Prairie Weather (Rural Roots Canada) – Warmer weather returns to Alberta and Saskatchewan! But in Manitoba, it’s a long wait.
Soil Moisture Update
Even in the middle of winter, we’re keeping tabs on soil moisture, and in some parts of the prairies, it’s looking good!

The above map, created in mid January by Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, shows above average soil moisture (green, gray, and blue) from Highway 2 in Albert to western Saskatchewan. Much of Saskatchewan and most of Manitoba’s agricultural land have average to above average levels of soil moisture. The areas shaded in yellow and orange are concerning, with below average levels of soil moisture. However, it’s January, the driest part of winter, and what happens from now to the end of March will set the stage for planting and seeding. That said, eastern Alberta and western Saskatchewan will be off to a head start.
It was mentioned here last week that La Nina was declared on January 9, and, typically, that would mean colder, snowier weather for the prairies over the next couple of months. However, that may not turn out to be. The February-March-April temperature outlook from ECCC shows temperatures near average across the prairies:

The snowy part of the La Nina forecast may play out as expected, though ECCC’s February-March-April outlook does suggest above average snowfall for southern Alberta and western Saskatchewan:

The arctic outbreak that hit the prairies on the weekend will continue for a while yet in Saskatchewan and Manitoba, but warmer weather will return early in the week for Alberta. Most of the prairies will get snow this week, but no big storms and no big accumulations are expected.
Monday
Alberta
Bitterly cold weather to start the day, with temperatures in the -30s and wind chills in the -40s east of Highway 2 and south of Edmonton. Elsewhere, morning lows will be near or in the -20s. However, this is the day of change for Alberta, as mild Pacific air begins to push in during the day. IF that warmer air remains aloft, an inversion will develop, and it will remain cold through the day, and smoggy in urban areas, particularly Calgary. However, if the Pacific flow descends the eastern slopes of the Rockies as expected, the warmth will migrate to the surface due to downslope compression, and temperatures will climb to near zero by the late afternoon, and stay relatively warm through the night. No precipitation is expected in Alberta on Monday.
Saskatchewan
It will be dry and sunny all day in Saskatchewan, with the wind shifting from the west to the south. While that may seem like a favorable wind direction, the cold air in place over Saskatchewan is heavy and dense and will be excruciatingly slow to move out. It’s like a mouse trying to push an elephant. The result: very cold weather continues across Saskatchewan, with morning lows in the -30s, and in many areas, not climbing into the -20s after lunch. Extreme cold warnings are likely again Monday. Suitable precautions required. While the day will be dry, there is a chance of some light snow developing in the arctic air, along a weak in west central Saskatchewan in the late evening. That moisture is coming from a developing low in the Northwest Territories, which will bring more snow Tuesday.
Manitoba
Heavy, dense, and cold arctic air persists in Manitoba Monday and through most of the week. Monday will be a dry day, sunny, but bitterly cold. In southern Manitoba, morning temperatures will be in the minus 30s, and warm only to the mid minus 20s in the afternoon. This very cold air continues to flow into Manitoba at the upper levels of the atmosphere along a cross polar flow originating in Siberia. The cold air, being heavy, sinks to the surface, clearing the sky, and providing the unusually cold weather.
Tuesday
Alberta
Alberta continues to warm up, with afternoon highs climbing above zero in most areas. However, a brisk northwesterly wind is expected, so it will nonetheless feel chilly. A Low moves from the Northwest Territories into northern Saskatchewan, and the circulation around the Low will bring snow to the northern half of Alberta. Wood Buffalo may see significant accumulation. Most of central Alberta should remain sunny, but in the south, a weak disturbance could produce a line of snow roughly from Coutts through Lethbridge and north to Vulcan. Light accumulations. Overnight, the snow from the northern half of Alberta will move to the southeast, and most areas east of highway 2 can expect snow late at night, potentially disrupting travel. That snow will extend across all of southern Saskatchewan.
Saskatchewan
A clipper system will move rapidly across Saskatchewan from the northwest to the southeast during the day. And, the Low will produce snow as it travels across the province. It begins at the triple boundary, where Saskatchewan , Alberta , and the Northwest Territories meet. Early in the morning, snow from that low extends southeast to the town of Hudson Bay. By noon, the low is in northern Saskatchewan, spreading snow southeast in a wide swath along the Manitoba boundary to North Dakota. And in the afternoon, the Low is near the tip of Lake Winnipegosis, and the snow stops in southern Saskatchewan, but continues to fall in the northern part of the province. As that low moves east, a westerly wind develops, and by dinner time, temperatures in most of the province will be near or just below zero.
Manitoba
Yet again, another bitterly cold day is expected across most of Manitoba. Along the Saskatchewan boundary, south of Dauphin, there may be some late day warming to about -5, but the rest of the province will be mired in Arctic air for one more day. Winnipeg and Portage should remain in the -20s all day. A Low coming in from Saskatchewan will push some snow into western Manitoba by noon, and that snow will travel into the Interlake and southern Manitoba by late afternoon. By midnight, the Low will weaken as it moves over Lake Manitoba, and snow will diminish. Warmer air will try to invade overnight, meaning temperatures will NOT drop to the -30s.
Wednesday
Alberta
The snow that developed Tuesday night east of Highway 2 continues to move slowly toward Saskatchewan. By early morning, the snow will be along the Alberta Saskatchewan boundary, wtih some terrain enhancement causing significant accumulation in the Cypress Hills. By mid afternoon, the snow’s out of Alberta and weakening in Saskatchewan. A westerly wind takes over, and along with it, some cloud for central Alberta. Temperatures west of highway 2 should reach the low single digits, but remain below zero elsewhere in Alberta with highs between -5 and -10.
Saskatchewan
Before sunrise, snow is expected across all of Saskatchewan, then it tapers off from north to south throughout the day. The clipper that brought the snow on Tuesday, will have sped off to Lake of the Woods by early Wednesday morning, and the snow will weaken as the Low pulls away. By the end of the afternoon, only southern Saskatchewan will continue to get snow, with a cloud sky remaining across the rest of the province. With the northwesterly wind, it will be cool, but not unseasonably so. Highs across the province will stay below -5.
Manitoba
The long wait continues. Arctic air remains in place over Manitoba, as temperatures east of Brandon fail to rise above -15. The mild Pacific air that has warmed Alberta and Saskatchewan through the week continues to tease Manitoba, but isn’t quite ready yet to take over. There will be periods of snow in southern Manitoba during the day, but they taper off, and by late afternoon, the snow is gone. Accumulations will be minor, and after the snow disappears, clouds will remain.
Snow Has Fallen! (Update Jan 23)
Each of the three prairie provinces has received snow in the past seven days. Not much. And there will be more over the next seven days. Not much. Snow totals across the prairies as compiled by volunteer observers in the CoCoRahs network:
Alberta:
Data: CoCoRahs
Saskatchewan:

Manitoba:

Thursday
Alberta
Chinook conditions will form in southwestern Alberta early Thursday morning, but won’t last long. By the afternoon, snow’s expected in the southern third of the province as a weak cold front pushes the chinook warmth into Montana. The front will pass through during the afternoon, and while there won’t be a lot of snow, there will be a strong north wind. The wind will cause temperatures to fall rather quickly, and will generate some blowing snow. Visibility in open areas will be reduced, especially south of the Trans Canada Highway. Because cold air is coming in aloft, the atmosphere will destabilize, and there may be some lightning associated with the passing front.
Saskatchewan
A weak trough of low pressure will generate some snow in central and northern Saskatchewan during the day Thursday. This is not a big storm, there is no source of abundant moisture, so the snowfall will be light. The snow will cross the province from northwest to southeast, and will continue into the evening, through the night, and into Friday morning.
Manitoba
Significant snowfall is not expected in Manitoba on Thursday. Most of the province should be mainly sunny to partly cloudy. However, the persistent Arctic air won’t go away. It will continue to be colder than -15, even in the warmest afternoon hours. Closer to the Saskatchewan boundary, temperatures may warm to somewhere between -10 and -15, but, at last, warmer weather may be just a day away.
Friday
Alberta
The day begins with a mainly sunny sky, except for some upslope snow in southwestern Alberta, from Lethbridge west through Fort Macleod, Pincher Creek and Crowsnest Pass. The snow will extend south to and beyond the US border. Some of the snow against east facing slopes could be heavy, and there may be disruptions to travel on highway 3. But not for long. The snow will quickly taper off, leaving a cloudy sky in the region. In the afternoon, there may be a few flurries popping up anywhere south of Highway 3 from the BC boundary to Saskatchewan. The rest of the province stays dry, with highs between -5 and 0.
Saskatchewan
The weak trough that brought snow to Saskatchewan on Thursday will continue to produce snow across the province on Friday, with 2 to 5 cm of snow expected by Friday night. Wind will crank up with gusts to 70 km per hour in the afternoon and evening, reducing visibility in blowing snow. Generally, afternoon temperatures will range from -5 to -10, but the wind will make it feel much colder.
Manitoba
Look at this!

At last, some of the mild Pacific air that has brought warm conditions to Alberta and Saskatchewan reaches Manitoba. As the map shows, highs in most of Manitoba will reach the negative single digits – considerably warmer than the past week. However, as a trough and cold front work their way into Manitoba from a Low to the north, there will be snow. Consistent snow can be expected across the entire province, from north to south.
Saturday:
Alberta
Somewhat colder weather returns to Alberta, but highs will be near the seasonal average in the south, and above average in the north. Across the extent of the province, temperatures will peak near -5. A large ridge of high pressure stretching from the Pacific east through British Columbia will generate a westerly flow across the prairies, along with dry weather. No snow, nor any disruptions to travel are expected, as Alberta will remain mainly sunny through the day.
Saskatchewan
Behind the front that caused Friday’s blustery weather, are much drier conditions, thanks to a westerly wind. The far northern regions of Saskatchewan may experience some snow, from a weak Low along the Territorial boundary, but in the southern 3/4 of Saskatchewan, no precipitation is anticipated on Saturday. Highs near -5 can be expected north of Saskatoon. South of there, it will be cooler, with highs near -10.
Manitoba
Outflow from a Low in the Pacific ocean will generate a westerly wind across Manitoba on Saturday. With Friday’s snow and cold front out of the way, the shift in the wind to the west will bring dry air into the province. No snow is expected except for the far northwestern corner of Manitoba. It will, however, be colder again. Highs in the -10 to -15 range can be expected, and so can a significant wind chill.
Sunday:
Alberta and Saskatchewan will stay dry, with plenty of sunshine and a westerly wind. Parts of Manitoba will get snow, which will fall north and east of the Lakes. From the Red River Valley west, expect dry weather, and a westerly wind, with a mainly sunny sky. It will be milder again, with highs in much of Alberta climbing above 0, and those in Saskatchewan and Manitoba remaining slightly below zero.
COMPARE: Prairie Weather This Week – Jan 13