Prairie Weather (Rural Roots Canada) – Warm weather as astronomical spring begins this week. After spring begins…..winter weather returns!
A big shift to warmer weather happens this week across Western Canada. Monday will be a cool day, but the shift happens Tuesday, when temperatures rise above average, especially in southern Alberta and southern Saskatchewan. From then on, the warm weather remains, and temperatures continue to climb. The map below is the temperature anomaly map for midday Friday. It shows the difference between the forecast temperature and the average temperate. So, for example, the number 21 means 21 degrees above average, not just 21 degrees. This is a very useful chart for determining temperature trends, and this week, the trend is up.
Now that we’re in the most crucial season for precipitation, there will be some opportunities for precipitation this week, especially between Highways 1 and 16, and despite the warmer weather, much of it will fall in the form of snow on Saturday and Sunday, after the warm spell ends. Keep in mind, snowfall forecasts this far in advance more often than not need to be adjusted as time passes, which is why we provide mid-week updates on Thursdays at Rural Roots Canada. The chart below shows expected precipitation accumulation up to the evening of Sunday, March 22:
The snow above may help with what is still a crucial soil moisture deficit in Alberta and Saskatchewan, though much of it will evaporate. The map below shows the soil moisture situation across the prairies. The brown and brownish shades indicate where soil is extremely dry, in some cases, only 30 percent of average:
Monday
Peace Region
A low-pressure system will cross the Peace region during the day, bringing light snow to the area, intensifying during the afternoon. The snow will continue in the evening, and 5 to 10 cm accumulation can be expected. A reverse temperature trend is likely, with temperatures rising to -5 overnight and into Tuesday morning. Agricultural producers in the North and South Peace should prepare for drifting and reduced visibility by evening. The snow event will impact road access to fields and livestock operations.
Alberta
There will be a sharp split in weather conditions between northern and southern Alberta. A low passing through the Slave Lake region will provide snow to northern Alberta, and along a warm front arcing southeast into Saskatchewan. Accumulations will be quite light – anywhere from 1 to 4 cm. On the southern end of the snow band, rain or freezing rain will be possible in the evening from Athabasca east to Cold Lake, including Bonnyville. South of the Yellowhead, temperatures will rise above the melting point, but the north stays frozen, with highs ranging from -2 to -8. In southern Alberta, the picture is dramatically warmer: Calgary sees a mix of sun and cloud with a high of 12, and areas like Hanna–Coronation–Oyen reach 2. The Lethbridge–Taber–Milk River corridor reaches 13.
Saskatchewan
Clouds and snow will develop along a warm front emanating from a northern Alberta low. The snow will begin in the early afternoon, intensifying in northern Saskatchewan by evening. From Saskatoon south, it should stay dry until the late evening-overnight period, when snow and freezing rain will be possible from Regina east to the Manitoba boundary. The overnight snow threat east of Regina is the key agricultural watch point, particularly for any early field prep that may have begun in the southeast.
Manitoba
Arctic high pressure persists over Manitoba for one final day Monday, leaving the province bathed in sunshine but shivering in cold weather. High temperatures will be in the -11 to -17 degree range across most of the province, putting some stress on calving operations.
Tuesday
Peace Region
Tuesday is the stormiest day of the week for the Peace region in BC and Alberta. Periods of snow are forecast throughout the day, with some sunny breaks in the afternoon. With enough sunshine and a westerly flow, the high could reach 6, a notable warm-up from the overnight cold. This will be followed by rain showers or flurries overnight with a low near −4°C. The combination of near-freezing temperatures and active precipitation creates hazardous road conditions and the potential for ice on farm laneways and livestock watering areas.
Alberta
The warm-up accelerates dramatically. Edmonton could reach 15 on Tuesday under sunny skies, well above the normal high of approximately −2. Calgary is forecast to reach 17. Southern communities, including Medicine Hat area posts near 17, and the Lethbridge corridor pushes toward 18. Northern Alberta also moderates into positive territory with highs near 4°C. Tuesday night, in a line from Jasper through Edmonton to Lloydminster, there is a chance of rain or freezing rain with a low near 0. This means rain on frozen ground, so producers should monitor for ice sheeting by Wednesday morning.
Saskatchewan
Mild Pacific air pushes into Saskatchewan, creating one of the sharpest temperature swings of the week, from very cold weather the previous night to very warm weather during the day Tuesday. The weather in Saskatchewan will again be split roughly along the Yellowhead highway on Tuesday, with areas to the north receiving snow, thanks to a surface low just north of Saskatoon. In the south, with sunshine and a westerly wind, temperatures will rise to impressive highs between 12 and 16 degrees. To the north, in the snow, temperatures will be near zero, which leads to a good chance of heavy moisture-laden snow.
Manitoba
Tuesday brings snow to almost all of Manitoba, ahead of an approaching Saskatchewan low. A long warm front from that low will produce snow throughout Manitoba, and as far south as Des Moines, Iowa. Look for 7-10 cm of snow across most of the province on Tuesday, with up to 15 centimetres in northwestern Manitoba. High temperatures in southern Manitoba will range from -8 to -10. Manitoba clearly lags behind the warm-up that is sweeping Alberta and Saskatchewan.
Wednesday
Peace Region
Wednesday delivers more periods of snow, more so on the Alberta side, including Grande Prairie and Peace River, with a high around -5 and further snow overnight, dropping to −9. Up to 5 cm of snow could fall in the area Wednesday. This is the third consecutive day of active snow events in the Peace Country, and total accumulations through Tuesday night and Wednesday could be significant. Producers should monitor road conditions and prepare for additional disruptions to transportation. The snow will begin to pull off to the east in the afternoon, and the sky will clear out.
Alberta
It will be another snowy day in the north, while the south remains warm and dry due to downsloping wind off the Rockies. Temperatures will rise to the high teens across southern Alberta. Rain showers become possible across central Alberta in the afternoon as a low-pressure system crosses into the region from BC. Producers should watch for wet-field conditions developing. The Low will track north of the Yellowhead highway. As the map below shows, the warm weather extends well to the north of Edmonton. The map displays expected temperatures at 7:00 pm:
Saskatchewan
During the day, a band of snow will stretch from west to east across central Saskatchewan. It will produce 4-6 cm of snow along a narrow band just north of the Yellowhead highway. With warmer afternoon weather, rain showers develop across southern Saskatchewan, as snow moves into the northwestern part of the province due to an advancing low from Alberta. Highs between 12 and 18 can be expected south of the Trans Canada Highway. The less snow there is on the ground, the higher the afternoon temperature. Temperatures will drop off sharply to the north. North of Saskatoon, it will likely remain colder than zero.
Manitoba
Most of Manitoba will have a cloudy day. And some areas in the southern part of the province will get snow. A band of snow will swoop southward from the Lakes in the late afternoon and evening, affecting all of southern Manitoba, except perhaps from the southwest, which could remain dry with temperatures near or above zero. The afternoon snow, though, will help hold temperatures to below the melting point elsewhere in southern Manitoba and the Interlake. In most areas where it snows, expect 4 to 5 cm.
Thursday
Peace Region
Thursday brings more periods of snow to the Peace region, with a high in the 2 to 4 degree range, and a clear overnight bringing lows to −8. The week’s persistent snow pattern in the Peace is notable from an agricultural perspective – snowpack will be replenishing, which is beneficial for subsoil moisture heading into the growing season, though the ongoing storm activity delays any early field preparation work. The snow is due to another Alberta clipper east of Grande Prairie. In the warm sector of that storm, there may be some rain showers between Jasper and Grande Prairie.
Alberta
In the morning, a fast-moving low approaches from northern BC, spreading snow to the Peace region, then across northern Alberta by the afternoon. 5 to 10 cm of snow can be expected, with the highest amounts in the boreal forest. Central and southern Alberta stay dry with variable amounts of cloud. The warm weather continues, with highs possibly reaching the low 20s in southern Alberta and the low double digits in central Alberta. In fact, double-digit warmth could extend as far north as Fox Creek. And if that’s the case, that region can expect a bit of afternoon rain. The warm stretch puts central Alberta at a significant risk of rapid snowmelt, which has implications for surface moisture conditions and field access heading into the weekend.
Saskatchewan
For much of Saskatchewan, this could be the warmest day of the week. Regina, Moose Jaw, Kindersley, and Swift Current all have a good shot at reaching or exceeding 20 degrees. With three consecutive days of above-zero highs in the forecast, spring melt is underway in southern Saskatchewan. Saturated or thawing soils will not be accessible for fieldwork yet, but the snowpack will be actively declining. While most of the province will be dry through the day, there is a chance of early morning freezing rain near and east of Saskatoon toward the Manitoba boundary. And, in the late afternoon, more snow will fall in the northern forests. Snow depth in the forest is expected to range from 70 to 85 cm by Thursday. By contrast, the ground south of the Yellowhead highway is largely free of snow.
Manitoba
Finally….Manitoba warms up! Temperatures across the south and northwest toward Flin Flon will rise above the melting point. Highs will range from 1 to 5 degrees. These areas will be dry. Meantime, in northern Manitoba, it’s a different story. It will be a snowy day north of the lakes, with highs from -2 to -6.
Friday
Peace Region
Friday brings sunshine to the Peace Region, with temperatures climbing above zero into the low single digits. It’s a welcome break after a week dominated by snow. The vernal equinox arrives at 7:46 am Pacific time, 8:46 am Mountain time, marking the beginning of astronomical spring. In the Peace Country, the combination of the equinox and the first sunny day of the week will accelerate snowmelt on exposed south-facing slopes and dark-coloured surfaces. The sun is the result of Arctic high pressure. But the Peace region is on the warm side of the high, which will bring cooler weather to the northern portions of the eastern prairies.
Alberta
South of Highway 3, there will be one more chance on Friday to achieve highs of 20 or higher. However, the rest of the province will cool down, as the weather pattern begins a chance that will return more typical March conditions after a warm week. Pressure will drop in the lee of the southwestern Rocky Mountains, and rain will develop along the mountain range from Banff south to Waterton. Snow is expected in Jasper. Some of the foothills rain may peel off the higher terrain and produce showers in or just south of the Calgary area, east toward Oyen. This could lead to significant snow in southern Alberta on the weekend (read below).
Saskatchewan
With the arrival of astronomical spring, it will remain warm in southern Saskatchewan. South of the Trans Canada Highway, temperatures will again climb to the high teens, even close to 20 degrees. Highs in the single digits can be expected in the rest of southern and central Saskatchewan. North of Prince Alberta, it will remain at or below freezing all day. And yes, there will be snow again in the northern forests. Accumulations will be significant – in the range of 8 to 12 cm.
Manitoba
Some early morning rain can be expected over the southern basin of Lake Winnipeg. To the north, it will be yet another snowy day in central and Northern Manitoba, but in the south, drier weather again prevails over agricultural territory. The south can expect a mix of sun and cloud, with highs from 8 to 12 degrees. The mild weather extends as far north as Thompson. Beyond there, temperatures will remain below zero.
Saturday and Sunday
A flip in the weather pattern means the northern prairie snow ends on the weekend, and the sun comes out. And in the south, the dry weather ends, as snow develops across the southern prairies, generated by a low crossing northern Montana. By Sunday, the snow pulls out of southern Alberta, as it intensifies in southern Saskatchewan and southern Manitoba. Southern Alberta can expect up to 20 cm of snow on the weekend, with closer to 40 cm expected in southern Saskatchewan and southern Manitoba. The weekend is still quite some time away, and the forecast will be refined repeatedly between now and then, so these snowfall estimates come with low confidence. We’ll have a more updated outlook on our update on Thursday, posted here at Rural Roots Canada.
