Prairie Weather (Rural Roots Canada) – Drought conditions ease, but only marginally.  It’s still dry.  Snowier weather is ahead!

An update to the Canadian drought monitor has been released, and conditions have improved slightly across the prairies and in the Peace region.   The map below shows drought conditions across Canada as of January 31.

While the latest drought news shows a slight step in the right direction, significant moisture is needed across the prairies from now through to the planting season.   And, as mentioned in our last update Monday,  a change in the weather pattern is expected, bringing winter back to Alberta, and snow to the prairies next week.   The question remains:  Will it be enough?   We’ll take a closer look at that in our update Monday morning.    This update is valid only until Sunday night, and no significant change is expected between now and then.

After weeks of sharp temperature contrasts across the Prairies, the weather pattern settles into something far less dramatic for the stretch from Friday the 13th through Family Day weekend.

Instead of frightful cold or disruptive storms, a mild westerly flow and broad high pressure will dominate. The result: generally quiet conditions, above average temperatures, and very limited precipitation across Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba.

While Friday the 13th carries its usual superstitions, there is nothing ominous in the forecast.   It’s a big weekend – after Friday the 13th, we’ve got Valentine’s Day Saturday.  And, Monday is Family Day.

Thursday

Alberta

A flat upper ridge continues to dominate, delivering widespread sunshine across both provinces.  Southern Alberta will see chinook cloud as a Low in the Gulf of Alaska and a high pressure system near Revelstoke combine to push mild air across the Rockies. Southern Alberta will be especially mild, with highs reaching 7 to 12 degrees, while central and northern regions see highs between 2 and 6. Overnight lows settle near −5 to 0.

Saskatchewan

Saskatchewan will have another mild, dry day. The only snow in the province will fall in the far north, aa a Low pressure system tracks west to east along the boundary with the Northwest Territories.   There will be a mild westerly wind, boosting temperatures above the melting point south of the Yellowhead highway.   To the north, it will also be warmer than average, with highs from 0 to -5.

Manitoba

It will also be a dry day across Manitoba, but unlike the neighboring provinces to the west, cloud will be more predominant, especially in the north.   In southern Manitoba, there will be a mix of sun and cloud.   Mild Pacific air makes its way into the province, and it will be relatively warm.   Afternoon temperatures across Manitoba will range from -3 in he south to -7 in the north.

Friday

Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba

Weather conditions become remarkably consistent across the Prairies. Across all three provinces, expect a mix of sun and cloud, with some snow in far northern Saskatchewan and Manitoba, thanks to a slow low creeping from west to east near the boundary with the territories.  Snow is also expected over the Alberta Rockies, and some of that may slide eastward along the Yellowhead Highway toward Seba Beach.

To the south, a strong west-to-east (zonal) flow aloft keeps conditions dry for another day.  Above average temperatures can be expected across all three provinces, as shown in the map below:

Saturday – Valentine’s Day

Alberta

Some scattered snowflurries can be expected across central Alberta Saturday, though east of the central foothills, accumulations will be insignificant.  A low in southern Alberta will generate an upslope flow that may enhance snowfall amounts in the foothills west of Calgary and Red Deer.The map below shows snowfall accumulations expected between 6 am and 6 pm:

Elsewhere in Alberta, expect a mix of sun and cloud, and another mild day.   South of the Trans Canada Highway, highs could soar to 9 or 10 degrees.   Elsewhere it won’t be quite as warm, but still mild for mid February as highs will come in either just above or just below zero.

Saskatchewan

It will be a warm Valentine’s day in Saskatchewan, as the entire province will remain under the influence of mild Pacific air.  West of Regina, highs from 5 to 7 degrees can be expected.  East of Regina, and in central and northern regions, it won’t be as warm, but still  unseasonably mild, with highs just a few degrees below the melting point.    There may be a few snow flurries in the afternoon in north central Saskatchewan, but otherwise, it will be a dry day across the province, with a mix of sun and cloud.

Manitoba

Limited snowfall means ongoing concern about soil moisture reserves heading toward spring. Snowpack remains below desirable levels in many areas.   No precipitation is expected outside of the far north on Saturday.  Most of the province will be under a mix of sun and cloud.    Temperatures will remain below 0, near -5 in most areas.   That said, in areas where the sun shines, at this time of year, temperatures don’t have to be above zero for snow to melt or evaporate.   Expect to lose at least a little bit of what little snow cover there is,  despite sub-freezing air temperatures.

Sunday

Alberta

A low in central Manitoba will drag a surface trough across central Alberta, producing scattered snow falls, mainly north and northeast of Red Deer.   Elsewhere, the sky will be mainly sunny, and with warm air continuing, most areas will have great weather for long weekend outdoor activities.  While pleasant now, the lack of meaningful snowfall does little to improve the spring moisture outlook.   South of the Trans Canada highway, expect positive highs in the single digits.   In central regions, highs will range from 0 to -5.   Colder weather returns to northern Alberta, where temperatures are likely to stay below -10.

Saskatchewan

A Low pressure system is expected to intensify over central Saskatchewan during the day, provide snow in areas north of Saskatoon.   The snow will intensify during the day, as the Low strengthens.   However, producers hoping for significant snowfall may be disappointed.   The map below shows how much snow is expected Sunday:

South of the Trans Canada highway, expect highs above zero., and to the north, even in the snowy areas, it will be rather warm, with highs from 0 to -5.   The northernmost reaches of Saskatchewan will have to endure temperatures below -15.

Manitoba

As the map above shows, snow is expected in central and northern Manitoba, as a low pressure system strengthens as it moves into central Manitoba during  the day.  Most agricultural areas,, if not all, will stay dry on Sunday, though some late afternoon rain showers can’t be ruled out from Niverville southeast through Morden and toward Boissevain.    This is because temperatures south of the Trans Canada Highway are expected to climb into the single digits above zero.   The rest of the province will also see single digit temperatures, but on the other side of the freezing point.

A quick note that Family Day may be a holiday, but we’ll have our usual Monday morning weather outlook posted here at Rural Roots Canada.