fall across most of the province, though it may not be as stormy as in the southwest. There is no way, at the time of this post, to accurately forecast snow amounts. As mentioned, it nay be warm enough for rain when the storm goes through in the early morning. Temperatures in southwestern Saskatchewan could be above zero at 6:00 am. By 6:00 pm, though, long after the storm has passed, temperatures there and across the rest of the province will be well below freezing. Afternoon temperatures will range from -11 to -18 in southern and central regions. In the northern forests, temperatures will remain in the -20s.
Manitoba
The relentless cold in Manitoba continues Saturday, with highs between -19 and -29 across most of the province. A low pressure system passing to the south, will push snow up into southwestern Manitoba in the morning, and that snow will spread across the southern part of the province during the day. Light snow will also cross central and northern regions from west to east through the day, but accumulations will be negligible.
Sunday
Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba
High pressure dominates the prairie provinces Sunday, and most regions will have a sunny day. A passing system travelling from Montana to South Dakota is expected to spread light snow into southern Alberta and Saskatchewan during the afternoon and evening. With the core of the storm staying south, only light snow is expected on the Canadian side of the border. There will be little change in the temperature pattern, with cold Arctic air across the prairies. Most areas will reach the -15 to -25 range, with the exception, again, of southern Alberta, where highs of -5 to -10 can be expected.
LISTEN: RRC Podcast Ep. 20 – A 2025 Prairie Weather Review
