Prairie Weather (Rural Roots Canada) – Arctic air’s winter grip continues through Saturday. Snow returns to parts of Alberta on the weekend.
A multi-day extreme cold weather event is underway, driven entirely by Arctic high pressure. A slight warming trend is expected by the weekend. Meantime, the cold is persistent and dangerous, especially in Saskatchewan and Manitoba, where wind chills could, at times, come close to -50. For updated Environment Canada warnings, click here.
Thursday
Alberta
As Arctic high pressure strengthens over the Northwest Territories, a surge of very cold Arctic air will spill southward across the Canadian Prairies. While all three Prairie provinces will feel the chill, Alberta is expected to be the warmest of the region during this cold outbreak.
In Alberta, circulation around the Arctic high may generate areas of light snow or flurries, particularly across central and southeastern parts of the province, mainly during the afternoon hours. Snowfall amounts will remain light, with no significant accumulations expected.
Temperatures across central and southern Alberta will remain cold, with daytime highs generally ranging from -13 to -17. Farther south, from Claresholm through Lethbridge to Milk River, slightly milder conditions are expected, with highs closer to -10.
As the temperature map below illustrates, Alberta will be comparatively mild, while Saskatchewan and Manitoba endure much colder conditions, with widespread Arctic air dominating the region. The map highlights early evening temperatures, showing the sharp contrast across the Prairie provinces.
Saskatchewan and Manitoba
Check out the map above. Thursday will be a cold day in Saskatchewan and Manitoba. Now, if you dare, check out the map below, showing wind chills in the early evening:
Stay inside if you can! Wind chills in Saskatchewan and Manitoba will be in the -30s and -40s, which are dangerous levels. With a wind chill in the -40s, exposed skin can freeze in 5 to 10 minutes.
A quick note on how to interpret wind chill: Keep in mind, wind chill is very localized, and is felt only on exposed human skin. On a cold day, minor variations in the wind speed and direction could have a great impact on wind chill. The wind chill at your home may be completely different from the wind chill a mile down the grid road. Or even within a few blocks in the city. For example, Winnipeggers know all too well that the wind chill at Portage and Main will be much higher than at Portage and Donald, just a few blocks away. Wind chill forecasts, such as on the map above, should be taken as an approximation, and not an exact forecast.
Some localized blowing snow is possible near the Manitoba Lakes due to stronger winds over the open, frozen surfaces, though widespread land based blowing snow is not expected.
Friday
Alberta
Bitterly cold weather continues to grip the eastern Canadian Prairies, while Alberta catches a modest break from the harshest Arctic air. Compared to Saskatchewan and Manitoba, Alberta will see slightly milder temperatures as Arctic high pressure remains anchored over the region.
Across western Alberta, daytime highs will rise into the -13 to -17 range, meaning block heaters will likely not be necessary there. East of Highway 2, it will be much colder, with temperatures remaining in the mid minus 20s all day.
From Coronation toward Cold Lake, and Fort McMurray, and farther north, will be very cold, with temperatures ranging from -25 to -30. In the Lloydminster area, temperatures in the late afternoon may stay in the -30 to -35 degree range.
A weak low will develop just east of the Rockies late in the day, and there may be some light snow through central and southern Alberta and the foothills Friday night. The snow will be light, but persistent as it continues to fall into Saturday morning. The Low that produces the snow will provide relief from the bitterly cold weather in southern Alberta on Saturday morning. (read below)
Saskatchewan and Manitoba
Arctic high pressure will also keep the sky clear over Saskatchewan and Manitoba, and it will be very cold. Even colder than Thursday. Without wind chill, most areas will reach highs of only -30 or colder, but when you factor in the wind, the weather again becomes even more dangerous. The map below shows early evening wind chills on Friday.
Those unable to stay inside, should consult the warning page at Environment Canada’s website before heading out. And, of course, with the clear sky, snow is not anticipated in either province.
Saturday
Alberta
As the Arctic high pressure system slowly shifts southward on Saturday, the band of light snow that developed Friday night from a foothills Low, will continue to fall through the day, especially west of highway 23. An upslope flow will enhance the snowfall over higher terrain. Current guidance suggests the foothills could get 15 cm of snow, with about 10 cm falling in Calgary and Lethbridge. East of Highway 23, snow accumulations will be much smaller, ranging from 0 to 2 cm. It will remain cold, with temperatures peaking between -90 and -15 in southern Alberta, and remaining in the -20 to -25 degree range in central and northern regions.
Saskatchewan and Manitoba
Saskatchewan and Manitoba will remain clear and dry on Saturday, and still under the influence of the Arctic high. That, of course, means it will be very cold. From Saskatoon southeast to Brandon and across to Winnipeg, afternoon temperatures without the wind chill will range from -35 to -38. In most areas, wind chills will remain near -40, though in the Brandon area, they’ll be closer to -50. This is dangerously cold. This is the third consecutive day of extreme cold in the eastern prairies. Obviously, this will put incredible stress on livestock, which will require more food to produce the energy they need to maintain a healthy core temperature.
Sunday
Alberta
The snow in southern Alberta ends on Sunday, though a Low in the Territories will send another band of snow across the forests of northern Alberta, including Wood Buffalo. Central and southern Alberta will remain sunny, and – finally – a warming trend begins. But only for central and southern regions. From Edmonton south to the US border, temperatures will rise to the -2 to -7 range – considerably warmer than the previous few days. The warming trend will be felt in the rest of Alberta, though north central and northern regions will remain seasonably cold, with highs between -10 and -20.
Saskatchewan and Manitoba
Like Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba will experience a slight warming trend, though it will remain quite cold. In Saskatchewan, high temperatures in western regions will rise to the minus teens. In eastern Saskatchewan, highs will climb to the -22 to -27 degree range, which, in some areas, is still a 10 degree improvement from the day before. Manitoba remain bitterly cold, though as many areas in the agricultural south will struggle to reach -30. It will be warmer in central and northern regions, with highs from -21 to -25. The cold weather is the only high impact story for the two provinces again, as the sky should stay sunny, with no precipitation.
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