Prairie Weather (Rural Roots Canada) – The long wait is over….SNOW this week, and cold weather, too.
An abrupt return to winter is set to impact the Canadian Prairies this week, bringing widespread heavy snowfall, blowing snow, dangerous travel conditions, and plunging Arctic temperatures.
30, 40, even 50 cm of beneficial snow are possible this week across parts of the dry southern Prairies. While the moisture is welcome amid ongoing drought concerns, the storm will create significant hazards for motorists, livestock producers, and rural communities.
Cold Arctic air will surge south as a developing low-pressure system in the northwestern United States pushes accumulating snow into Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba. Snow begins Monday, intensifies Tuesday, and gradually tapers mid-week.
Many areas could receive 10–20 cm by Wednesday, though totals will vary widely. Localized amounts approaching 30 cm, and up to 50 cm in central and northern Saskatchewan, are possible.
Blowing snow Tuesday will significantly reduce visibility across open areas of central and southern Alberta, including along Highways 1, 2 and 16. Travelers should allow extra time and prepare for rapidly changing conditions.
The first map shows snow expected up until Sunday evening in Alberta and BC:
Generally, south of the Yellowhead, snow accumulations this week will be near 20 cm, with 30-40 cm possible for north central Alberta.
Snowfall Forecast by Province
Alberta
South of the Yellowhead Highway, total weekly snowfall will generally be near 20 cm, with 30 -40 cm possible in north-central Alberta.
Blowing snow will be a major issue Tuesday due to strong northwesterly winds. Wind chills will drop into the -20 to -25 range, increasing risks for exposed livestock and anyone outdoors.
Saskatchewan
Southwestern Saskatchewan may finally see measurable snow cover, though totals there will be lighter.
Central and northern Saskatchewan are expected to receive the highest accumulations, with up to 50 cm of snow this week. A northwest-to-southeast corridor from Meadow Lake to Yorkton and into western Manitoba may see the heaviest banding.
Blowing snow will significantly reduce visibility Tuesday and Wednesday, creating hazardous highway conditions.
Manitoba
Southern Manitoba could see more than 30 cm of snow, especially mid-week as moisture feeds northward from a U.S. low-pressure system.
Unlike Alberta and Saskatchewan, Manitoba will experience less intense northwest wind, meaning snowfall may be heavier but with somewhat reduced blowing snow risk. However, travel conditions will still deteriorate quickly during heavier bursts.
Day-by-day:
Monday
Alberta
A big change in the weather pattern brings big changes in the weather. Winter returns, and in an abrupt way. Snow falls, and intensifies in western Alberta during the afternoon, moving fairly quickly eastward to Saskatchewan in the evening. The maps above show total snow up to Sunday night, but most of that will fall from Monday to Wednesday evening. Snow will fall through much of the day Monday in north central and northwestern Alberta, including Grande Prairie and the Peace Region. In that area, the pressure gradient will be tight, meaning blowing snow is a likely hazard, especially in the afternoon. Blowing snow will develop in open areas south and southeast of Edmonton on Monday evening, possibly as far south as Calgary. In southern and central Alberta, Monday morning’s lows will be between -8 and -12, with afternoon highs in central Alberta coming in just below 0. South of the Trans Canada Highway, Monday will be the last day of very warm weather with highs in the low double digits. All of this will set us up for a true return to winter on Tuesday. Livestock movements should be accomplished Monday, ahead of the coming adverse weather.
Saskatchewan
It’s a “calm before the storm” kind of day in Saskatchewan. It will be a rather chilly morning, with temperatures in the -10 to -15 degree range in the south, and between -13 and -25 in the north. South of the Trans Canada Highway, there will be one more warm day with highs in the 7 to 9 degree range in the afternoon. In central Saskatchewan, highs will range from -5 to -9, and temperatures will stay in the negative double digits in the north. Southern and Northern Saskatchewan will be mainly sunny through the day, but central regions will be cloudy, and a few snow showers can’t be ruled out. No significant accumulations are expected. Yet.
Manitoba
While snow falls all day in northern Manitoba due to a Low near Hudson Bay, the south, and all parts of agro-Manitoba will remain dry. Locally, some highs may reach the melting point between the southern tip of Lake Manitoba to the US border. Elsewhere in southern and central regions, highs will range from -4 to -9.
Tuesday
Intense snow, strong wind, and a reverse temperature trend, where afternoon temperatures fall, rather than typically rise. Big changes Tuesday. This is Environment Canada’s significant weather outlook for Tuesday, showing expected snow totals between 6:00 pm Monday and 6:00 pm Tuesday (MST):
Alberta
Widespread blowing snow is expected in Alberta Tuesday. The map above shows potential accumulation. Combine the snow with a strong northwesterly wind, and blowing snow will be a significant problem, causing reduced visibility, difficulty traveling, and high wind chill, though below warning level. As the cold front moves through, temperatures in Alberta will fall through the day. In the early morning, it will be warmer than -10 south of the Trans Canada Highway, and in the -12 to -16 range to the north. By 6:00 pm, it will be at least five degrees cooler, province-wide. More significantly, wind chill will be in the -20 to -25 degree range from noon onward.
Saskatchewan and Manitoba
A low in Montana, with an inverted trough extending into Canada will bring snow to Saskatchewan and Manitoba from Tuesday to Thursday. At times, expect heavy snowfall and blowing snow, with accumulations of 15 to 25 cm, along with reduced visibility. Freezing rain can’t be ruled out south of the Trans Canada highway. By afternoon, it will be snowing in nearly all of Saskatchewan. As we’ve seen repeatedly over the winter, the track of heaviest snow could be in a northwest to southeast line from Meadow Lake to Yorkton, to western Manitoba, possibly reaching the Red River Valley by late afternoon. Eastern Manitoba, the Interlake, and northern regions should stay dry. By Tuesday evening, the Montana low will have moved into Minnesota, pulling the snow across the Canadian Prairies. Unlike Alberta, temperatures will not fall during the day. Expect afternoon temperatures between +2 and -5 in the southern regions of both provincess. In central and northern areas, expect highs between -10 and -20. In the far north, it will be much colder with daytime temperatures between -25 and -30.
Wednesday
Alberta
Some sunshine returns to Alberta on Wednesday, as the system that brought snow Tuesday pulls off to the east. However, clouds will return to southern Alberta in the afternoon, and more snow is expected late in the day, south of the Trans Canada Highway. Central Alberta will be under a mix of sun and cloud. However, arctic air continues to circulate into the province around a High not far from Yellowknife. So, despite the return of at least some sunshine, high temperatures across most of the province will be stuck near -20, plus or minus 2 or 3 degrees.
Saskatchewan
It’s another wintry day in Saskatchewan – cold, windy, and snowing. Across the southern 2/3rds of the province, highs will remain in the -10 to -20 degree range, and below -20 in the far north. There will, though, be just enough wind to make it feel like it’s in the -20s or even the -3os. And, of course, because it will be snowing through most of the day in most of the province, travel safety will be compromised by blowing snow. The map below shows how much snow can be expected on Wednesday:
Manitoba
As the map above shows, it will be a snowy day in southern Manitoba on Wednesday, with moisture continuing to be fed in from a Low in the US. Accumulations in many areas will exceed 20 cm. Because of the positioning of the weather systems, Manitoba won’t experience the strong northwest wind that will happen in Saskatchewan. So…it will be a relatively warm, snowy day. Afternoon high temperatures will range from -4 to -7 in southern Manitoba and the Interlake, with negative double digit temperatures remaining in central and northern regions.
Thursday
Alberta
Arctic high pressure builds over Alberta during the day, keeping the sky mainly sunny, but at the same time, drawing very cold air into the province. Most areas will stay cold with highs between -15 and -20. Wind chills will range from -24 and -28. With the return of sunshine, travel in open areas will become less hazardous. Calmer wind will ease stress on livestock, already coping with very cold air.
Saskatchewan
A bit of a battle will play out over southern Saskatchewan on Thursday. Arctic high pressure will clear out the sky in northern Saskatchewan, and provide some very cold air. However, a midlevel low pressure system in northeastern Montana is ready to fight, and push cloud northward, and even generate some snow in southern Saskatchewan. Confidence in the snow forecast is pretty low, but there is much higher confidence in the Arctic high to the north. From that high, cold air will plunge southward throughout Saskatchewan, and afternoon highs will remain near -20, with wind chills near -30.
Manitoba
Some of the relatively warm air left over from Wednesday will linger in southeastern Manitoba on Thursday. Steinbach could see highs near -5 to -7, while on the other side of the province, Brandon may only reach -13. Other than the southeast, temperatures won’t break through the -12 mark. Of course, there’s more to the story. The warm air in the southeast is associated with an inverted trough, and will bring snow to the region. An upper level low over Lake of the Woods will add to the chances for snow. From the Whiteshell, past the east side of Lake Winnipeg and all the way north to Thompson, expect up to 10 cm.
Friday
Alberta and Saskatchewan
Sunshine returns to Alberta, along with central and northern Saskatchewan on Friday. Cloud cover remains south of the Trans Canada Highway, and a few afternoon snow flurries cannot be ruled out, due to a Low in eastern Montana. Amounts will not be significant. Temperatures in both province will remain below average, with highs in Alberta and southwestern Saskatchewan ranging from -10 to -15. From Saskatoon south to Regina and Estevan, and east to the Manitoba boundary, afternoon highs will get stuck below -20
Manitoba
It’ll be another cold day in Manitoba as well, with temperatures in the afternoon only reaching the mid minus teens. The colder air finally makes its way into southeastern Manitoba, where, like the rest of the province, highs will be in the -13 to -15 degree range. The inverted trough that produced snow on Thursday will still be in place Friday morning, and will be slow to move out during the day. And that means more snow for the area from the Whiteshell to Thompson. Amounts will be lighter, generally less than 5 cm.
Saturday and Sunday
Dry weather returns to all three of the prairie provinces on the weekend, as a ridge of high pressure clears the sky from Vancouver to Kenora. Again, it is an arctic ridge, and the weekend will remain very cold. Daytime highs across all three provinces will remain below -10. The coldest weekend weather happens in Saskatchewan, with lows from -30 to -35, and highs only near -25. In southern Alberta weekend highs will range from -10 to -15, and in southern Manitoba, from -15 to -21.
COMPARE: Prairie Weather This Week – Feb 9
