Prairie Weather (Rural Roots Canada) – An update on drought, and a forecast for some very warm prairie weather
AgExpo is happening this week in Lethbridge. Scroll down to the bottom of this post for a special forecast for the event.
But first….
As we head toward the all-important month of March, we’ll begin this update with a look at where we stand and where we’re going in terms of drought. Precipitation from March 1 going forward largely determines whether we’ll have sufficient moisture for spring seeding. March is the beginning of the wet season, so, since it’s so dry now, it’s crucial that moisture comes through in the coming weeks and months. It’s also important that the moisture is allowed to sink into the ground, rather than evaporate into the air. So, at this time of year, cloudy conditions are preferred over sunny weather. The most recent Canadian Drought Monitor shows where we currently stand:
The map above shows drought is still present in Alberta west of highway 2, and south of Edmonton, with a patch of long term drought in central Alberta between Edmonton and Calgary. Drought is present in Saskatchewan south of the Trans Canada highway, and in west central and north central portions of the province. Manitoba’s agricultural land is largely drought free, with the exception of the southwestern corner of the province.
This next map, shows the projected change in drought conditions to the end of February:
Portions of Saskatchewan south of the Trans Canada highway are expected to come out of drought in the next couple of weeks, while the situation in Alberta, particularly in the foothills, doesn’t get any better. One hopeful sign is the expectation that part of the dry zone between Edmonton and Calgary could come out of drought, but the lack of precipitation in the foothills and southwestern Alberta could lead to the expansion or worsening of drought in that area.
Again, it’s too early to panic, as the wet season is still ahead of us. However, the next few weeks will be crucial.
As for precipitation over the next few days….we can expect both rain and snow across the prairies. This first map shows where snow is expected until the evening of Sunday, March 2:
Widespread snow is expected in Manitoba and northern Saskatchewan this week. It looks like Alberta and part of Saskatchewan will miss out on the bounty of moisture this week, until you look at rainfall. The map below shows expected rainfall over the same time period:
Most of Saskatchewan will see either rain or snow this week, as will much of Alberta. Unfortunately, neither rain nor snow is expected in southwestern Alberta, where, as mentioned, drought is an increasing problem.
Monday
Alberta
A large upper ridge of high pressure will continue to bring higher than average temperatures, and a lot of sunshine to much of Alberta Monday, and for the rest of the week. Though there will be sunshine, westerly breezes, and warm weather associated with this, a few disturbances will get through from time to time. Early in the morning, expect some light rain south of Claresholm, from Highway 2 to Saskatchewan. That will move very quickly, so accumulations will be minimal. Later, overnight into Tuesday morning, rain or freezing rain may develop in the same area. Highs will range from 0-10 across the province, with a chance of highs in the low teens in Lethbridge and the immediate surrounding area.
Saskatchewan
Temperatures in the agricultural regions of Saskatchewan will reach highs of between 0 and 5. Further to the north, it won’t be quite as warm, with highs between 0 and -10. Rain is expected in southwestern Saskatchewan through the morning and early afternoon, while snow will fall in northern regions all day. Rainfall amounts in the southwest will top out at 5 mm at the most, and snowfall amounts in the north will total perhaps 2 cm.
Manitoba
The day begins with rain in the Interlake, and snow further north. A strong north wind, circulating around a pair of Low pressure systems to the east and north, will draw colder air into southern Manitoba. As the rain moves south from the Interlake, it will turn to snow. That said, a westerly wind will develop south of the Trans Canada highway, cutting off the northerly flow of arctic air, so the moisture has a chance of remaining in the form of rain in the Whiteshell.
It’s a tough call, though, as temperatures across southern Manitoba will peak only between 0 and 5, so the precipitation could go either way. Further north, winter hangs on, with below 0 highs north of the lakes. In the far north, highs remain near -20.
Tuesday
Alberta
As mentioned above, rain and freezing rain are possible in the early morning south of highway 3. That should taper off in the midday, replaced by a drying westerly wind. The rest of the province will also be under the influence of a west wind, with clouds in the far north and far south, and sunshine elsewhere. Other than the early morning rain in the southeast, Alberta will be dry and warm, with highs above the melting point everywhere except the far north. In the Lethbridge region, particularly around Picture Butte, highs could reach beyond 10.
Saskatchewan
A band of snow will cross central and north central Saskatchewan during the day, but this disturbance will again only produce light amounts. Rain is also possible Tuesday afternoon in southwestern Saskatchewan near Climax and Val Marie. That rain won’t last long, but later in the day, in north central Saskatchewan, a low pressure system will move in from Alberta, and snow will begin in the late evening, intensifying overnight. This will cover a large portion of the province north of Prince Albert.
Prince Albert also serves as the boundary between warm air to the south and colder air to the north. North of Prince Albert, highs can be expected to range from 0 to -10. South of Prince Albert, it will be milder, with highs between 5 and 10 degrees.
Manitoba
Highs of -45 to +5 can be expected Monday afternoon across Manitoba. Generally speaking, the further south you go, the warmer it will be. In the far north, again, expect temperatures to remain in the -20s. North of the Lakes, right along the boundary between the warmer and colder air, expect light snow. It will remain well to the north of agricultural areas. Most of the province will be dry, with a mix of sun and cloud.
Wednesday
Alberta
There won’t be much in the way of significant weather in Alberta on Wednesday. Across the province there will be a westerly wind, which is the result of a strong Low pressure system in the Gulf of Alaska, pushing mild Pacific air into Alberta. The wind is likely to die down in southern regions in the afternoon. It will be very warm in the south, with temperatures from Calgary to Lethbridge reaching 10 degrees or better. Highs of 5-10 are expected all the way north to Athabasca. Beyond there, highs will peak near zero up to the northern boundary.
Saskatchewan
In the southern 3/4 of the province, a westerly wind will bring in mild Pacific air, and highs can be expected to reach as high as 5-10 degrees. Further north, it will remain below freezing, with a northerly wind. In that colder area, snow is expected, with, again, lighter amounts. The snow is falling on the backside of a Low pressure system in northeastern Manitoba. As the low pulls away into Ontario, the snow in Saskatchewan will taper off.
Manitoba
A weak low pressure system right at the elbow along Manitoba’s eastern boundary will generate significant snowfall in the area, with lighter amounts heading south to Pine Falls, and northwest to Saskatchewan. The agricultural areas of southern and western Manitoba will stay dry. Southern Manitoba and the interlake can expect highs between 0 and 5, with cooler weather to the north, and in the snowy region east of Lake Winnipeg. There, highs will come in between 0 and -5.
Thursday
Alberta
A low pressure system that formed Thursday morning in northwestern Alberta is tracking across the province today from the northwest to the southeast. South of the system, it’s windy, and will remain windy all day, with above average temperatures. Near the Low, there is snow, and 10-20 cm are possible in the northeastern corner of the province, with freezing rain on the southern fringes of the snow. As the low goes by, it will drag a cold front into central Alberta, but you might not know it depending on temperature alone.
The front will produce a strong wind with gusts of up to 90 to 100 km/h expected in the south, south central and east central regions. In extreme southwestern Alberta, gusts of 110 km/h are possible Thursday afternoon. The wind will ease in the evening. As mentioned, despite the passage of a cold front, temperatures will remain above average.
In fact, warmer than average conditions are expected to continue across the siouthern prairies over the long term. This chart shows the next 30 days will be above average overall. Yes, there will be some cooler days, but the long term average remains warm.
Saskatchewan
As the Alberta Low moves across Saskatchewan from the northwest to the southeast on Thuirsday, there will be some significant snow in the boreal forest, but nothing of note in agricultural regions. There will be rain on the south end of the precipitation band, possibly affecting highway 16 from Saskatoon to Yorkton. Southern Saskatchewan will stay dry. As the low passes, a cold front will push across Saskatchewan from north to south in the evening. There will be a strong wind, and while blowing snow is possible, it’s less likely, as there is a lack of fresh, fluffy snow on the ground.
Manitoba
Central Manitoba can expect a significant snow event in the evening, as the Alberta low moves toward eastern Saskatchewan. 10-15 cm accumulations will be widespread in central Manitoba, from Flin Flon southeast to Pine Falls by early Friday morning. As the system passes, will be windy, with gusts to 70 km/h, even in southern Manitoba. Highs across southern Manitoba Thursday will be near zero, slightly warmer west of the Red River Valley.
Friday
As the chart below shows, after the Low and associated fronts move across Manitoba Friday, no significant weather is expected on the prairies over the weekend.
Alberta
High pressure will build along the Alberta/British Columbia boundary during the day, and the wind will diminish. Parts of Alberta that were warm on Thursday will be warm again on Friday, with perhaps a drop of 2 or 3 degrees. It will still be above average, and warmer than the melting point, so the snow will continue to disappear. This includes much of the new snow that fell with Thursday’s disturbance. This is expected to worsen the drought, particularly in central Alberta. No significant precipitation is expected anywhere in the province on Friday.
Saskatchewan
While Alberta remains starved for moisture, rain and snow will again fall in Saskatchewan on Friday. Not much. Early in the morning, light ran will fall in a line from Onion Lake to Esterhazy/ As the day goes on, and a cold front passes, the rain will turn to snow, but amounts will be light. Temperatures across the province will peak near zero, with two exceptions. Southwestern Saskatchewan could warm up to the 5 to 10 degree range, while the far north will remain frozen in the -15 to -20 range. For most areas, the snow will taper off in the evening.
Manitoba
As the chart below shows, most of the significant weather expected on the prairies Friday will happen in Manitoba:
Colder weather returns to Manitoba, with most areas remaining well below freezing. It will once again be a bitterly cold day in the northern third of the province, and to the south, highs of only -10 can be expected. A strengthening low pressure system will move into southeastern Manitoba early in the morning, bringing significant snow to the Ontario boundary region, and northwest across the lakes. That same low will produce rain in southern Manitoba, west of Winnipeg.
The low will move rapidly into Minnesota, and the precipitation will rapidly taper off in the morning. Expect windy conditions across southern Manitoba, with a chance of blowing snow. A signal toward colder weather appears, as a ridge of arctic high pressure moves into Manitoba from the north.
Saturday
Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba
It will be a mainly sunny day across the southern prairies, with some cloud cover for central and northern Alberta. No precipitation is expected, as a ridge of high pressure aloft dominates the prairies. Northern Manitoba will stay bitterly cold, but elsewhere on the prairies it will be relatively mild. South of Calgary, temperatures Saturday in southern Alberta could reach 15-20 degrees, with mid teen temperatures possible across the rest of the province. That warm air will extend into southwestern Saskatchewan as well. The rest of Saskatchewan and Manitoba will experience highs near zero.
Sunday
Alberta
Active weather returns to parts of Alberta Sunday, as a Low pressure system develops in the northeaster part of the province. From the centre of the Low west along a cold front, rain can be expected in the morning from Fort MacKay west to Dawson Creek BC. Later in the day, a disturbance develops near Jasper, where rain and snow can be expected, depending on elevation, in the late afternoon, heading into the evening. In the evening, the snow will spread south along the Rockies to Banff and Kananaskis.
Agricultural regions the south, central, and eastern portions of the province will remain dry. The south will remain warm, with highs of 10-20 degrees, with highs between 0 and 10 elsewhere in Alberta.
Saskatchewan
A low pressure system that forms near Fort McKay, Alberta will move eastward across northern Saskatchewan during the day. It will bring snow to the northern quarter of the province, while south of Reindeer Lake, it will remain dry. Wind will be light, and temperatures will be mild with highs above zero. Southwestern Saskatchewan has an opportunity to reach 10 degrees.
Manitoba
Manitoba’s agricultural lands stay dry Sunday, as snow coming into the province from a Low in Saskatchewan remains in northern regions, north of Lake Winnipeg. Elsewhere across the province, there will be a light southerly wind. It will warm up with highs near or above zero across the province, except for the far north, where subfreezing conditions remain.
COMPARE – Prairie Weather This Week Feb 17
