Prairie Weather (Rural Roots Canada) – A dry beginning to the New Year on the southern Prairies.

 

 

The week, the month, the year begins with continued concern over moisture levels in the southern prairies.    January is, historically, one of the drier months of the year, and this year,  January snow is badly needed on the prairies, especially in southern Alberta and Southern Saskatchewan.   The chart below shows little to no snow on the ground in those areas.

An image from a 511Alberta highway camera confirms the dry conditions along highway 4 near Stirling, south of Lethbridge:

 

 

By contrast, a healthy snowpack has developed in and around the Peace Region of Alberta, as shown in the image below. captured near Demmit:

 

Above is not just an image of snow covered fields, it’s an image of hope for an area that has been devastated by some of the most severe drought in all of Canada.

Unfortunately, as the following two maps show, beneficial snow is not expected this week across most of the southern prairies.  The maps show total snowfall accumulation up to and including Sunday night:

 

 

 

Over the next seven days, the weather across the Canadian Prairies will be defined by a northwesterly flow that serves as a boundary between harsh Arctic air to the north and milder Pacific influences to the south. While the active pattern of the previous weeks is beginning to break down, a “train of impulses” will continue to bring frequent but weak disturbances along, and north of the Yellowhead corridor.

Monday

Alberta

A developing low pressure system in the Northwest Territories will drive a band of snow across northern Alberta, moving west to east through the morning. Accumulating snow may briefly reduce visibility on rural roads and create minor delays for livestock movement, and other farm transportation. By early afternoon, the snow shifts east into Saskatchewan.  Tbe sky will clear as drier air moves in.

Across central and southern Alberta, conditions remain dry and mainly sunny, as high pressure builds into east central Alberta during the afternoon. This will provide a short window of favourable weather for outdoor work.

A westerly wind in southern Alberta, particularly south of Highway 3, will help push daytime temperatures to near 0 or slightly above, offering improved comfort for both people and animals. However, much colder conditions persist elsewhere, with highs ranging from -15 to -20 across much of the province.

Saskatchewan

Light snow will move across central and northern Saskatchewan on Monday, creating periodically reduced visibility on rural roads and highways. There is also a risk of freezing rain near Moosomin around midday, which could make travel hazardous along the Trans-Canada Highway and nearby secondary roads, potentially affecting grain hauling, livestock transport, and input deliveries.

As high pressure builds into the province during the afternoon, the sky will gradually clear, and any lingering freezing rain and snow shift east into Manitoba by evening. Improving conditions later in the day will benefit afternoon and evening farm operations, particularly in western and central regions.

A warm westerly wind across southern Saskatchewan will push temperatures close to the freezing mark near the U.S. border, easing cold stress for livestock and improving working conditions. However, north of Highway 13, much colder air remains in place, with daytime highs between -15 and -20. Temperatures will be even colder in the boreal forest, with high wind chill.

Manitoba

Relatively mild winter weather is expected across the Interlake and southern Manitoba on Monday, with afternoon temperatures climbing above -10.  While this is favourable for livestock care, and outdoor farm work, the milder air will also introduce increased weather-related risk.

A southeasterly flow drawing moisture northward from a U.S. weather system will create a widespread risk of freezing rain across southern Manitoba throughout the day. The freezing rain threat extends to all regions south of the lakes, including the Red River Valley, and may occur at any time, creating slippery conditions on rural roads, farmyards, and feedlots. Travel should be undertaken with extreme care. Ice buildup could also affect power lines, fencing, and water systems.

Farther north, temperatures will be closer to seasonal norms, ranging from -15 across central Manitoba to near -30 in the far north. In these colder regions, light snow is expected to develop during the afternoon and evening, spreading from the Interlake northward to the Nunavut boundary.

Tuesday

Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba

High pressure will dominate Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba on Tuesday, bringing mostly dry and stable weather across the Prairie Provinces.

A weak disturbance will generate light snow across the forested regions of northeastern Saskatchewan and northwestern Manitoba during the afternoon, but major agricultural areas will remain dry, allowing field access and rural travel conditions to stay generally favourable.

A westerly wind will usher in milder air across the southern Prairies. In southern and central Alberta, daytime highs will range within a few degrees of 0, reducing cold stress on livestock and easing energy demands. Southern Saskatchewan will see temperatures warming into the -1 to -7 range, while central and northern Saskatchewan remain colder, with highs staying in the negative double digits.

In Manitoba, temperatures will hold near seasonal averages, with highs between -11 and -14 in southern agricultural regions, cooling into the -20s north of Thompson.

Wednesday

Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba

Dry and relatively mild winter weather will continue across Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba, despite the presence of weak low-pressure systems developing over central and northern Saskatchewan. These systems are expected to have minimal impact on agricultural regions, allowing farm operations, and rural travel to proceed with few weather-related disruptions.

The weak lows may generate brief snow flurries near midday along the Yellowhead Highway corridor between Lloydminster and Edmonton, but snowfall amounts will be light and accumulations insignificant.

Elsewhere, you can expect a mix of sun and cloud across the Prairie Provinces, accompanied by a southwesterly wind bringing slightly milder air. Across southern and central agricultural regions, afternoon temperatures will generally range between -5 and -10, offering manageable conditions for winter livestock management.

In southern Alberta, localized warm air pockets will push temperatures above the freezing mark south of, and along an east–west line through Vulcan, raising the potential for surface melt in farmyards and feedlots. Meanwhile, the northern forested regions of all three provinces will also see some moderation, though temperatures there will remain colder, with highs in the -15 to -20 range.

Thursday

Alberta

Southern Alberta remains dry, providing favourable conditions for livestock care, grain hauling, and winter equipment maintenance. A few isolated flurries may develop late in the afternoon near Edmonton and north of Drumheller, but accumulations are expected to be minimal and unlikely to be disruptive.

Across northern Alberta, snow will move through the forested regions, driven by a low pressure system near Fort McMurray. Outside of the north,  expect a mix of sun and cloud across most of the province.

Strong winds in the southwest foothills (gusts to 70 km/h) may increase livestock stress and drifting in exposed areas.   Mild for early January. Highs 3 to 6 degrees south and central; cooler north, where temperatures between Calgary and Edmonton will peak near -5.  North of Lesser Slave lake, it will be more typical of January, with highs in the minus teens and minus 20s.

Saskatchewan

Mild and dry conditions persist across  Saskatchewan, with afternoon highs between -4 and -10, with temperatures climbing a bit closer to zero along the US border.  Snow will begin to move across Northern Saskatchewan due to a passing Low pressure system late Thursday night and early Friday morning.   The snow will miss agricultural regions.

Manitoba

Saskatchewan

Manitoba

A weak low pressure system will move across southern Manitoba during the day, producing light snowfall with minimal accumulation. Weather-related disruptions to agricultural operations are expected to be limited.

During the morning hours, light snow will be concentrated north of Dauphin along the Saskatchewan boundary, potentially creating brief reductions in visibility.  By midday, the snow will spread west to east across the province, reaching the Interlake region, while southern Manitoba’s primary agricultural areas remain largely dry.

By the afternoon, the snow shifts into southeastern Manitoba.   The Low producing the snow will move into northwestern Ontario Friday night, and the snow will intensify in the Interlake and southern Manitoba.  At this  point, there may be disruptions to travel anywhere east of Brandon.

Temperatures will remain seasonably cold, with afternoon highs near -10 across southern Manitoba, around -15 in central regions, and below -20 north of Gillam.

Saturday

Alberta

After some early morning flurries between Lloydminster and Cold Lake, all of Alberta will become mainly sunny and dry.  A southwesterly wind will develop, bringing very mild air to all of Alberta.  Temperatures will climb above zero across most of the province, with the warmest weather, south of the Trans Canada Highway, where highs in the low double digits are possible.   The lack of snow on the ground in this area allows sunlight to be absorbed by the ground, with the heat redirected into the air above.   Areas with snow on the ground will also be mild and above zero, but highs will be closer to 5 degrees.    Along the Saskatchewan boundary and in northern Alberta, highs can be expected in the -2 to -8 range.

Saskatchewan

Central and southern regions of Saskatchewan will have another dry and sunny day, as snow crosses the northern part of the province from west to east.   It’s a weather pattern that has become quite familiar over the winter.  Temperatures in the western half of Saskatchewan will rise to the -2 to -9 range.   On the eastern side, it’s much colder, particularly smith of Yorkton, where temperatures may remain near -20 throughout the day.

Manitoba

Temperatures in Manitoba on Saturday return to their long term averages. In the Red River Valley, expect highs near -10.  West of Portage La Prairie, it will be considerably cooler.  Places near Brandon and Virden will likely remain below -20 through the day.    Most of the province will be dry, but the morning will start with snow in southeastern Manitoba and the Red River Valley.   By the afternoon, the snow will have moved into northwestern Ontario, leaving southeastern Manitoba with clouds for the rest of the day.   As the map below shows, snowfall accumulations in southeastern Manitoba on Saturday will be minor.

Sunday

Alberta

Sunday will be a mild day across all three prairie provinces, but nowhere will it be warmer than southern Alberta.   Again, double digit highs are possible south of the Trans Canada Highway Sunday afternoon, with the warmest weather happening in areas not covered by snow.   Positive temperatures are likely throughout much of Alberta again.  Like Saturday,  it will be a bit colder along the Saskatchewan boundary and in northern Alberta.   Alberta will be sunny through the day.   The most significant weather hazard is likely to be ice that forms when meltwater freezes at night.

Saskatchewan

Warmer weather spreads across Saskatchewan, which will have a mainly sunny Sunday,.    Highs across the province, even in the far north, are expected to rise to the 0 to -5 range.  No signfiicant weather is expected, though there will likely be a brisk westerly wind in many regions.

Manitoba

A low presure system will move from west to east along the Manitoba-Nunavut boundary Sunday, spreading snow to the northern half of Manitoba.   The Interlake and southern Manitoba will remain dry,, with a westerly wind.   It will be warmer than average, with highs in the -5 to -10 range.   Oddly, the coldest weather in Manitoba on Sunday is expected in the southeast, from the Red River Valley to Whiteshell, including Steinbach, Ste. Anne, and Hadashville.   Temperatures there could stay near or below -10.