Prairie Weather (Rural Roots Canada) – Rain continues to interrupt the harvest in many areas, as farmers have some catching up to do
A sharp upper ridge sits over the Prairies Thursday, but it starts breaking down Friday as a trough invades from the B.C. coast. Two low-pressure systems will take shape within that trough over the weekend: one over north-central Alberta that swings northeast into northern Saskatchewan Saturday, and a second over the northern U.S. states that tracks eastward, pulling warm air into Saskatchewan and Manitoba through the weekend before delivering showers and storms late Saturday into Sunday.
This is Thursday’s thunderstorm outlook for the prairies:
Thursday
Peace Region
Showers and isolated elevated thunderstorms fire up, and by afternoon those storms turn surface-based as they tap into ground-level moisture. The High Level area sits in the best position for organized severe weather due to a developing surface low. The latest Alberta crop report puts the Peace Region’s crop condition at 49 percent good-to-excellent, above its 37 percent five-year average, with regional yields tracking nine percent above average. A hail or wind event today could put some of that upside at risk, so if storms roll through your fields, get photos and notes down before you touch anything, in case you need them for a crop insurance claim. The hit-and-miss showers and storms will limit precipitation to under 5 mm, while stronger storms could yield localized higher amounts. High temperatures will reach the high teens or low 20s.
Alberta
Thunderstorms developing near Edson in the afternoon will track east toward Edmonton through the evening and overnight. Wind gusts of 70 to 90 km/h are the main threat, strong enough to lodge cereals that are standing in fields already stressed by August heat. Daytime highs, near or above 30, sit near warning criteria province-wide before easing overnight as the ridge shifts east. The South Region continues to lead the province at 79 percent good-to-excellent crop condition, well above its 39 percent five-year average, with the highest canola yields expected there at 48 bushels an acre. If you’re desiccating or swathing today, get it done before the wind picks up in the evening.
Saskatchewan
A mostly dry, warm day, with highs building into the mid to upper 20s, even reaching the low 30s in southwestern Saskatchewan, from Rosetown south to the US border. Late in the afternoon, the trough over Alberta starts creeping into western Saskatchewan, bringing a few convective showers that continue overnight. Harvest sits at just four per cent complete as of the most recent report, well behind the five-year average of 15 percent, with the southwest leading the province at nine per cent. If you’re in the western part of the province, particularly close to the Alberta boundary, get combines rolling early while the window is dry.
Manitoba
Sunny and warm, with highs in the low to mid-20s and little to worry about weather-wise today. Harvest reached four per cent complete for the week ending August 25, with spring wheat, barley and oats each at seven per cent off the field. Winter wheat and fall rye combining is about two-thirds done, with yields running slightly below average.
Friday
Peace Region
This is an unsettled day. The incoming B.C. trough spins up a low over north-central Alberta, and the Peace Region sits in the best position for showers and thunderstorms as cloud cover builds through the day. Given where crop condition sits behind average in the North West Region, at 35 percent good-to-excellent against a 40 percent five-year average, any additional rain is unlikely to help crops that are already lagging and could slow drying for hay operations still working through a first cut. Temperatures will only reach the mid-teens, as up to 20 mm of rain falls on the Northern Peace region. Much less rain is expected in the southern Peace, including Grande Prairie, Dawson Creek, and Fort St. John.
Alberta
Central and northern Alberta see the best chances for showers and thunderstorms today as the low in north central Alberta organizes, though scattered activity can extend farther south toward the Yellowhead Highway. Southern Alberta should stay largely dry and warm, with sunshine holding through much of the day. This isn’t expected to be a severe weather day. Keep spray and swathing plans flexible in central and northern zones, and take advantage of the drier window in the south. In the north, highs will only reach the low to mid-teens. In central regions, the low 20s, and in the south, highs of 30 or greater are possible south of the Trans Canada Highway.
Saskatchewan
Dry and warm for most of the province, with highs again in the mid to upper 20s – close to 30 west of Regina and south of the Trans Canada Highway. The overnight showers moving through western Saskatchewan should taper off, leaving a good working day across most districts. Field peas are 18 percent harvested and fall rye 44 percent province-wide.
Manitoba
Partly cloudy Friday with highs in the low 20s. Light showers moving through overnight from the Alberta trough should be minor and mostly confined to the west. The map below shows expected rainfall accumulation for Friday, and it isn’t much:
With canola only reportable as harvested in the central region so far, at five per cent, today’s dry weather supports that work continuing without interruption.
Saturday
Peace Region
The low that organized over north-central Alberta pulls northeast into the Northwest Territories Saturday, dragging a few lingering showers behind it, mainly across the north. Once it clears, winds swing northerly, and temperatures fall back into the upper teens to low 20s. It’s a cooler, breezier day than the week’s start, but workable for most fieldwork outside of any lingering shower activity.
Alberta
As the low pulls away into the Northwest Territories, expect a cooler day province-wide with highs in the upper teens to low 20s, coolest in the north and central regions. A few lingering showers are possible, especially north and east, but the afternoon should trend drier as the day goes on. This is a good day to catch up on equipment prep ahead of the return to warmer, drier weather Sunday.
Saskatchewan
Northern Saskatchewan picks up scattered showers today as the departing Alberta low develops a weaker, secondary low that moves through the central part of the province. Southern Saskatchewan stays warm ahead of the approaching system from the south, with highs in the mid to upper 20s, but watch for the first piece of that southern low arriving late in the day, bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms into the evening. Rainfall amounts look generally light, though locally heavier totals are possible under any stronger cell. If you’re mid-harvest in the southwest, plan to wrap up by late afternoon.
Manitoba
Warm through the day, with highs in the mid to upper 20s across southern and western agricultural regions, before the first piece of the southern low arrives late Saturday into Sunday morning. Expect early morning scattered showers and thunderstorms, with generally light rainfall expected but some heavier pockets possible under stronger storms. These showers should quickly move into Ontario, with the sky clearing midday.
Sunday
Peace Region
Upper-level ridging starts rebuilding across Alberta today, bringing the return of at least some sunshine after Saturday’s cooler, cloudier stretch. Temperatures should begin climbing again, though the Peace Region will likely be the last area to fully warm up as the ridge builds in from the south. Highs in the region will be in the 17 to 19 degree range. Expect a better window for fieldwork than the past two days.
Alberta
Sunshine increases through the day across most of Alberta as the upper ridge builds back in. In southeastern Alberta, though, some welcome rainfall is expected as a low-pressure system forms at the surface and meanders around the Medicine Hat region before pulling off into western Saskatchewan in the evening, where it will intensify. It will be cool in southern Alberta, with highs limited to the upper teens and low 20s. It will be warmer in central and northern regions, with highs in the low to mid-20s. Sunday may still carry some residual cloud, particularly in the north, but conditions are trending in the right direction.
Saskatchewan
The first piece of the southern low continues moving through this morning, bringing scattered showers and a chance of thunderstorms, mainly across southern Saskatchewan. Increasing cloud cover keeps temperatures cooler, especially in southwestern Saskatchewan, where highs will range from 15 to 17 degrees. From Moose Jaw to Manitoba, it will be warmer, with highs in the low to mid 20s. Behind this system, a second wave is expected to push through Monday and Tuesday, bringing another round of showers to the southeast, so don’t expect a fully clear stretch right away.
Manitoba
Cloud and showers move into western Manitoba Sunday. Temperatures are likely to reach the mid 20s, as the cooler, wetter weather won’t make significant eastward progress until Sunday night and Monday morning. This lines up with the main low tracking east through Monday and Tuesday, which will bring a second round of showers to southern Manitoba and keep the pattern unsettled into the start of next week. If you’ve got standing crop close to harvest-ready, this is a good weekend to get desiccation timed before the wetter stretch sets in.
