Prairie Weather (Rural Roots Canada) – Finally – a shift in the weather pattern. Temperatures even out, but will there be snow?
A long-anticipated pattern change is beginning to take shape across western North America, and it will influence Prairie weather through the coming week. The persistent northwest flow that has dominated much of the winter, delivering warmth to Alberta, and wintry conditions to the eastern prairies, is gradually giving way to a more southwesterly storm track.
For the Canadian Prairies, this means less extreme cold, especially in Manitoba, cooler but more seasonable temperatures in Alberta, and increasing confidence in a more active precipitation pattern later in February. While this week does not bring widespread heavy snow, it represents an important transition toward improved moisture prospects heading into late winter and early spring.
We’ve been mentioning for some time that the current weather pattern was expected to last until Valentine’s Day, and that is still the plan, with the ongoing changes becoming more significant next week.
The map below shows total snowfall expected up until Sunday night. The snow in Alberta won’t happen until the weekend, and all across the agricultural regions of the prairies, snow amounts will again be minimal to insignificant this week.
Monday
Alberta
Southern and central Alberta start the week under weakening high pressure. Expect a mix of sun and cloud with daytime highs in the 4 to 8 degree range south of Red Deer. That’s cooler than the recent spring-like warmth but still mild for February. A weak disturbance may generate isolated flurries, along the US border, mainly east of Milk River. The rest of the province will stay dry, with highs just below zero north of Edmonton, and in the minus teens in the far north. Snow cover remains minimal, leaving winter cereals, pasture, and forage crops exposed. The wind will be light to moderate, from the south.
Saskatchewan
Dry and relatively mild conditions continue across western Saskatchewan. Highs range from -2 to +3. warmest in southern and western regions. The wind will be light. On the eastern side of the province it will be cooler, windier, and snowier. A low pressure system over Lake Winnipeg will send snow back into eastern, central, and northern Saskatchewan during the day. 5-10 cm of snow will fall north of the Yellowhead highway, and east of Saskatoon. That area of snow will extend north to the Northwest Territories boundary. South of the Yellowhead, there will be no significant snowfall, and the ongoing lack of snow cover continues to limit soil moisture recharge.
Manitoba
It will be a snowy day in most of Manitoba, but not for the agricultural regions in the south. 5-15 cm of snow will fall from the northern Interlake to Nunavut. The heaviest snow accumulations are likely to occur near Flin Flon, which, as the image below shows, has been one of the snowier regions on the prairies this winter.
Temperatures finally moderate after an extended stretch of Arctic cold. Highs reach -3 to -5 in southern Manitoba and the Ingterlake. Further north, expect highs from -10 to -15.
Tuesday
Alberta
Another mainly sunny and mild day is expected across Alberta. Temperatures will climb into the 3 to 7 degree range south of the Yellowhead Highway, while northern regions remain cooler but still mild for February, with highs from -5 to -10.
The warm conditions in southern Alberta are being driven by a surface trough of low pressure along the eastern slopes of the Rockies, allowing mild Pacific air to spill eastward. Westerly winds will generally be light, though gusty winds are possible near the Crowsnest Pass and Pincher Creek.
Continued lack of snow cover leaves winter crops and forage exposed, while repeated freeze/thaw cycles limit moisture retention.
Saskatchewan
Snow exits eastern Saskatchewan early Tuesday, while sunshine returns to southern regions. With the sun climbing higher in the sky this time of year, snowmelt will occur even where temperatures hover just below zero.
Across most areas south of the Yellowhead Highway, highs will reach around +5, while northern Saskatchewan remains cooler with temperatures between -2 and -9. Winds will be light and variable in the south, with stronger southeast winds developing in the north.
Manitoba
The low pressure system responsible for recent snow across central and northern Manitoba continues to pull east. Early day snow is still possible east of Lake Winnipeg and north toward Hudson Bay, followed by clearing skies as high pressure builds in.
Most of Manitoba will see partly cloudy conditions, with afternoon highs ranging from -5 to -10 in agricultural regions, and -10 to -15 in the north.
Wednesday
Alberta
Mild conditions persist across southern Alberta, with highs again reaching the positive single digits. Northeastern Alberta will be slightly cooler, with highs just below freezing. A weak upper-level trough moves through early, followed by a strengthening ridge of high pressure, resulting in abundant sunshine province-wide. No precipitation is expected.
The wait for meaningful snowfall continues, maintaining concerns over soil moisture deficits.
Saskatchewan
For southern Saskatchewan, the day will start sunny and stay that way. For the northern half of the province, expect cloud in the morning, giving way to afternoon sun. The only snow anticipated for Wednesday in Saskatchewan will occur along the border with the Northwest Territories, in the boreal forest. Agriculture regions will again stay dry, and there will be no significant snowfall Wednesday for moisture-stressed regions like Rush Lake, where it is clearly needed:
Highs in southern Saskatchewan will range from -2 to +2, and in central and northern regions, expect afternoon temperatures between -5 and -10.
Manitoba
Wednesday will be quiet and dry across most of Manitoba. A low pressure system in Nunavut drags snow across the far northern regions, but the remainder of the province stays dry. Southern Manitoba enjoys a sunny day, while highs across the province range from -5 to -10, mild for the north, seasonable for the south.
Thursday
Alberta and Saskatchewan
A flat upper ridge continues to dominate, delivering widespread sunshine across both provinces. Northeastern Saskatchewan may see some passing cloud, but overcast conditions are unlikely.
No snow is expected anywhere in Saskatchewan, extending the dry pattern. Temperatures rise above freezing across Alberta and southern Saskatchewan, with highs between 4 and 9. Central and northern Saskatchewan remain warmer than average, with highs from -3 to -8.
Manitoba
It will also be a dry day across Manitoba, but unlike the neighboring provinces to the west, cloud will be more predominant, especially in the north. In southern Manitoba, there will be a mix of sun and cloud. Temperatures across the south will peak near -3 or -4, with highs between -5 and -7 in the north.
Friday
Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba
Weather conditions become remarkably consistent across the Prairies. Southern regions enjoy sunshine, while northern areas remain cloudier.
A strong west-to-east (zonal) flow aloft keeps conditions dry for another day, ahead of a potential weekend pattern change. Temperatures remain milder than average across all three provinces.
Saturday and Sunday
On the animated map below, it may be a bit hard to see, but Alberta and Saskatchewan are in the top right quadrant. And if this is correct, it looks like we may finally see some snow over the weekend in southern Alberta and southern Saskatchewan:
The snow coverage is scattered, and there may not be enough to make much of a difference. In southern Alberta only about 5-7 cm will fall over the two weekend days, with even less in Saskatchewan. this is, though, a long range forecast, and those totals are apt to change as we get closer to the weekend. While this snow is not significant in and of itself, what is significant is the change in the weather pattern that should bring us colder, and snowier weather for the second half of the month.
COMPARE: Prairie Weather This Week – Feb 2
