Prairie Weather (Rural Roots Canada) – Colder, yes. Snowier, no. Little relief for the snow-starved prairies this week
A predominantly dry weather pattern will persist across the Canadian Prairies this week, with no major snowstorms expected. Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba will see limited precipitation overall, as weak Alberta Clipper systems move through the region in a steady northwesterly flow.
These fast-moving clipper systems may produce brief, light snowfalls in localized areas. Accumulations are expected to remain minor and short-lived. Widespread or significant snowfall is unlikely through the end of the week.
The animated weather map below illustrates how these weak systems will track across the Prairies through Sunday night, reinforcing the ongoing dry trend across the region.
As the maps indicate, snowfall across the Canadian Prairies will be minimal through the end of the week. Most of Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba are expected to see little to no snow accumulation, continuing the overall dry winter pattern.
The main exception is southwestern Saskatchewan, where a more organized weather system could bring locally significant snowfall early Wednesday morning. In this area, snow totals may be notably higher compared to the rest of the Prairies.
The snowfall accumulation maps below highlight expected totals across the region through Sunday night.
As colourful as the above maps may be, they show most of the agricultural land on the prairies will receive less than 10 cm of snow this week. In southern Alberta and the Peace region, some areas may not get any snow at all this week. Fields in southern Alberta will remain brown…
Contrast the image above with a photo grab at about the same time from Oakville, Manitoba, where the Trans Canada Highway was closed.
While the two photos above are outdated at the time you’re reading this, they illustrate the contrast in the weather that’s been happening over the past week or two across the prairies. And, for the most part, that contrast will continue this week.
Monday
Alberta
Snowfall on Monday will be limited across most of Alberta, with the main exception in the far northeastern corner of the province. A warm front pushing south from the Northwest Territories could produce up to 5 cm of snow in that region.
Elsewhere in Alberta, conditions will remain mostly dry. Crowsnest Pass may see some light snow, but totals are expected to stay below 2 cm, and with temperatures hovering near zero, little to no accumulation is expected.
Southern Alberta temperatures will remain above freezing, particularly from Milk River through Lethbridge and northwest toward High River. In contrast, eastern, central, and northern Alberta will stay below freezing, with daytime highs ranging from -7 to -16. Due to the urban heat island effect, Calgary may be slightly warmer, with temperatures just below the melting point.
Light snow is expected to develop Monday evening and overnight across southern and south central Alberta, with 1-2 cm common. Enhanced upslope flow could increase totals to around 5 cm in the Cypress Hills.
Saskatchewan
A dry and partly cloudy day is expected across Saskatchewan, with a westerly wind dominating during daylight hours. By evening, a surface low pressure system will develop along the Alberta-Saskatchewan boundary north of Lloydminster.
As a warm front moves eastward, light snow will begin in a north-south band across western Saskatchewan. Areas north of the Trans-Canada Highway and west of Saskatoon could see 4-5 cm of snow accumulation by Tuesday morning. Elsewhere, snowfall amounts will remain minimal.
Temperatures in the warm front affected areas of western Saskatchewan will rise to -12 to -14, while central, eastern, and northern regions remain much colder, with highs in the mid minus 20s and wind chills in the -30s.
Manitoba
Manitoba will experience a very cold and dry day on Monday, with high temperatures near -20 across most of the province. Sunshine will dominate, except near Hudson Bay, where snow and blowing snow are expected.
Wind chills will fall below -25 during the day, plunging into the mid -30s Monday night into Tuesday morning, increasing the risk of frostbite with prolonged outdoor exposure.
Tuesday
Alberta
Snow will develop across northern Alberta early Tuesday morning, circulating around a weak low pressure system north of Lloydminster. This system qualifies as a weak Alberta Clipper, impacting both Alberta and Saskatchewan.
As the low drifts south, light snow will spread into central and southern Alberta, though accumulations will remain minimal. Winds will be brisk, particularly between Coronation and Lloydminster, as well as near High Level and Fort Chipewyan, where blowing snow may reduce visibility.
By afternoon, snow will become confined to northwestern Alberta, with clearing skies spreading in from the south. Despite the wintry appearance, temperatures will be relatively mild, with daytime highs ranging from -1 to -5 across much of the province.
Saskatchewan
Before sunrise, a weak low pressure system north of Lloydminster will move southeast across southern Saskatchewan, spreading light snow across much of the province by midday. While snowfall will generally be light, blowing snow may reduce visibility in exposed areas.
By evening and overnight into Wednesday morning, pockets of heavier snow are expected to develop in southwestern Saskatchewan, particularly near the Cypress Hills. Most regions will receive 3-6 cm of snow, with locally higher totals in elevated terrain.
Temperatures in western Saskatchewan will reach -4 to -8, while central and eastern regions remain colder, with highs in the minus teens.
Manitoba
Manitoba will start the day dry but increasingly cloudy. By late afternoon, snow will move into the province from The Pas southward along the Saskatchewan boundary, reaching roughly halfway across Manitoba.
Southern Manitoba will remain dry until late afternoon or evening, when snow spreads south to cover areas south of Thompson. This is not a major snow event, with most regions receiving 1-3 cm of snow by Wednesday morning.
Cold temperatures will dominate, with highs of -15 to -19°C in western and central Manitoba. In the Red River Valley, eastern Manitoba, and northern regions, daytime highs will stay below -20.
Wednesday
Alberta
Residual flurries from Tuesday’s system will linger east of Highway 2 during the morning, becoming scattered and exiting the province by midday. Clearing skies and a westerly wind will follow.
Mild conditions will persist for January standards, with highs near -5 in southern Alberta, -10 in central regions, and -15 in the north. Winds will remain light, resulting in a quiet and manageable weather day across the province.
Saskatchewan
Light snow will continue across Saskatchewan throughout the day, though most areas will receive 5 cm or less. Southwestern Saskatchewan remains the exception, where localized totals could reach up to 10 cm.
During the afternoon, strong winds south of the Trans Canada Highway will combine with falling snow to create blowing snow and reduced visibility. Travel conditions may deteriorate, and motorists are advised to monitor Saskatchewan Highway Hotline and Environment Canada advisories.
Temperatures will remain cold, with highs of -10 to -15 in southern and central Saskatchewan, and -15 to -20 in the north. In far northern regions, wind chills may approach -40.
Manitoba
Bitterly cold conditions will dominate Manitoba on Wednesday. Snow flurries will move slowly from northwest to southeast, producing less than 5 cm of accumulation in most areas.
Extreme cold is the primary concern. Southern Manitoba will see highs between -15 and -20, while northern Manitoba plunges to -25 to -30.
Wind chills will reach -40 to -50 in northern Manitoba, posing a serious risk of frostbite. In the southern half of the province, wind chills will remain near -30, even with wind speeds generally below 15 km/h.
Thursday
A multi-day extreme cold weather event is underway, driven entirely by Arctic high pressure. A slight warming trend is expected by the weekend. Meantime, the cold is persistent and dangerous, especially in Saskatchewan and Manitoba, where wind chills could, at times, come close to -50. For updated Environment Canada warnings, click here.
Alberta
As Arctic high pressure strengthens over the Northwest Territories, a surge of very cold Arctic air will spill southward across the Canadian Prairies. While all three Prairie provinces will feel the chill, Alberta is expected to be the warmest of the region during this cold outbreak.
In Alberta, circulation around the Arctic high may generate areas of light snow or flurries, particularly across central and southeastern parts of the province, mainly during the afternoon hours. Snowfall amounts will remain light, with no significant accumulations expected.
Temperatures across central and southern Alberta will remain cold, with daytime highs generally ranging from -13 to -17. Farther south, from Claresholm through Lethbridge to Milk River, slightly milder conditions are expected, with highs closer to -10.
As the temperature map below illustrates, Alberta will be comparatively mild, while Saskatchewan and Manitoba endure much colder conditions, with widespread Arctic air dominating the region. The map highlights early evening temperatures, showing the sharp contrast across the Prairie provinces.
Saskatchewan and Manitoba
Check out the map above. Thursday will be a cold day in Saskatchewan and Manitoba. Now, if you dare, check out the map below, showing wind chills in the early evening:
Stay inside if you can! Wind chills in Saskatchewan and Manitoba will be in the -30s and -40s, which are dangerous levels. With a wind chill in the -40s, exposed skin can freeze in 5 to 10 minutes.
A quick note on how to interpret wind chill: Keep in mind, wind chill is very localized, and is felt only on exposed human skin. On a cold day, minor variations in the wind speed and direction could have a great impact on wind chill. The wind chill at your home may be completely different from the wind chill a mile down the grid road. Or even within a few blocks in the city. For example, Winnipeggers know all too well that the wind chill at Portage and Main will be much higher than at Portage and Donald, just a few blocks away. Wind chill forecasts, such as on the map above, should be taken as an approximation, and not an exact forecast.
Some localized blowing snow is possible near the Manitoba Lakes due to stronger winds over the open, frozen surfaces, though widespread land based blowing snow is not expected.
Friday
Alberta
Bitterly cold weather continues to grip the eastern Canadian Prairies, while Alberta catches a modest break from the harshest Arctic air. Compared to Saskatchewan and Manitoba, Alberta will see slightly milder temperatures as Arctic high pressure remains anchored over the region.
Across western Alberta, daytime highs will rise into the -13 to -17 range, meaning block heaters will likely not be necessary there. East of Highway 2, it will be much colder, with temperatures remaining in the mid minus 20s all day.
From Coronation toward Cold Lake, and Fort McMurray, and farther north, will be very cold, with temperatures ranging from -25 to -30. In the Lloydminster area, temperatures in the late afternoon may stay in the -30 to -35 degree range.
A weak low will develop just east of the Rockies late in the day, and there may be some light snow through central and southern Alberta and the foothills Friday night. The snow will be light, but persistent as it continues to fall into Saturday morning. The Low that produces the snow will provide relief from the bitterly cold weather in southern Alberta on Saturday morning. (read below)
Saskatchewan and Manitoba
Arctic high pressure will also keep the sky clear over Saskatchewan and Manitoba, and it will be very cold. Even colder than Thursday. Without wind chill, most areas will reach highs of only -30 or colder, but when you factor in the wind, the weather again becomes even more dangerous. The map below shows early evening wind chills on Friday.
Those unable to stay inside, should consult the warning page at Environment Canada’s website before heading out. And, of course, with the clear sky, snow is not anticipated in either province.
Saturday
Alberta
As the Arctic high pressure system slowly shifts southward on Saturday, the band of light snow that developed Friday night from a foothills Low, will continue to fall through the day, especially west of highway 23. An upslope flow will enhance the snowfall over higher terrain. Current guidance suggests the foothills could get 15 cm of snow, with about 10 cm falling in Calgary and Lethbridge. East of Highway 23, snow accumulations will be much smaller, ranging from 0 to 2 cm. It will remain cold, with temperatures peaking between -90 and -15 in southern Alberta, and remaining in the -20 to -25 degree range in central and northern regions.
Saskatchewan and Manitoba
Saskatchewan and Manitoba will remain clear and dry on Saturday, and still under the influence of the Arctic high. That, of course, means it will be very cold. From Saskatoon southeast to Brandon and across to Winnipeg, afternoon temperatures without the wind chill will range from -35 to -38. In most areas, wind chills will remain near -40, though in the Brandon area, they’ll be closer to -50. This is dangerously cold. This is the third consecutive day of extreme cold in the eastern prairies. Obviously, this will put incredible stress on livestock, which will require more food to produce the energy they need to maintain a healthy core temperature.
Sunday
Alberta
The snow in southern Alberta ends on Sunday, though a Low in the Territories will send another band of snow across the forests of northern Alberta, including Wood Buffalo. Central and southern Alberta will remain sunny, and – finally – a warming trend begins. But only for central and southern regions. From Edmonton south to the US border, temperatures will rise to the -2 to -7 range – considerably warmer than the previous few days. The warming trend will be felt in the rest of Alberta, though north central and northern regions will remain seasonably cold, with highs between -10 and -20.
Saskatchewan and Manitoba
Like Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba will experience a slight warming trend, though it will remain quite cold. In Saskatchewan, high temperatures in western regions will rise to the minus teens. In eastern Saskatchewan, highs will climb to the -22 to -27 degree range, which, in some areas, is still a 10 degree improvement from the day before. Manitoba remain bitterly cold, though as many areas in the agricultural south will struggle to reach -30. It will be warmer in central and northern regions, with highs from -21 to -25. The cold weather is the only high impact story for the two provinces again, as the sky should stay sunny, with no precipitation.
COMPARE: Prairie Weather This Week – Jan 12
