Prairie Weather (Rural Roots Canada) – Somewhat warmer, but no drought relief this week.
It’s the familiar good news / bad news setup across the Canadian Prairies.
The good news is that the Prairies are finally breaking free from the grip of extreme cold. Recent Arctic outbreaks brought temperatures in the -30 to -40 range, with wind chills plunging into the -40s and -50s, but that bitter cold is easing. Alberta is rebounding quickly, with temperatures climbing back toward seasonal levels and above. The warm-up will be slower and more uneven in Saskatchewan and Manitoba, where lingering cold pockets will take longer to flush out.
The bad news is that dry weather continues to dominate the Prairie forecast. While temperatures are improving, meaningful snowfall remains scarce, and that is a growing concern. The region needs sustained snow events to help erase a significant precipitation deficit that has built up over the past several months.
The chart below highlights the problem clearly, showing the percentage of normal precipitation across the Prairies over the past 30 days. Much of Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba has received well below average precipitation. In short, it’s been dry. Very dry. Without a shift toward more active storm systems, moisture shortages will persist, increasing risks for soil moisture recharge, livestock water supplies, and spring agricultural conditions.
This is a situation that can only get better or worse. Due to the passage of time, there is no maintaining of the status quo.
For agricultural regions in Alberta and Saskatchewan, the weather outlook this week remains predominantly dry. No widespread or meaningful snowfall is expected, offering little help in addressing ongoing precipitation deficits and soil moisture concerns.
There is some beneficial moisture in the forecast for Manitoba, but totals across southern and agricultural regions will be limited. Most farm areas are expected to see only light snowfall, especially when compared to central and northern Manitoba, where snowfall amounts will be more substantial.
The two maps below illustrate the total snowfall expected across the Prairies through early Sunday evening, highlighting the continued north/south contrast in precipitation and reinforcing concerns about dry conditions in key Prairie agricultural zones.
The Prairies remain locked in an active Arctic pattern, with high pressure systems repeatedly sliding south out of the Arctic. These highs will bring bursts of bitter cold, followed by brief moderation, especially across Alberta as Pacific air occasionally works inland, creating a significant thaw. Snowfall will generally be light, but wind chills, livestock stress, and travel impacts will be the dominant concerns again this week.
Monday
Alberta
Milder air returns to Alberta, especially in the south. A small area near Chief mountain is likely to warm up above the melting point. While temperatures remain below freezing elsewhere in southern Alberta, it will be considerably warmer than in recent days. It will be a good day for outdoor livestock work, as highs range from -5 to -10. In central and northern regions, expect daytime temperatures between -12 and -20. And, while the pattern remains dry, there is a chance for a few flurries in a line from near Red Deer northwest to Jasper. If this develops, there won’t be much more than a dusting of snow.
Saskatchewan
It’s another old, dry day in Saskatchewan. No significant snowfall is expected in agricultural areas. However, light snow persists in the northeast from a system moving toward Manitoba. In the southern third of the province, highs will range from -11 in the southwest to -20 elsewhere. In central and northern regions, most areas will remain below -20 all day long.
Manitoba
Light snow spreads from the northwest to the southeast. Accumulations are light, 2 to 4 cm. By the end of the day, most of Manitoba will have received snow, except for the southwestern corner, which will stay dry, with a northwest wind. There is a bit of relief from the cold. In southern and central Manitoba, highs will range from -15 to -20, and will stay below -20 in northern regions. However, that relief won’t necessarily be felt, with wind chills across the province ranging from -30 to -40.
Tuesday
Alberta
A few late morning flurries can’t be ruled out in the Lloydminster area, but the rest of Alberta will be dry. In the south, mild Pacific air moves in and the sky will remain sunny. Sunshine and warm air will cause snow to melt, which could lead to icy conditions when temperatures fall again in the evening. South of the Trans Canada Highway, expect high temperatures a few degrees above or below zero. Between the Trans Canada and Yellowhead highways, highs will be in the -5 to -10 range, and closer to -15 in northern Alberta.
Saskatchewan and Manitoba
With highs near -10, southwestern Saskatchewan will be the warmest part of the two provinces on Tuesday. Arctic high pressure continues to dominate the eastern prairies. Both provinces will have a sunny day, but it will remain cold. In southern Saskatchewan and southwestern Manitoba, highs will remain near -20, and in the north, between -25 and -30. The Interlake and southeastern Manitoba will “warm” to the -14 to -19 range. Dangerous wind chills will ease.
Wednesday
A widening temperature contrast will develop across the prairies on Wednesday. Lethbridge, Alberta could get close to 10 degrees, while Winnipeg only reaches -25, as another Arctic high drives southeast, toward the eastern prairies.
Alberta
High pressure in southeastern BC, near Elkford, will create a downslope flow across the Rockies. That, and a sunny sky, will produce a very warm day in southwestern Alberta, with temperatures reaching high single digit values. The rest of the province will be sunny as well, but won’t be as strongly influenced by the mild air from the west. As far north as Edmonton, highs will range from -5 to -8, and even in far northern regions of the province it will be seasonably mild, with highs from -10 to -15.
Saskatchewan
The mild Pacific air that has warmed Alberta for the past couple of days creeps across western Saskatchewan Wednesday. Highs of -5 to -10 can be expected in the western half of the province, while the east side remains mired in cold air as another Arctic high moves in from the Territories. East of Saskatoon, for example, temperatures will only reach the -25 to -30 range, while near Swift Current, highs could make it up to -5. Clouds are likely in the warmer air on the western side, while the new Arctic high will keep the sky clear over Eastern Saskatchewan.
Manitoba
An arctic high speeds in from the Territories, keep Manitoba frigid. The high will clear the sky, and it will be sunny. However, high temperatures across Manitoba from north to south will come in near -25. There is a slight possibility of afternoon snow between Lake Winnipeg and the Ontario boundary, but because it will be so cold, the snow will be very light, and accumulations won’t be significant.
Thursday
Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba
Check out this map of afternoon temperatures on Thursday:
Again, a huge contrast in temperatures develops from west to east. It’ll be very warm in southern Alberta, and very cold in southern Manitoba., particularly near Winnipeg. Manitoba’s cold air is due to an Arctic high centered right over southern Manitoba. Alberta’s warm air is due to a westerly downslope flow coming across the Rocky Mountains. Not all chinooks produce clouds , and not all of them come with very strong wind. In this situation, we do not expect significant chinook cloud, and the strong wind will be confined to the area south of highway 3. Saskatchewan is in between, with a bit of a tug of war between the warm air to the west and the cold air to the east. There will be continued extreme wind chill hazards for Manitoba and Eastern Saskatchewan( -35 to -40). Livestock will require maximum caloric intake to maintain warmth.
Friday
Alberta
Friday is where uncertainty creeps into Alberta’s forecast. We will have an update to this forecast on Thursday, when things will become much clearer. There is a possibility the Arctic air that has maintained very cold weather in Saskatchewan and Manitoba will back into Alberta, and cause temperatures there to fall. The more likely possibility is that it will remain mild, even warm up further in Alberta, as mild Pacific air continues to flood into the region. Regardless of whether it warms up or cools down, it will stay dry. Under the cool scenario, temperatures south of Highway 3 will still climb above the melting point, with highs in the -3 to -5 range in central regions. Even at that, it won’t be anywhere close to being dangerously cold. The warmer scenario will see double digit high temperatures in southern Alberta, and as far north as Edmonton, temperatures will climb above zero. In fact, just to the northwest of Edmonton, a weak low pressure system may produce rain. East of there toward Cold Lake, we can’t rule out the possibility of freezing rain or mixed precipitation. Again, on Thursday, this will all become much clearer, and we’ll have an update posted here around noon,.
Saskatchewan
Uncertainties in the forecast are mentioned in the Alberta paragraph above, and apply to Saskatchewan as well. We are as certain as we can be that it will be a sunny day, but temperatures aren’t as easy to forecast. The entire province may remain seasonably cold. Dangerously cold weather will be gone, and temperatures would rebound to seasonal averages, with highs in the mid minus teens. There is also the possibility that warm air from the west will bring temperatures above zero, even all the way to the 5 to 7 degree range across most of southern Saskatchewan. We are now leaning toward the warmer scenario, but we will update this on Thursday, when things become a lot clearer. On Thursday, there will also be a lot more clarity around the possibility of freezing rain or mixed precipitation developing just north of Meadow Lake in the late afternoon.
Manitoba
Unlike Alberta and Saskatchewan, the Manitoba forecast comes with much greater certainty. The province will continue to be under the influence of arctic high pressure, which means it will stay clear, and it will stay cold, with highs between -10 and -15 across the province from north to south. However, wind chills will be in the -20s through much of the day.
Saturday and Sunday
You’ll notice on the maps above showing the entire week’s snowfall, that there is considerable snow expected in central and northern Manitoba. Saturday is the day that happens. A low in northern Saskatchewan will slide southeastward toward southern Manitoba, bringing considerable snowfall early Saturday morning, continuing through the day and into Sunday morning. The sky clears out Sunday afternoon. Once the rainfall leaves northern and central Saskatchewan on Saturday afternoon, the rest of the weekend will remain dry. And southern Alberta will also have a sunny, dry weekend, with some rain and snow moving into the Grande Prairie and Peace regions Sunday afternoon. There won’t be much change to the temperature pattern, as very warm weather remains through the weekend in southern Alberta, while central Alberta at Saskatchewan can expect seasonal temperatures. Manitoba will warm up a bit on Saturday with highs near -10 in the agricultural south. By Sunday, though, cold weather returns, with afternoon temperatures peaking closer to -20.
READ: David Spence: Weather Tech on the Farm
