Thursday

Alberta

A low pressure system that formed Thursday morning in northwestern Alberta is tracking across the province today from the northwest to the southeast.   South of the system, it’s windy, and will remain windy all day, with above average temperatures.   Near the Low, there is snow, and 10-20 cm are possible in the northeastern corner of the province, with freezing rain on the southern fringes of the snow.   As the low goes by, it will drag a cold front into central Alberta, but you might not know it depending on temperature alone.

The front will produce a strong wind with gusts of up to 90 to 100 km/h expected in the south, south central and east central regions.      In extreme southwestern Alberta, gusts of 110 km/h are possible Thursday afternoon.    The wind will ease in the evening.  As mentioned, despite the passage of a cold front, temperatures will remain above average.

In fact, warmer than average conditions are expected to continue across the siouthern prairies over the long term.   This chart shows the next 30 days will be above average overall.   Yes, there will be some cooler days, but the long term average remains warm.

Saskatchewan

As the Alberta Low moves across Saskatchewan from the northwest to the southeast on Thuirsday, there will be some significant snow in the boreal forest, but nothing of note in agricultural regions.  There will be rain on the south end of the precipitation band, possibly affecting highway 16 from Saskatoon to Yorkton.    Southern Saskatchewan will stay dry.    As the low passes, a cold front will push across Saskatchewan from north to south in the evening.   There will be a strong wind,  and while blowing snow is possible, it’s less likely, as there is a lack of fresh, fluffy snow on the ground.

Manitoba

Central Manitoba can expect a significant snow event in the evening, as the Alberta low moves toward eastern Saskatchewan.  10-15 cm accumulations will be widespread in central Manitoba, from Flin Flon southeast to Pine Falls by early Friday morning.   As the system passes, will be windy, with gusts to 70 km/h, even in southern Manitoba.  Highs across southern Manitoba Thursday will be near zero, slightly warmer west of the Red River Valley.

Friday

As the chart below shows, after the Low and associated fronts move across Manitoba Friday,  no significant weather is expected on the prairies over the weekend.

Alberta

High pressure will build along the Alberta/British Columbia boundary during the day, and the wind will diminish.  Parts of Alberta that were warm on Thursday will be warm again on Friday, with perhaps a drop of 2 or 3 degrees.   It will still be above average, and warmer than the melting point, so the snow will continue to disappear.   This includes much of the new snow that fell with Thursday’s disturbance.    This is expected to worsen the drought, particularly in central Alberta.  No significant precipitation is expected anywhere in the province on Friday.

Saskatchewan

While Alberta remains starved for moisture, rain and snow will again fall in Saskatchewan on Friday.  Not much.   Early in the morning, light ran will fall in a line from Onion Lake to Esterhazy/   As the day goes on, and a cold front passes, the rain will turn to snow, but amounts will be light.  Temperatures across the province will peak near zero, with two exceptions.   Southwestern Saskatchewan could warm up to the 5 to 10 degree range, while the far north will remain frozen in the -15 to -20 range.  For most areas, the snow will taper off in the evening.

Manitoba

As the chart below shows,  most of the significant weather expected on the prairies Friday will happen in Manitoba:

Colder weather returns to Manitoba, with most  areas remaining well below freezing.   It will once again be a bitterly cold day in the northern third of the province, and to the south, highs of only  -10 can be expected.   A strengthening low pressure system will move into southeastern Manitoba early in the morning, bringing significant snow to the Ontario boundary region, and northwest across the lakes.   That same low will produce rain in southern Manitoba, west of Winnipeg.

The low will move rapidly into Minnesota, and the precipitation will rapidly taper off in the morning.  Expect windy conditions across southern Manitoba, with a chance of blowing snow.  A signal toward colder weather appears, as a ridge of arctic high pressure moves into Manitoba from the north.

Saturday

Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba

It will be a mainly sunny day across the southern prairies, with some cloud cover for central and northern Alberta.   No precipitation is expected, as a ridge of high pressure aloft dominates the prairies.   Northern Manitoba will stay bitterly cold, but elsewhere on the prairies it will be relatively mild.   South of Calgary, temperatures Saturday in southern Alberta could reach 15-20 degrees, with mid teen temperatures possible across the rest of the province.   That warm air will extend into southwestern Saskatchewan as well.   The rest of Saskatchewan and Manitoba will experience highs near zero.

Sunday

Alberta

Active weather returns to parts of Alberta Sunday, as a Low pressure system develops in the northeaster part of the province.  From the centre of the Low west along a cold front, rain can be expected in the morning from Fort MacKay west to Dawson Creek BC.   Later in the day, a disturbance develops near Jasper, where rain and snow can be expected, depending on elevation, in the late afternoon, heading into the evening.   In the evening, the snow will spread south along the Rockies to Banff and Kananaskis.

Agricultural regions  the south, central, and eastern portions of the province will remain dry.   The south will remain warm, with highs of 10-20 degrees, with highs between 0 and 10 elsewhere in Alberta.

Saskatchewan

A low pressure system that forms near Fort McKay, Alberta will move eastward across northern Saskatchewan during the day.   It will bring snow to the northern quarter of the province, while south of Reindeer Lake, it will remain dry.   Wind will be light, and temperatures will be mild with highs above zero.   Southwestern Saskatchewan has an opportunity to reach 10 degrees.

Manitoba

Manitoba’s agricultural lands stay dry Sunday, as snow coming into the province from a Low in Saskatchewan remains in northern regions, north of Lake Winnipeg.    Elsewhere across the province, there will be a light southerly wind.  It will warm up with highs near or above zero across the province, except for the far north, where subfreezing conditions remain.

EVENT FORECAST

Last day of AgExpo in Lethbridge:

Friday, February 28 – A few morning clouds, otherwise sunny, light wind, low 0, high 14

COMPARE – Prairie Weather This Week Feb 17