Prairie Weather (Rural Roots Canada) – Snow and more snow. An active weather pattern this week brings significant snow to the partially buried prairies.
Significant snowfall will hit the prairies this week, with the notable exceptions of southwestern Alberta and southern Manitoba. It’s still early December, and almost all of Canada is now beneath a blanket of snow. Vancouver Island, the lower Mainland of BC, and parts of coastal New Brunswick, Nova Scotia, and Newfoundland are the exceptions. Note on the map below, snow cover is scant in central and southeastern Saskatchewan, southern Manitoba, and northwestern Ontario.
And this week, much of the prairies will get significant snowfall. The next two maps, also from Pivotal Weather, show the forecast for snow up to midnight Sunday night
There will be quite a range in snowfall amounts in Alberta, from 80 cm in the Peace River region, to less than 7 cm in the southwestern foothills.
There will also be significant snow in most of Saskatchewan and central and northern Manitoba, as seen on the map below.
The need for snow is greatest in southern Manitoba, and it will be one of the driest areas on an otherwise snowy prairie this week. It may be hard for long-time Manitobans to recall a December with such little snow on the ground. This is what it looked like on the western Perimeter highway at Roblin Boulevard in Winnipeg on December 7. Almost no snow!
Though southern Manitoba and southwestern Alberta will miss out, the rest of the prairies will see a handful of short, but significant snow events this week. Travel, at times, may be impacted.
A broad upper ridge is in place over western Canada, and weak short wave lows ride down the ridge into the southern prairies, meaning the storm track will be active. A strengthening Alberta Clipper is expected to emerge Tuesday, tracking southeast across the southern Prairies. Arctic air will repeatedly spill southward behind it, producing alternating periods of light-to-moderate snow, blowing snow, and sharp temperature swings.
Monday
Alberta
Lingering snow from Sunday continues off and on through the day in central and northern regions. Expect 5-10 cm of snow in the morning, with another 5-10 cm in the evening. In southern Alberta, strong chinook wind will develop, with gusts up to 100 km/h near Pincher Creek and Crowsnest Pass. Cross winds could be strong enough to tip over high profile vehicles with lighter loads. While snow won’t fall from the sky, the wind will be strong enough to kick up some snow from the ground, reducing visibility. The strong wind and wind gusts will extend all along the foothills and Highway 2 as far north as Calgary. In the chinook, south of the Trans Canada Highway, it will be warm, with highs of 1 to 4 degrees. To the north, it will be sharply colder, with highs of -12 to -22. Expect weather warnings to be issued through the day for Alberta. You’ll find them at Environment Canada’s website.
Saskatchewan
Light snow spreads into western sections (Lloydminster to Saskatoon) by late day. Temperatures hover near -10, milder in the south, as chinook wind extends into southwestern Saskatchewan from southern Alberta. The dividing line between the warmer air to the south, and the colder air to the north will pass northwest-southeast through Chamberlain. To the south, highs will rise beyond the melting point. To the north, as mentioned, it will be no warmer than -10. As the Alberta clipper travels along that temperature boundary, it will generate some snow to the north, and by afternoon, snow will fall along the Saskatchewan/Manitoba boundary. Behind the clipper, the sky will clear into the evening, but temperatures should hold steady overnight into Tuesday morning.
Manitoba
Cold, cloudy, and a mostly dry start to the day in southern Manitoba, though snow will move in by midday as an Alberta clipper speeds along from southeastern Saskatchewan toward Grand Forks. And while the early evening snow may fall rather heavily in the Winnipeg area, the clipper will speed through so fast, there won’t be much of a chance for significant accumulation. Almost all of Manitoba south of Thompson can expect to see snow Monday, though not in great amounts. In the south, highs will range from -10 to -14. Central Manitoba will experience highs between -15 and -20 and in the north, highs will be in the mid -20s, with the possibility of extreme wind chill between -35 and -40.
Tuesday
Another Alberta clipper forms in the foothills west of Calgary and speeds east-southeast across the prairies during the day.
Alberta
Snow redevelops in central and northern Alberta before dawn, heavy at times south of Highway 16. Accumulations of 5–15 cm can be expected, with the greatest amounts along the Edmonton–Red Deer corridor. Winds shift sharply westerly then northwesterly at 50–70 km/h, causing reduced visibility in open fields. As the wind shifts away from the west to the northwest, it loses its drying effect for southern Alberta. Due to the warm air, this could result in some rain from Calgary to Lethbridge and along Highway 3 from Lethbridge to Medicine Hat. At first, the rain may evaporate before reaching the ground, so accumulations may be minimal. If the highway pavement temperature is below zero, the rain could freeze once it hits the ground, and driving will be quite dangerous. This is not a likely scenario, but it is possible, and the situation needs to be checked out before driving.
Saskatchewan
The second Alberta clipper of the week crosses midday to evening. As the system goes through, it will drag a cold front across southern Saskatchewan, producing snow and blowing snow along with falling temperatures. By late afternoon, temperatures will fall to the -15 to -20 range, except perhaps for the far south. Temperatures along the US border could stay near zero through most of the day, unless the clipper takes a more southerly track. Snow in southern and central regions could reach 5–10 cm. Possible ice pellets or freezing drizzle are possible near Swift Current and Moose Jaw early in the day.
Manitoba
Clipper reaches southwest Manitoba by afternoon, but the heaviest snow drops south of the border. In western Manitoba, snowfall amounts will likely be under 5 cm. With a northerly wind, highs in southern Manitoba will range from -12 to -15. Outside of western regions, Manitoba will stay dry and cold on Tuesday. In southern and central Manitoba, expect highs from -12 to -19. North of the lakes, temperatures will remain in the -20s.
Wednesday
Alberta
Yet another low forms in the lee of the Rockies in southern Alberta, but this one will be weak, and is not expected to follow the paths of the previous clippers into Saskatchewan. This one will be short lived, but it will be strong enough to enhance snowfall in central and northern Alberta, being produced by a stronger low in northeastern BC. That snow will fall in northern Alberta through the day, as temperatures hover near -20. In southern Alberta, more chinook wind will keep temperatures near or above zero along the foothills, and in most areas south of the Trans Canada Highway. The wind will be brisk, with possible gusts near 70 km/h, east of Calgary.
Saskatchewan
A strong Arctic high plunges southward in Saskatchewan Wednesday, closing the door on any warm air coming in from Alberta. The day begins with a mainly clear sky, but as the high moves south and east during the day, it loses its hold on the western side of the province, allowing afternoon snow to develop within 100 km of the Alberta boundary. The band of snow will then move east toward central Saskatchewan in the evening. South of the Trans Canada Highway, high temperatures will be in the -5 to -10 range, below -15 in central regions, and below -20 in the north. Because of rapidly deteriorating weather in the evening, there may be watches, warnings, and impediments to travel.
Manitoba
Very light early morning snow in western Manitoba will fizzle out, and the sky will clear for most of Manitoba. Wednesday will be a mainly sunny day across the province, but the sunshine is due to arctic high pressure. So, it will be cold. In the interlake and southern Manitoba, highs will only reach the -15 to -20 range. North of the lakes, highs will be closer to -25, with wind chills between -35 and -40.
Thursday
Alberta
Significant weather continues along a sharp frontal boundary, especially across southern Alberta. Freezing rain has already glazed highways from Medicine Hat to Pincher Creek, creating hazardous travel. Cold air funnels south through the province. Mid minus 30s expected tonight across northern and central Alberta, with wind chills near -40, Meanwhile in the Cypress Hills, heavy upslope snow continues. Travel will be slow with drifting and blowing snow. While the coldest overnight weather hits northern and central regions, temperatures in southern Alberta will likely bottom out in the -19 to -23 degree range.
Saskatchewan
An expanding Alberta Clipper spreads snow across southern Saskatchewan, especially in the southwest. Snowfall totals will range from 4 to 8 cm for most farm regions, but Cypress Hills may receive 15 to20 cm due to upslope enhancement. A marginal freezing rain risk persists for the Shaunavon–Assiniboia area. Check for possible warnings here. Expect slick grid roads and poor visibility, especially as winds strengthen later in the day. Overnight low temperatures will drop to the -20 to -25 degree range. From Saskatoon north, wind chills overnight will be in the -30s.
Manitoba
Lingering morning flurries gradually fade as an upper disturbance exits. However, roads may remain icy across central and western Manitoba due to blowing snow from previous days. In the late evening, an Alberta Clipper in southern Saskatchewan will move east, and spread snow into southern Manitoba, potentially creating transportation disruptions. A brisk wind will likely lead to blowing and drifting snow, as overnight temperatures drop to -15 to -20 across the south, and -20 to -25 in the north.
Friday
Alberta
Arctic high pressure will maintain well below average temperatures across Alberta, particularly in central and northern regions, where temperatures will remain in the mid -20s all day. The weather in the south will be more dynamic, as the upslope flow generated by the high will cause snow to fall in the southwestern foothills and, initially, across southern Alberta. As the high moves southeast, snow will expand northwest, and by early evening, snow will fall across Alberta south of the Yellowhead highway. Remaining icy surfaces in southern Alberta may worsen as temperatures fall. The snowy areas will be warmer than where the sky is clear. In southern and southwestern Alberta, highs will reach the minus teens, but to the north, despite sunshine, highs can be expected in the -23 to -28 range.
Saskatchewan
The Alberta Clipper pulls east, leaving gusty northwest winds. Blowing snow may produce intermittent whiteout conditions, particularly in the southwest and exposed farm fields. Another weak impulse may approach late Friday, setting up additional snow for southwestern Saskatchewan by overnight. Arctic air begins to build in behind the system. Overnight wind chills will reach the -40s in central Saskatchewan. The map below shows overnight lows Friday night into Saturday morning, WITHOUT the wind chill:
There is a significant risk of livestock stress as temperatures drop to the mid minus 30s in central Saskatchewan.
Manitoba
Southern Manitoba stays under a mainly clear sky Friday, with clouds more dominant in the north. As the map above shows, central Manitoba will be considerably warmer Friday night, with lows above -20. Away from the clouds, under the clear sky, highs Friday afternoon will range from -17 to -23, falling into the low -20s overnight. Most of the province won’t see any significant weather, but snow is possible between Lake Winnipeg and the Ontario boundary.
Saturday
Alberta
A warming trend begins for southwestern Alberta, but the arctic freeze continues elsewhere. Northern Alberta remains very cold, with an extreme wind chill risk in the early morning. In the afternoon, highs in the north will remain in the -20s, whereas in the south, temperatures will climb to the -8 to -12 degree range. That’s still below average, but it’s the beginning of a trend that will see temperatures climb above the melting point as soon as Sunday. With the warm air moving into the south, the precipitation ends. In the north, snow continues as a low pressure system develops, pulling in moisture from British Columbia. North of Edmonton, where the milder air of the south meets the cold and snowy weather of the north, there is a possibility of freezing rain Saturday evening. Watch for warnings in the area before making plans to head out after sunset.
Saskatchewan
Southwestern Saskatchewan sees the next disturbance approach in the morning, bringing light snow and periods of blowing snow along ridgelines. The snow won’t last long, and accumulations will be minor. By midday, arctic high pressure will clear the sky. Central Saskatchewan turns sharply colder as the arctic air spills south. By early evening, temperatures in many east central locations will have dropped to the -30s. Wind chills across most of the province may reach -40 or colder overnight into Sunday.
Manitoba
It will be a bitterly cold day across western and central Manitoba as the Arctic ridge strengthens. The ridge will provide sunshine, and there will be no significant precipitation on Saturday. However, farmers and truckers should prepare for the possibility of fuel gelling. There will be stress on livestock, which may demand extra feed. With the arrival of the arctic air, temperatures may fall during the day from the minus teens to the minus 20s.
Sunday
Alberta
Northern Alberta will remain cold but stable under high pressure; very light wind. Elsewhere, it will begin to warm up. In Central Alberta, expect highs from -10 to -12, and in the south, chinook wind will develop, and temperatures will climb above the melting point, rising to the 4 to 6 degree range anywhere south of Red Deer. Prepare for slushy roads. North of Edmonton, in the colder air mass, light snow is expected throughout the day.
Saskatchewan
Milder weather returns to Saskatchewan, with chinook conditions in the southwestern part of the province taking temperatures above zero, but only slightly. Elsewhere in southern and central Saskatchewan, highs will be in the -7 to -15 degree range. That’s still below average, but it does represent significant warming. Only in the far north will temperatures remain below -20. That’s also where snow is expected to cross the province from west to east through the day. Agricultural regions will miss out on the snow.
Manitoba
A quiet cold day. Highs will only warm to the -15 to -20 degree range across the province, but early in the day, wind chills in western Manitoba may dip below -40, creating hazardous conditions for ranchers checking herds or managing water lines. Morning cold in eastern Manitoba will be well below average, but less extreme. Expect snow in the northern half of the province. The south will stay dry.
EVENT FORECAST
Prairie Cereals Summit – Banff, December 10 to 12
Wednesday, December 10, Mostly cloudy, light snow or flurries, wind 20 km/h, high -1
Thursday, December 11, Mostly cloudy, light snow, light wind, temperature falling to -12 by late afternoon
Friday, December 12, Mostly cloudy, light snow, light wind, high -2
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