Prairie Weather (Rural Roots Canada) – Sharp east-west temperature divide persists, as the dry pattern continues across the southern prairies
A persistent weather stalemate across the Canadian Prairies is expected to continue for at least another week or two. The Prairies remain sharply divided, with winter firmly entrenched in the east and spring-like conditions holding on in the west.
Across Manitoba and eastern Saskatchewan, it’s full parka weather, with temperatures hovering near -30 under a stubborn Arctic air mass. Meanwhile, Alberta and western Saskatchewan are experiencing much milder conditions. Temperatures are more typical of late April or May, making spring windbreakers more appropriate than winter coats.
This dramatic east-west temperature gradient is locked in place by a blocking pattern over Greenland, which prevents large-scale weather systems from moving eastward. The result is an atmospheric traffic jam that is likely to persist through Valentine’s Day.
Under this setup, the western Prairies remain influenced by mild Pacific air, while the eastern Prairies stay trapped in a frigid northerly flow. The pattern is not only stagnant-it’s also very dry.
Northern Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba continue to see repeated Alberta Clippers. The fast moving systems that bring occasional light snow but fail to deliver the widespread, moisture-rich snowfall needed to ease growing precipitation and soil moisture deficits. Further south, southern Alberta and southwestern Saskatchewan can expect another largely snow free week, as these clipper systems track well to the north.
With no major storm systems on the horizon, Prairie drought concerns remain elevated as winter progresses with limited snowpack accumulation. Outside major towns and cities, there is no snow on the ground in Alberta from Highway 27 south to the US border. This image was captured February 1 near Olds:
The map below shows total snowfall expected up to the evening of Sunday, February 8:
The situation is becoming concerning, though spring is often a snowier season than winter in southern Alberta, and there is still room and time for hope.
While Alberta gets double digit highs, and Manitoba suffers through incredible cold, Saskatchewan is the battleground. The western side of the province is tapping into some of the mild air, while the eastern side remains cold, though not as cold as Manitoba.
Monday
Alberta
A fast-moving Alberta clipper tracking through southwestern Saskatchewan Monday morning will spread 6 to 8 cm of snowfall across a broad corridor from Lloydminster northwest to Peace River. Areas farther south will remain dry and unseasonably mild, as a westerly wind flow dominates central and southern Alberta.
By Monday afternoon, snow across east-central and northern Alberta will shift east into Saskatchewan. In its wake, mild Pacific air will move in, pushing temperatures above freezing across much of the province. This warming trend may lead to partial melting of freshly fallen snow, particularly on roads and exposed fields.
Across central and southern Alberta, daytime highs will range from 3°C to 10°C, continuing the pattern of winter thaw conditions that have eliminated snow cover, but have improved short-term livestock comfort.
Saskatchewan
A fast-moving clipper system will bring light snow to much of Saskatchewan through the day. In southwestern Saskatchewan, temperatures may rise enough for rain or freezing rain to mix in with snow, particularly near Swift Current and Maple Creek.
As the system pushes south into the United States, precipitation will weaken. Snowfall accumulations of 2 to 6 cm are most likely along a corridor from Oxbow northwest to Lloydminster.
Temperatures will rise above the melting point near Swift Current and Maple Creek, remain near -5 through the rest of southern and west central Saskatchewan, and range from -10 to -15 in the north, and all along the Manitoba boundary.
Manitoba
Arctic air continues to dominate Manitoba, with daytime highs ranging from -20 to -30 across the province. While temperatures will be dangerously cold, the wind will remain light, keeping wind chill values manageable compared to recent outbreaks.
A strong Arctic high pressure system centered near Saint Ambroise will maintain clear skies and abundant sunshine. Despite the sun, the extreme cold will place significant stress on livestock, infrastructure, and exposed equipment, particularly in rural and agricultural areas.
Tuesday
Alberta
A few early-morning flurries are possible over the Rocky Mountains, but across the flatter terrain of Alberta, a persistent westerly wind will maintain dry weather through Tuesday. Expect mostly cloudy conditions in Grande Prairie and the Peace Region, with a mix of sun and cloud across central and southern Alberta.
It will be another exceptionally warm February day in southern Alberta, with double-digit temperatures possible south of Highway 3.
In south-central Alberta, afternoon highs will range from 2 to 6 degrees. Farther north, including areas north of Edmonton, temperatures will remain below freezing, ranging from -3 to -9, helping preserve existing snowpack.
Saskatchewan
Tuesday will bring seasonably cool winter weather across Saskatchewan. Cloud cover will increase from west to east throughout the day, though no significant precipitation is expected.
Daytime highs across central and southern Saskatchewan will range from -3 to -10, while northern Saskatchewan will remain colder, with highs near -15. A few light flurries are possible in central and northern regions during the morning and midday, but snow accumulations will be minimal.
Manitoba
Once again, Manitoba will experience the most wintry conditions on the Prairies. A low-pressure system tracking through southern Manitoba will spread light snowfall across much of the province.
Snowfall totals will generally be light, ranging from 1 to 5 cm, with the heaviest accumulations expected in the Flin Flon and The Pas region. Agricultural areas in southern Manitoba should receive only 1 to 2 cm, limiting impacts to field conditions.
Temperatures will vary across the province. West of the Red River Valley: a brief moderation with highs from -3°to -5; east of the Red River Valley and across central and northern Manitoba: persistent cold, with highs near -15.
Wednesday
Alberta
A mix of rain, freezing rain, and snow will move across Alberta’s boreal forest early Wednesday, staying close to the Northwest Territories boundary. The low pressure system driving this precipitation will track near the 60th parallel, with most of its moisture remaining north of Alberta in the Territories.
Farther south, a lee trough developing along the eastern slopes of the Alberta Rockies will generate a strong westerly flow, ushering in warm, dry air across the majority of the province. Expect a mix of sunshine and chinook cloud, with dry conditions persisting province-wide.
This prolonged dryness continues to intensify concerns about the growing moisture deficit, particularly for agricultural regions. Temperatures will be extraordinarily warm for early February, with the potential for double-digit highs reaching as far north as Edmonton.
The map below shows expected temperatures at 5:00 in the afternoon:
Saskatchewan
As shown in the temperature map above, Saskatchewan will experience a notable warm-up, with much of the province climbing above the freezing mark. This warming trend will lead to continued thinning of the snowpack, especially across southern and central agricultural areas.
A low-pressure system tracking west to east along the 60th parallel will bring snow to northern Saskatchewan’s forested regions, while farming areas remain dry. With sunshine and a westerly wind, warm air spilling east from Alberta will displace the previous cold air mass, reinforcing the mild conditions.
Manitoba
Significant snowfall is expected across parts of Manitoba on Wednesday, though agricultural regions will largely be spared. A low-pressure system near the 60th parallel will produce heavy snow across the northern half of the province, with accumulations of 10 cm or more possible.
Across southern Manitoba and the Interlake, conditions will remain dry and cloudy, with highs ranging from -1 to -10. In northern Manitoba, where the snow falls, afternoon temperatures will hover near -15°C, maintaining true winter conditions.
Thursday
Alberta
An Alberta Clipper will develop over northern British Columbia and Alberta, spreading a mix of snow, rain, and freezing rain into Alberta’s northern boreal forest. Central and southern Alberta will remain largely dry, as the bulk of the moisture stays confined to northern regions.
Across the northern forests, widespread snowfall of 5 to 10 cm is expected, with localized totals up to 20 cm north of Fort McMurray. A persistent westerly wind will continue across the province, promoting sunny skies in central and southern Alberta.
Highs south of the Trans Canada highway will reach the mid teens, and temperatures will climb above the melting point elsewhere in the province, except for the northernmost part of the northern forests. There will be no significant precipitation for agricultural regions.
Saskatchewan
Snow will develop from west to east, spreading across northern and central Saskatchewan, with the heaviest snowfall focused on central and northern regions. Accumulating snow is most likely along a province wide northwest-to-southeast corridor from Buffalo Narrows toward Preeceville, Canora, and Kamsack.
This light to moderate snowfall will improve short-term surface moisture but will do little to address long-term precipitation deficits. Agricultural areas across central and southern Saskatchewan will largely remain dry.
South of the Yellowhead Highway, highs will rise above the melting point, and perhaps even reach double digits near Val Marie. North of Saskatoon, expect highs near or below -1o.
Manitoba
Southern Manitoba will finally see a meaningful, but brief break from winter cold, with temperatures rising above freezing south of the lakes. Across the Interlake region, highs will range from -5°C to -10°C, while arctic air persists farther north, keeping temperatures in the minus teens to minus 20s.
A clipper system tracking northwest to southeast across Manitoba is expected to produce a mix of rain and snow across the Interlake and southeastern Manitoba. In southern Manitoba west of Winnipeg, conditions may remain dry all day, depending on the exact track of the system.
Friday
Alberta and Saskatchewan
Friday will be a mostly sunny and dry day across Alberta and Saskatchewan, with no precipitation expected in agricultural regions of either province. A brief area of late-morning light snow may brush northeastern Saskatchewan, but impacts will be minimal and confined to non-agricultural areas.
With clear skies and light winds, solar heating will be efficient—especially in southern Alberta, where the lack of snow cover will allow temperatures to surge. Highs will rebound into the mid-teens south of Highway 3, affecting communities such as Lethbridge, Milk River, Taber, Bow Island, and Medicine Hat.
This unseasonable warmth will extend eastward into southern Saskatchewan, where highs will climb into the 5 to 8 degree range. Across central Alberta, temperatures will rise slightly above freezing, while central Saskatchewan will hover just below 0.
Farther north, winter conditions persist, with highs in the mid minus teens across northern Alberta and northern Saskatchewan.
Manitoba
After briefly rising above freezing on Thursday, cooler weather returns to southern Manitoba on Friday. Highs will range from 0 to -5 west of the Red River Valley, while east of the valley, temperatures will settle between -7 and -10. The Interlake region will be about five degrees colder, maintaining more typical winter conditions.
In northern Manitoba, especially north of Gillam, arctic air remains firmly in place, with highs between -28 and -31.
A fast-moving disturbance will bring light snow Friday afternoon from Gillam south toward Gimli, though accumulations will be minor due to the system’s quick passage. Manitoba’s major agricultural regions will be bypassed, keeping field conditions dry.
Saturday and Sunday
Two Alberta clippers will trek across northern Alberta and Saskatchewan on the weekend, before turning southeast into Manitoba. These areas will receive snow over the weekend. Southern and central Alberta are likely to continue in a dry weather pattern, though as the second clipper enters Saskatchewan on Sunday it will likely produce rain south of Saskatoon, and snow in the north. Manitoba can expect snow across most agricultural regions both Saturday and Sunday. It’s too soon for further detail, though we will have better information in the update we post here on Thursday. The temperature pattern will remain the same, with very warm weather for southern Alberta and Saskatchewan, and cold conditions continue for northern regions and Manitoba.
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