Prairie Weather (Rural Roots Canada) – Warm through the weekend. Too warm, perhaps. Dry conditions persist.
Winter weather continues to be missing in action across a large portion of the prairies going into he weekend. The period remains dominated by above-average temperatures and generally light precipitation, favouring livestock health but continuing to chip away at snowpack and soil moisture reserves. Mud, runoff, fog, and icy refreeze cycles will be the main operational challenges through the weekend, especially across Alberta and Saskatchewan.
Thursday
Alberta
An Alberta Clipper will develop over northern British Columbia and Alberta, spreading a mix of snow, rain, and freezing rain into Alberta’s northern boreal forest. Central and southern Alberta will remain largely dry, as the bulk of the moisture stays confined to Alberta’s far north.
Across the northern forests, widespread snowfall of 5 to 10 cm is expected. A persistent westerly wind will continue across the province, promoting sunny skies in central and southern Alberta.
Highs south of the Trans Canada highway will reach the mid teens, and temperatures will climb above the melting point elsewhere in the province, except for the northernmost part of the northern forests. There will be no significant precipitation for agricultural regions.
Snowpack continues to shrink rapidly, improving short-term field access but increasing mud in feedlots, yards, and along secondary roads. Livestock stress remains low, though runoff and soft footing become growing issues. The map below shows snow depth across the prairies, valid early Thursday evening. Southern and south central Alberta have little to no snow on the ground.
As mentioned, snow is rapidly disappearing in central and north=central regions, as shown in this photo from Ryley, east of Edmonton:
Saskatchewan
Snow will develop from west to east, spreading across northern and north central Saskatchewan. Accumulating snow is most likely along a province wide northwest-to-southeast corridor from Lake Athabasca to Flin Flon.
This light snowfall will improve short-term surface moisture but will do little to address long-term precipitation deficits. Agricultural areas across central and southern Saskatchewan will largely remain dry.
South of the Yellowhead Highway, highs will rise above the melting point, and perhaps even reach double digits near Val Marie. Icy mornings will lead into slushy afternoons. North of Saskatoon, expect highs near or below -5.
Manitoba
Southern Manitoba will finally see a meaningful, but brief break from winter cold, with temperatures rising above freezing across the southern half of the province. Arctic air persists farther north, keeping temperatures in the minus teens.
A clipper system tracking northwest to southeast across Manitoba is expected to produce a small amount of snow in the Flin Flon area. There will also be snow in northeastern Manitoba, well away from agricultural concerns. That snow is coming from a Hudson Bay surface low, pulling off into Ontario.
Friday
Alberta and Saskatchewan
Friday will be a mostly sunny and dry day across Alberta and Saskatchewan, with no precipitation expected in agricultural regions of either province.
With clear skies and light winds, solar heating will be efficient, especially in southern Alberta, where the lack of snow cover will allow temperatures to surge. Highs will rebound into the mid-teens south of Highway 3, affecting communities such as Lethbridge, Milk River, Taber, Bow Island, and Medicine Hat.
Overnight refreezing followed by strong daytime thaw leads to deteriorating ground conditions, especially in low-lying areas.
This unseasonable warmth will extend eastward into southern Saskatchewan, where, west of Regina, temperatures will climb above the melting point. Across central Alberta, temperatures will rise slightly above freezing, while central Saskatchewan will hover just below 0.
Fog or patchy freezing drizzle is possible in southern Saskatchewan overnight and early morning due to lingering moisture and mild air, creating slick conditions for travel and livestock movement.
Farther north, winter conditions persist, with highs in the -7 to -14 degree range across northern Alberta and northern Saskatchewan.
Manitoba
After briefly rising above freezing on Thursday, cooler weather returns to southern Manitoba on Friday. Highs will range from -13 to -20 in southern and central regions, and from -20 to -30 in the north.
There may be some light, insignificant pre-dawn snow in souheastern Manitoba, but for the rest of the day it will be dry and sunny, under a surface ridge of arctic high pressure.
Saturday
Alberta
Mild weather holds through much of the day, with another day of double digit highs south of the Trans Canada Highway. Temperatures will climb above the melting point, except for the northernmost quarter of the province. Increasing cloud cover signals a change. A Pacific system approaches late, with light precipitation developing across northern Alberta by evening. Expect a mix of rain and snow north of Grande Prairie, in the Peace River region. Southern regions remain mild but cloudier.
Saskatchewan
Very mild for early February, especially in southern areas. Snowmelt continues steadily, increasing runoff into ditches and low spots. Field conditions could very well be too soft for most operations. Snow will fall again in the northern forests, with no significant precipitation for agricultural areas. That said, patchy freezing rain can’t be ruled out for parts of central Saskatchewan, but it will not be widespread. South of the Trans Canada Highway, highs will range from 5 to 9 degrees, with highs of 0 – 5 expected in central and even north central Saskatchewan. In the northern third of the province, temperatures will remain below the freezing point.
Manitoba
After Friday’s very cold weather temperatures rebound toward seasonal values, with daytime highs between -5 and -10. North of the lakes, expect highs from -11 to -16. Light snow is expected to fall in northern Manitoba during the day, reaching the Red River Valley by late afternoon. Depending on the temperature a few hundred feet aloft, the snow may be mixed with rain. Precipitation amounts in the south will be minor. In the north, 5-10 cm of snow is possible.
Sunday
Alberta
The Pacific low moves into the province. Northern regions see snow, while central and southern areas may experience late day rain or a rain-snow mix, depending on timing. The area most likely to see this moisture, will be west of Highway 2 between Calgary and Red Deer. A cold front follows later Sunday or early Monday, bringing a return to cooler air. Before that happens, afternoon temperatures will again reach the mid teens south of the Trans Canada Highway. Positive, single digit highs are expected north of the Trans Canada Highway all the way to Fort McMurray and Grande Prairie.
Saskatchewan
Cloud increases ahead of an approaching Pacific low, with precipitation edging into western areas late in the day or overnight. The precipitation will be scattered, and likely in the form of rain. The forests of the north will likely get snow through much of the day. Elsewhere temperatures remain mild, with double digit highs south of the Trans Canada Highway, and positive afternoon temperatures as far north as La Ronge.
Manitoba
Quiet but mild conditions continue. It will be a mainly cloudy day across Manitoba, with snow affecting northern, permafrost regions. After some early morning snow showers in southern Manitoba, no significant precipitation is expected in that region for the rest of the day. It will be seasonably mild with highs between 0 and -9 all the way north to Gillam. In the snowier regions of the north, expect highs from -11 to -19.
