Prairie Weather This Week – Midweek Update Aug 14 |

Prairie Weather (Rural Roots Canada) – updated Canadian Drought Monitor, and the weekend outlook

Drought Monitor

Drought conditions have eased in central Alberta and central Saskatchewan, but overall, 81 percent of agricultural land on the prairies is either in drought or abnormally dry. The analysis may be disappointing, but not unexpected, as heavier rainfall impacted only a small portion of the prairies in July.

Courtesy: Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada

In July, drought persisted across much of the Prairies, especially in the Peace River region, northern Alberta, western and north-central Saskatchewan, and central to northern Manitoba. Precipitation was highly variable—southern Alberta and parts of southwestern Saskatchewan received over 150% of normal rainfall, improving conditions and easing drought in some areas, while northern regions remained dry. Some north-central locations, such as La Ronge, North Battleford, Prince Albert, and The Pas received less than 25% of normal precipitation.

Cooler-than-normal temperatures slowed evaporation and limited further drought impacts. Alberta’s north and Peace Region saw worsening drought, with new Extreme Drought areas, As mentioned earlier here, multiple agricultural disaster declarations have been made by Alberta counties and municipalities due to poor crops, pastures, and feed shortages. Saskatchewan’s southwest improved slightly, but central and northern regions worsened. Manitoba’s drought intensified, especially in the Interlake and Parkland regions, with poor forage, stunted crops, low dugout levels, and degraded water quality prompting disaster declarations.

By month’s end, 88% of the Prairie Region. and 81% of its agricultural land, was Abnormally Dry or in Moderate to Extreme Drought.

The Weekend

Going into the weekend, there will be showers across much of the prairies, and while localized rainfall may be significant, there are no widespread storms to soak those areas mired in drought.

Thursday

Alberta

As an upper level low crosses Alberta, rain bands will continue to produce precipitation in central and northern regions Some areas could receive 10-20 mm of rain, though the areas of rain will be limited to northeastern Alberta, from Cold Lake to Fort McMurray. In the southern part of the province, there will be a mix of sun and cloud, with a slight possibility of late day showers, which, if they occur, will provide minimal rainfall. North of the Trans Canada Highway, daytime highs Thursday will be cool, in the range of 15 to 20 degrees. South of Highway 1, expect highs in the low to mid 20s.

Saskatchewan

There will be widespread showers and thundershowers across Saskatchewan on Thursday, due to a strong low in the northern part of the province, which moves into Manitoba by the end of the day. . And while locally heavy rain may be of benefit to dryland crops, there could also be some temporary flooding, particularly in areas where the soil is soaked from previous rain. All that said, the heaviest rain will be near the centre of the low, in the forests of northern Saskatchewan. 40-50 mm of rain could fall there. In that heavier rain, temperatures may only reach 10 degrees. In the south, expect highs in the high teens to low 20s.

Manitoba

A sharp cold front from a strong Low in northern Saskatchewan will drag its way across Manitoba through the day and into the evening. By midday, the front will extend from Morden to the Interlake, and by late afternoon it will go through Winnipeg. Along the front there will be showers and thunderstorms, starting in western and central areas, then moving east into the evening. There may be severe storms along the front, especially in the evening when the front is east of the Red River Valley and closer to the Ontario boundary. Severe storms could form rapidly in this area, with hail up to 6 cm, 120 km/h wind, and a chance for a tornado. Ahead of the cold front, afternoon highs will reach the mid to high 20s.

Friday

Alberta

The upper level low departs, and a broad surface ridge of high pressure forms over Alberta, and the circulation around the high may lead to some showers in central and southeastern Alberta, drawing moisture in from the US. Most of the province will be mainly cloudy with some sunny breaks. . In the far south, highs will range between 25 and 30, with highs in the low to mid 20s elsewhere.

Saskatchewan

As high pressure takes over and pushes the previous day’s rain away, drier weather returns to Saskatchewan. However, some scattered showers can’t be ruled out in the soutwestern part of the province. Accumulations are not expected to be significant. With the drier weather, temperatures will return to the low to mid twenties in the south, but it will remain cooler than average in central and northern portions of Saskatchewan.

Manitoba

The Low that gave so much rain to the northern prairies during the week, moves into Hudson Bay Friday, and the rain finally begins to taper off in the far north. In southern Manitoba, expect a mainly sunny day with a westerly wind. Late in the day, there is still a chance of isolated showers and storms in the the south, particularly near the North Dakota border. Significant rainfall is not expected. Highs in the south will be near, or perhaps slightly above, 20 degrees.

Saturday

Alberta

In the agricultural south, the day will begin under a weakening ridge of high pressure, which should mean morning sun in most areas. However, as the high continues to weaken, the weather will change and shoers will become a bit more widespread. The most frequent shower activity will occur in the northern forests, but in the south, late in the day, expect increasing cloud as a disorganized U.S. low over WY/MT spreads a trough north; develop, mainly by night. Earlier in the day, it will be quite warm across the south, with highs in the 25 to 30 range, even going above 30 in southeastern Alberta. It will cool considerably once the rain arrives. Despite the weather change, rainfall amounts will be minimal.

Saskatchewan

There will be a dry and pleasant start to the day, but rain creeps into the western part of the province during the afternoon, as the trough over Alberta moves east. Scattered showers can be expected. Those showers will become more organized and intensify during the evening, forming a band of rain overnight covering most of the province. With the trough setting in over Saskatchewan Saturday night, middle-of-the-night thunderstorms can’t be ruled out. Before the arrival of the rain, it will get quite hot in southern Saskatchewan, with widespread highs of 25-30 degrees. South of the Trans Canada Highway, most areas have a decent chance at reaching 30.

Manitoba

It’ll be a terrific day for field work in Manitoba. The wind is lighter, humidity is lower, and rain is not expected as the province will be dominated by a high pressure system. Despite the abundance of sunshine, it won’t be uncomfortably hot. Highs if 15 to 20 can be expected north of the Trans Canada highway. To the south, highs could range between 20 and 25.

Sunday

Alberta

Except for the far north, where it will rain, most of Alberta can expect a dry, sunny day, with some increasing cloud in the afternoon. No significant weather is expected over agricultural regions, and it will be warm with highs in the high 20s.

Saskatchewan

A surface low starts off strong in west central Saskatchewan in the morning. It weakens fast as it moves across the province. As the animated map below shows, the precipitation will fizzle out rather fast as the day goes on. The first frame of the loop is valid at midnight Sunday morning, and the last frame is valid at midnight Monday morning:

Expect the area of rain to include thunderstorms, It will be warm in Saskatchewan Sunday, with highs in the mid 20s.

Manitoba

As shown on the map above, southern agricultural regions of Manitoba will be dry Sunday, while rain reaches the north central part of the province. Storms south of the border are anticipated to stay there, but a small shift in the upper flow could steer some of that rain into southern Manitoba. Possible, but not likely. Still unable to tap into warmer weather to the west, Manitoba’s high temperatures will be in the comfortable range of the low to mid 20s.

Event Forecast

Open Farm Days – Alberta

Open Farm days happens this weekend, August 16 and 17 across Alberta. Events will be held at farms and ranches across the province. Rural Roots Canada will attend Open Farm Days in Vermilion at Chatsworth Farm and in Lethbridge at Farming Smarter on Saturday, August 16th and, of course, we’d love to see you there. Across Alberta, the weather appears mostly favorable for this province wide open house. Here are specific forecasts for the events we’ll be attending: