Prairie Weather (Rural Roots Canada) – Now that it’s both astronomical AND meteorological spring, we get more winter weather!
For the many cow-calf operations across the Prairies and Peace Region that are in the thick of their March calving season, this week’s weather pattern presents a range of challenges. The week opens with a brief window of workable conditions, but the mid-week arrival of a significant Pacific system, bringing snow, a rain-snow mix, and a sharp cold snap behind it, means producers cannot afford to let their guard down. March weather on the Prairies is well known for being highly variable, and that creates real stress for newborns, making this week a textbook example of what early spring calving operations are up against.
Monday
Peace Region
A low-pressure system near Prince George will push snowfall toward the BC Peace region in the early morning. By midday, the snow will have crossed into the Alberta Peace Region, spreading across northern Alberta by the afternoon. Snowfall totals will be moderate, with 4 to 7 cm expected across northern Alberta by midnight Tuesday morning. Afternoon highs in the Peace should come in close to -6 or -7. There will be a southerly wind, but it should not be strong enough to affect transportation or produce significant wind chills.
Alberta
Monday brings a brief window of quieter weather to much of Alberta as the weak frontal system that tracked through the Peace Region and northern Alberta over the weekend moves off to the east. Before sunrise, the remnants of the front will produce some light to moderate snow in a west-east line from Nordegg through Rocky Mountain House, Red Deer, and east to Stettler. The front will dissipate, and by early morning, just a few flurries will continue to fall in the foothills west of Red Deer. By afternoon, the sky across most of Alberta will clear. Afternoon highs south of Edmonton will reach positive values, with double digits expected along Highway 3 and south. Producers across the province should make the most of Monday’s relatively settled conditions, as a more significant Pacific system is on the way.
Saskatchewan
A low-pressure system continues to move quickly across northern Saskatchewan, producing snowfall across the northern third and eastern half of the province in the early morning. The low moves eastward into Manitoba, and Arctic high pressure begins to build into the region. By the afternoon, the province will be under a partly cloudy sky, and temperatures will climb above zero south of the Trans Canada Highway, remaining just below zero to the north. In the northern forests, it will be quite cold, with highs ranging from -19 to -26. The combination of clearing skies and building high pressure will make for good travel conditions.
Manitoba
In southern Manitoba on Monday, snow or rain is possible as the moisture-laden system that tracked through the Prairies Sunday night into Monday makes its final push through the province. Areas that do get snow will see accumulations of only 1-5 cm. Skies should begin to clear through the afternoon and evening as the system moves east and high pressure takes over. Temperatures across southern agricultural regions will peak in the -2 to -4 degree range. Overnight lows will drop back to around -12 behind the clearing sky. It will be much colder in the north, with highs in the -20s and -30s. Producers in Manitoba can anticipate improving conditions through Tuesday following this system’s departure.
Tuesday
Peace Region
Snow! By mid-morning, snow will spread into the Peace region, with the potential for strong winds to cause visibility and travel issues. The snow will intensify and continue into Wednesday morning. Over higher terrain, 10-15 cm of snow may fall by the end of the afternoon. The reason for this deterioration is a large and strengthening Pacific low-pressure system tracking inland from the coast. The system will bring significant snowfall to central and northern Alberta, with the BC coastal ranges bearing the brunt of the heaviest precipitation, including snow in the coastal mountains and on the peaks of Vancouver Island. Confidence in the overall scenario is medium, with the primary uncertainty being the exact track and depth of the system, and therefore, how much precipitation falls where.
Alberta
Tuesday is a day to watch closely across central Alberta. Edmonton is forecast to see periods of snow with a high near -8, and the snow will continue into the evening and overnight, marking a significant cooldown from Monday. Calgary drops to a high of only 0 with a chance of flurries. The main area of snow will be to the north of Calgary, with 2 to 10 cm of snow falling across the central part of the province. This is from the leading edge of a moisture-laden Pacific system coming in from the west. There is considerable uncertainty, but it appears we will stay dry south of the Trans Canada Highway, where temperatures will climb to highs between 3 and 6 degrees.
Saskatchewan
A weak disturbance will provide some snow to areas north of Saskatoon. The snow will weaken, as the system, an inverted trough, will be flattened by high pressure, and temperatures will be cool but manageable. South of the Trans Canada Highway, temperatures will rise above the melting point, but in the rest of the province, it will get colder as you go north. Regina could reach -2, while Saskatoon peaks at -4. Further north, the drop-off in temperatures will be steeper, with highs stuck in the negative double digits. But it will become dry, so this is a good window for any fieldwork or travel that needs to get done before the next system arrives mid-week.
Manitoba
Arctic high pressure continues to consolidate over the region, which means, for the most part, it will be sunny and cold. A band of snow coming out of central Saskatchewan will cross over the lakes in the afternoon, but it will be mainly sunny and dry both to the north and south. Significant precipitation is not expected over agricultural territory. It will stay cold, with highs in southern Manitoba ranging from -5 to -10, and north of the lakes, highs will remain in the -20s. Conditions are dry and relatively calm, making for reasonable travel and fieldwork across Manitoba ahead of what is developing to the west.
Wednesday
Peace Region
A significant snow event could bring up to 20 cm of snow to the Peace Region on Wednesday. Snow that began falling on Tuesday will continue all day Wednesday. And while 20 cm is an estimate, there is some uncertainty, and actual amounts may be a bit more or a bit less, depending on location. Exact totals aside, there will be significant snow in the area. There will also be a strong north wind, which could reduce visibility and produce wind chills close to -20. Without the wind, temperatures will peak between -11 and -13. It’s a cold, wintry day.
Alberta
Wednesday is when the main event arrives for Alberta. The Pacific low that has been developing and strengthening since Tuesday pushes inland, bringing snow to central and northern Alberta.
As the map below shows, parts of central Alberta can expect up to 20 cm of snow by early evening:
Temperatures in the area of snow will peak between -8 and -10. From the Trans Canada Highway south, temperatures will climb above the melting point, with highs of 10-13 in the Lethbridge, Milk River, and Medicine Hat areas.
Saskatchewan and Manitoba
There will be snow on Wednesday in central Saskatchewan and southern Manitoba as well:
As the map above shows, snow may impact travel on the Yellowhead Highway on Wednesday, with some areas getting about 15 cm of snow, and visibility may be reduced by a strong northerly wind. Those with travel plans for Wednesday will want to reconsider. The map above shows only snow. In southern Saskatchewan, it will be warm enough to support a rain-snow mix or a transition to snow as the system moves through. Temperatures along the Saskatchewan- US border will climb to double digits as the rest of the province experiences snow and below-average highs ranging from -8 to -10. In Manitoba, there is a chance of temperatures climbing above the melting point in the Red River Valley south of Winnipeg, but otherwise the province will experience another subfreezing day. The system that developed over the Rockies and moved eastward will impact Manitoba through Wednesday night. Producers across Manitoba should be prepared for winter driving conditions and should ensure livestock have adequate shelter and feed ahead of the cold snap that follows.
Thursday
Peace Region
The northern Peace Region can expect a clearing sky and a sunny afternoon. In the south Peace, Grande Prairie can expect more flurries, as the clearing slowly progresses from north to south. The precipitation should be wrapping up by Thursday afternoon, and attention shifts to the return of colder weather. Highs in the Peace will climb only to -7 to -9, and perhaps only -11 for Grande Prairie.
Alberta
Across southern Alberta and the central foothills, snow is expected to fall in the early morning, tapering off as Arctic high pressure bears down from the north, clearing the sky. By the late afternoon, most of the province will be under a sunny sky. However, with the arctic air, it will be noticeably colder — no more double-digit highs near the US border. South of Highway 3, highs will be close to zero and remain below the freezing point in the rest of southern and central Alberta. Highs from -10 to -12 can be expected in the northern forests, including Wood Buffalo.
Saskatchewan
Arctic high pressure begins to reassert itself from the northwest. Blowing snow may be a concern on Thursday if winds pick up with fresh snow on the ground. The Arctic high is bringing colder weather back to the province on Thursday, with all regions expecting highs to remain below the freezing point. In the central and southern parts of the province, highs will range from -3 to -9, and in the north, highs of -10 to -15 can be expected in the forests. In southern regions, though the air temperature will remain below freezing, the power of the sun will enable the melting of the snow that fell earlier in the week.
Manitoba
A sharp temperature drop is expected in Manitoba on Thursday, as Arctic high pressure builds across the prairies. This could be the coldest day of the outlook period for Manitoba. Livestock and equipment checks will be important heading into Thursday night. Temperatures will remain near -10 throughout the day across southern Manitoba. The northern part of the province will reach -15. For perspective, the average high in Winnipeg at this time of year is +2.
Friday
Peace Region
A weak low will develop in west central Alberta on Friday, delivering some afternoon snow to the Peace region. The low will be very weak. By the end of the afternoon, the snow and the Low will have moved away, and will be followed by a clearing sky. It will remain cold, with highs from -7 to -11. While there is a lot of uncertainty, it appears snow amounts will be minimal…perhaps as little as a trace.
Alberta
As a central Alberta low delivers light snow to the Peace region Friday, the rest of the province will be dry through the day. In the evening, as the Low heads into Saskatchewan, it will drag the snow down from the Peace to central Alberta. Jasper, Edson, Edmonton, Vegreville, and Bonnyville could see some light snow near sunset. Amounts will be minimal. Highs in that area are expected to range from -5 to -10. There will be little difference in temperature moving south, with highs expected to stay below zero across the province, except perhaps along Highway 3, where it could warm up to 2 degrees between Fort MacLeod and Medicine Hat.
Saskatchewan and Manitoba
With Arctic high pressure in place, both Saskatchewan and Manitoba will be clear and cold. Highs will only be near -15 in the northern half of the two provinces. In the southern agricultural regions, the sun will melt some snow, though the air temperature will remain below 0, ranging from -3 to -9. There is a slight chance for light snow in east central Saskatchewan in the afternoon, but uncertainty is high. We’ll have a better look at it with our midweek update here on Thursday.
Saturday and Sunday
All three prairie provinces will have a sunny weekend, and a westerly flow brings the return of warmer air to southern regions. Temperatures will climb above the melting point in the southern parts of all three provinces, with highs ranging from 2 to 6 degrees. The Estevan area has a chance at reaching a double-digit high. North of the Yellowhead on Saturday, temperatures will stay below the freezing point. Sunday is when it really warms up, with highs ranging from 13 to 17 degrees across southern Alberta and southern Saskatchewan. It will be a bit cooler in southern Manitoba, with highs ranging from -1 to +7. If there is any snow left on the ground in the southern prairies, it will melt away this weekend.
COMPARE: Prairie Weather this Week – March 16
