Prairie Weather (Rural Roots Canada) – (Including forecasts for Westerner Days, Ag in Motion, and the Manitoba Stampede)
Very warm and dry weather returns to the prairies this week, with minimal rainfall. An upper ridge of high pressure will cause temperatures to rise to the 30s across Alberta by mid-week, while Saskatchewan and Manitoba can expect to be slightly cooler, but warmer than average. No large, or synoptic scale, storms are expected, but afternoons across all three prairie provinces will feature thunderstorms. Given the heat and humidity, some of those storms could become severe from Tuesday onward, with the main threat being large hail.
The latest Canadian Drought Monitor shows the drought is pretty much over for most of the prairies, with the notable exceptions of central and northeastern Alberta. This is due to the spring rainfall.
RELATED: Hail Report: Cereal Crops Show Resilience After Early Season Storms
However, the weather since spring has been quite dry, and our out-of-drought status is barely hanging on. In Alberta, the provincial agriculture ministry says the optimal growth we’ve seen this year will not be maintained unless rain and cooler weather return soon.
That won’t happen this week.
The spring rains also filled up parched reservoirs across the prairies, but with the drier conditions this spring, particularly in Alberta, reservoir levels are beginning to fall. This graph shows the level of the Oldman Reservoir is still in the normal range, but on the very low end of normal.
So, while Alberta needs rain again, Saskatchewan and Manitoba are considerably less starved for moisture. Reports out of Manitoba show terrific soil moisture levels, and, according to the Saskatchewan crop report, earlier this month farmers were applying fungicide to ward off disease due to wet and humid weather in southeastern Saskatchewan.
This week should go something like this:
Monday:
An upper ridge of high pressure over western North America, and a surface high in Saskatchewan should provide the prairies with a sunny, stable day. There is a chance of showers or weak thundershowers along the Alberta foothills, and in western Manitoba. Temperatures will peak in the low to mid twenties in southern Manitoba and across Saskatchewan, with Alberta reaching the mid to high twenties.
Tuesday:
Northerly circulation around a surface high centred over western Manitoba, will draw cold air into that province, with most areas remaining cooler than 20 degrees. Saskatchewan should reach the mid twenties. That same high will draw warm, moist air from the southern US into the western prairies. Temperatures in most of Alberta will rise to 25 or higher, and it will be humid. Isolated thunderstorms will develop along the foothills in the afternoon and evening. Most of the storms should remain over the foothills, and some could become severe.
Wednesday:
The pattern repeats itself. Sunshine early in the day with thunderstorms developing in the afternoon over the Alberta foothills. Manitoba and Saskatchewan will stay dry. Alberta will be hotter:
Areas shaded green on the map can expect highs of 30 or higher.
Alberta will also have more storm fuel. CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) values will be high. While CAPE can’t be used to predict thunderstorms, it does give us an indication of where they are likely to occur. Here’s the CAPE map for Wednesday:
You can see a semicircle of high CAPE values through central and southern Alberta. No guarantees, but those areas are likely for thunderstorm development Wednesday. It will remain quiet in southern Saskatchewan and most of Manitoba.
Thursday:
Thursday, the storm holiday for Saskatchewan and Manitoba could end, with CAPE values rising, and putting all three provinces at risk for afternoon thunderstorms:
Highs in Alberta and Saskatchewan could reach the mid 30s on Thursday, and 25-30 in Manitoba. It is extraordinarily hard to forecast Thursday’s highs with any kind of accuracy, as those areas that do get thunderstorms could cool considerably.
Friday:
Friday’s another similar day with highs potentially reaching 30 across all three provinces with thunderstorms popping in the afternoon.
Saturday and Sunday:
There will be a bit of a change in the weather pattern, with a low forming in northern Alberta early Saturday, and crossing into northern Manitoba by the end of the day Sunday. This system will produce weekend rain in the Boreal forest, while the agricultural south remains dry.
Three major events are scheduled for this week across the prairies, and it will be hot and dry for each:
Event Forecasts:
Westerner Days – Red Deer AB, July 17-21
Wednesday, July 17
Sunny with a few evening clouds, SE wind gusting to 35 km/h, high 30
Thursday, July 18
Sunny during the day, partly cloudy in the evening, SE wind 20 gusting to 30 km/h, high 31
Friday, July 19
Sunny during the day, evening thunderstorms, SE wind gusting to 30 km/h, high 33
Saturday, July 20
Sunny, SE wind gusting to 40 km/h, high 33
Sunday, July 21
Sunny, light wind, high 34
Ag in Motion – Langham, SK, July 16-18
Tuesday, July 16
Sunny, a few evening clouds, light wind, high 25
Wednesday, July 17
A few morning clouds, otherwise sunny, wind SE 20, high 28
Thursday, July 18
Bright sunshine, light wind, high 29
Manitoba Stampede – Morris, MB, July 19-21
Friday, July 19
Sunny with a few afternoon clouds, light wind, high 29
Saturday, July 20
A few morning clouds, then sunny, light wind, high 30
Sunday, July 21
Sunny, light wind, high 31
COMPARE TO LAST WEEK:Prairie Weather This Week – July 8
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