Prairie Weather (Rural Roots Canada) – Snow and more snow. An active weather pattern this week brings significant snow to the partially buried prairies
Significant snowfall will hit the prairies this week, with the notable exceptions of southwestern Alberta and southern Manitoba. It’s still early December, and almost all of Canada is now beneath a blanket of snow. Vancouver Island, the lower Mainland of BC, and parts of coastal New Brunswick, Nova Scotia, and Newfoundland are the exceptions. Note on the map below, snow cover is scant in central and southeastern Saskatchewan, southern Manitoba, and northwestern Ontario.
And this week, much of the prairies will get significant snowfall. The next two maps, also from Pivotal Weather, show the forecast for snow up to midnight Sunday night
There will be quite a range in snowfall amounts in Alberta, from 80 cm in the Peace River region, to less than 7 cm in the southwestern foothills.
There will also be significant snow in most of Saskatchewan and central and northern Manitoba, as seen on the map below.
The need for snow is greatest in southern Manitoba, and it will be one of the driest areas on an otherwise snowy prairie this week. It may be hard for long-time Manitobans to recall a December with such little snow on the ground. This is what it looked like on the western Perimeter highway at Roblin Boulevard in Winnipeg on December 7. Almost no snow!
Though southern Manitoba and southwestern Alberta will miss out, the rest of the prairies will see a handful of short, but significant snow events this week. Travel, at times, may be impacted.
A broad upper ridge is in place over western Canada, and weak short wave lows ride down the ridge into the southern prairies, meaning the storm track will be active. A strengthening Alberta Clipper is expected to emerge Tuesday, tracking southeast across the southern Prairies. Arctic air will repeatedly spill southward behind it, producing alternating periods of light-to-moderate snow, blowing snow, and sharp temperature swings.
Monday
Alberta
Lingering snow from Sunday continues off and on through the day in central and northern regions. Expect 5-10 cm of snow in the morning, with another 5-10 cm in the evening. In southern Alberta, strong chinook wind will develop, with gusts up to 100 km/h near Pincher Creek and Crowsnest Pass. Cross winds could be strong enough to tip over high profile vehicles with lighter loads. While snow won’t fall from the sky, the wind will be strong enough to kick up some snow from the ground, reducing visibility. The strong wind and wind gusts will extend all along the foothills and Highway 2 as far north as Calgary. In the chinook, south of the Trans Canada Highway, it will be warm, with highs of 1 to 4 degrees. To the north, it will be sharply colder, with highs of -12 to -22. Expect weather warnings to be issued through the day for Alberta. You’ll find them at Environment Canada’s website.
Saskatchewan
Light snow spreads into western sections (Lloydminster to Saskatoon) by late day. Temperatures hover near -10, milder in the south, as chinook wind extends into southwestern Saskatchewan from southern Alberta. The dividing line between the warmer air to the south, and the colder air to the north will pass northwest-southeast through Chamberlain. To the south, highs will rise beyond the melting point. To the north, as mentioned, it will be no warmer than -10. As the Alberta clipper travels along that temperature boundary, it will generate some snow to the north, and by afternoon, snow will fall along the Saskatchewan/Manitoba boundary. Behind the clipper, the sky will clear into the evening, but temperatures should hold steady overnight into Tuesday morning.
Manitoba
Cold, cloudy, and a mostly dry start to the day in southern Manitoba, though snow will move in by midday as an Alberta clipper speeds along from southeastern Saskatchewan toward Grand Forks. And while the early evening snow may fall rather heavily in the Winnipeg area, the clipper will speed through so fast, there won’t be much of a chance for significant accumulation. Almost all of Manitoba south of Thompson can expect to see snow Monday, though not in great amounts. In the south, highs will range from -10 to -14. Central Manitoba will experience highs between -15 and -20 and in the north, highs will be in the mid -20s, with the possibility of extreme wind chill between -35 and -40.
Tuesday
Another Alberta clipper forms in the foothills west of Calgary and speeds east-southeast across the prairies during the day.
Alberta
Snow redevelops in central and northern Alberta before dawn, heavy at times south of Highway 16. Accumulations of 5–15 cm can be expected, with the greatest amounts along the Edmonton–Red Deer corridor. Winds shift sharply westerly then northwesterly at 50–70 km/h, causing reduced visibility in open fields. As the wind shifts away from the west to the northwest, it loses its drying effect for southern Alberta. Due to the warm air, this could result in some rain from Calgary to Lethbridge and along Highway 3 from Lethbridge to Medicine Hat. At first, the rain may evaporate before reaching the ground, so accumulations may be minimal. If the highway pavement temperature is below zero, the rain could freeze once it hits the ground, and driving will be quite dangerous. This is not a likely scenario, but it is possible, and the situation needs to be checked out before driving.
Saskatchewan
The second Alberta clipper of the week crosses midday to evening. As the system goes through, it will drag a cold front across southern Saskatchewan, producing snow and blowing snow along with falling temperatures. By late afternoon, temperatures will fall to the -15 to -20 range, except perhaps for the far south. Temperatures along the US border could stay near zero through most of the day, unless the clipper takes a more southerly track. Snow in southern and central regions could reach 5–10 cm. Possible ice pellets or freezing drizzle are possible near Swift Current and Moose Jaw early in the day.
Manitoba
Clipper reaches southwest Manitoba by afternoon, but the heaviest snow drops south of the border. In western Manitoba, snowfall amounts will likely be under 5 cm. With a northerly wind, highs in southern Manitoba will range from -12 to -15. Outside of western regions, Manitoba will stay dry and cold on Tuesday. In southern and central Manitoba, expect highs from -12 to -19. North of the lakes, temperatures will remain in the -20s.
Wednesday
Alberta
Yet another low forms in the lee of the Rockies in southern Alberta, but this one will be weak, and is not expected to follow the paths of the previous clippers into Saskatchewan. This one will be short lived, but it will be strong enough to enhance snowfall in central and northern Alberta, being produced by a stronger low in northeastern BC. That snow will fall in northern Alberta through the day, as temperatures hover near -20. In southern Alberta, more chinook wind will keep temperatures near or above zero along the foothills, and in most areas south of the Trans Canada Highway. The wind will be brisk, with possible gusts near 70 km/h, east of Calgary.
Saskatchewan
A strong Arctic high plunges southward in Saskatchewan Wednesday, closing the door on any warm air coming in from Alberta. The day begins with a mainly clear sky, but as the high moves south and east during the day, it loses its hold on the western side of the province, allowing afternoon snow to develop within 100 km of the Alberta boundary. The band of snow will then move east toward central Saskatchewan in the evening. South of the Trans Canada Highway, high temperatures will be in the -5 to -10 range, below -15 in central regions, and below -20 in the north. Because of rapidly deteriorating weather in the evening, there may be watches, warnings, and impediments to travel.
Manitoba
Very light early morning snow in western Manitoba will fizzle out, and the sky will clear for most of Manitoba. Wednesday will be a mainly sunny day across the province, but the sunshine is due to arctic high pressure. So, it will be cold. In the interlake and southern Manitoba, highs will only reach the -15 to -20 range. North of the lakes, highs will be closer to -25, with wind chills between -35 and -40.
Thursday
Alberta
An arctic high that has been stuck over Yukon all week will expand southeastward into Alberta, and after some early morning snow, the sky should clear out across most of the province. It’s very cold air, and across the province, afternoon temperatures will range from -18 to -25. Wind chill will range from -25 to -35. It will be the coldest weather of the season so far. Vehicles may have to be plugged in, and livestock may be under cold weather stress.
Saskatchewan
A couple of bands of snow will pass across Saskatchewan from west to east, each producing light snow. As the map below shows, accumulations Thursday should remain under 10 cm.
Following the passage of the snow, the sky should clear, and the wind will swing around to the west. It will remain cold, though, with highs below -20 across the province.
Manitoba
Manitoba will be under a cloudy sky Thursday, and as the map above shows, there could be considerable snowfall in the northern part of the province. Central Manitoba will see snow, but in lesser amounts, and the south will remain dry, though there is a good chance of flurries or light snow crossing the area later in the evening. North of Lake Winnipeg, temperatures will remain below -20, and to the south, expect highs between -13 and -20.
Friday
The active weather pattern continues across the prairies. As one system exits out of Manitoba, another arrives in western Alberta.
Alberta
North of Edmonton , it will be a sunny day. Also cold. with temperatures in the mid to low -20s. To the south, it’s a bit warmer, with highs near -15, but active weather returns. Cloud will build in the morning, and through the day, snow will develop across the province south of the Yellowhead Highway to the US border. A southeast flow may enhance snow totals in the foothills and Rockies. It’s a bit early to forecast specific amounts, but if the weather pattern holds, Friday’s snow could be disruptive, and any amount of wind could make it feel like -30. This is stressfully cold weather, for both humans and livestock.
Saskatchewan
Friday will start off dry and rather uneventful in Saskatchewan, though it will be very cold. In the late afternoon, a system producing snow in Alberta will spread its precipitation into southwestern Saskatchewan, reaching Moose Jaw by midnight. At this point, it appears snow amounts will be fairly light, and most of the province won’t get any snow at all on Friday. North of the Yellowhead, arctic high pressure will keep the sky clear and the sun shining. But it is an arctic air mass, so it will be cold. Across the province, high temperatures will only reach -25 to -30, and wind chills will be near -35 all day.
Manitoba
After snow leaves the province for Ontario early in the morning, the sky will clear out, and southern Manitoba should have a mainly sunny day. North of the lakes, clouds and light snow will carry on. The outbreak of cold air remains, with high temperatures in the mid minus 20s, and wind chills near -30.
Saturday and Sunday
Alberta
A weak Pacific shortwave trough brings renewed cloud and light snow over the west Saturday night. Late in the day, some of the snow may work its way east toward Edmonton. Accumulations are nearly impossible to forecast this far in advance, but snow totals appear to be light, as does the wind. Gradual moderation with highs approaching -15. On Sunday, chinook conditions could return to the south, and temperatures will exceed the melting point. Snow continues in central and northern regions, with temperatures near -20 through the day.
Saskatchewan
Mostly clear and very cold through Saturday, then snow Sunday as the Pacific energy clips central regions. Temperatures slowly recover but still 10 to 15 degrees below normal. It will, though, be exceptionally warm in the afternoon along the US border, with highs near zero as some chinook warmth sneaks in from Alberta.
Manitoba
Persistent cold under Arctic ridge. Weekend lows in the minus 20s or colder in the Interlake and north. Highs in southern Alberta will be in the mid minus teens. Only isolated light snow near the Ontario border.
EVENT FORECAST
Prairie Cereals Summit – Banff, December 10 to 12
Wednesday, December 10, Mostly cloudy, light snow or flurries, wind 20 km/h, high -1
Thursday, December 11, Mostly cloudy, light snow, light wind, temperature falling to -12 by late afternoon
Friday, December 12, Mostly cloudy, light snow, light wind, high -2
