Prairie Weather (Rural Roots Canada) – Mild in Alberta, a bit warmer elsewhere. And, still, not much snow. At least for most of us.
A clear west-to-east temperature gradient dominates the Prairies. Alberta enjoys an extended stretch of spring-like warmth, Saskatchewan stays seasonably mild, while Manitoba starts cold before moderating into early February.
Thursday
Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba
Check out this map of afternoon temperatures on Thursday:
Again, a huge contrast in temperatures develops from west to east. It’ll be very warm in southern Alberta, and very cold in southern Manitoba., particularly near Winnipeg. Manitoba’s cold air is due to an Arctic high centered right over southern Manitoba. Alberta’s warm air is due to a westerly downslope flow coming across the Rocky Mountains. In this situation, the strong wind will be confined to the area south of highway 3, but will remain below warning level, with peak gusts near 70 km/h. Saskatchewan is in between, with a bit of a tug of war between the warm air to the west and the cold air to the east. Wind chills for Manitoba and Eastern Saskatchewan will range from -25 to -30.
Friday
Alberta
Warm and dry conditions persist. Southern and Central Alberta will again see highs between 5 and 8 degrees. South of Highway 3, it will be even warmer, with double digit highs likely, especially in places where there is little or no snow on the ground, such as the Warner area, shown in this image:
In Central and Northern Alberta, most areas will see highs near -5.
Cloud cover will increase late in the day as a Pacific impulse approaches, but precipitation remains limited. Rain or freezing rain is likely to develop in the late afternoon in the Peace Region, spreading eastward overnight. The moisture is coming from a weak low that will form in the afternoon near Fort St. John, BC, moving into northern Alberta overnight.
Saskatchewan
Little change across Saskatchewan. Expect partly cloudy conditions and continued mild mid-winter temperatures on the western half of the province. Highs there remain in the -5 to -8 degree range. In the eastern half of Saskatchewan, expect highs between -12 and -15. These steady conditions are favourable for winter travel and outdoor work. Take advantage of it….big changes happen Saturday (read below)!
Manitoba
The core of the Arctic air mass settles over the province. This will be the coldest day in this outlook for Manitoba, with highs in the south between -20 and -25 and brisk north winds at times producing wind chills near -35. It will be slightly warmer in the north, with highs from -15 to -20, with wind chills near -25. A Low in the Territories will produce snow north of the 55th parallel.
Saturday
Alberta
A weak Pacific system moves inland, bringing increasing cloud cover and the chance of scattered flurries or freezing rain in central and northern regions. In central and southern Alberta, areas west of highway 23 should remain dry with a westerly wind. East of highway 23, rain will be possible in the early morning. The Low delivering the precipitation will move through Saskatchewan during the day, and as it pulls off to the east, the precipitation will taper off in Alberta during the afternoon.
Temperatures remain very mild for late January, with highs of 4 to 10 degrees in southern Alberta and -3 to -10 farther north. As the map below shows, northern regions could see 7-10 cm of snow on Saturday, while the rest of the province stays dry.
Saskatchewan
Expect wet weather across Saskatchewan on Saturday. Some areas will get rain, some will get freezing rain, and some will get snow. This will require two maps to illustrate. The first map shows precipitation of all types expected to fall in Saskatchewan between 7 pm Friday night and 7 pm Saturday:
This second map shows where only snow will fall:
North Central Saskatchewan gets snow, southeastern Saskatchewan gets snow, but southwestern Saskatchewan can expect 3-5 mm of rain on the last day of January. Mild air will rush into southern Saskatchewan, where highs will range from 1 to 5 degrees. Elsewhere, expect highs between -5 and -10.
Manitoba
There will be a slight moderation in temperatures for Manitoba. In the south, west of the Red River Valley, highs will range from -6 to -10. East of the Red River Valley, and in central and northern regions, highs will range from -11 to -16. The sky will become partly cloudy late in the day, and as the map above shows, trace amounts of snow are possible.
Sunday
Alberta
Mild conditions continue into February. The sky will be partly cloudy, with a chance of late day flurries in the northwestern corner of Alberta . From Lethbridge to Milk river, expect highs near 12 or 13 degrees, with mid single digit highs expected anywhere and everywhere south of Edmonton. North of the capital city, highs will range from -2 to -20.
Looking ahead, strengthening ridging suggests above average temperatures will continue next week.
Saskatchewan
A weak disturbance exits the province, leaving isolated flurries early, then partial clearing later in the day. The flurries will hit southeastern Saskatchewan in the morning, then move out by midday, leaving behind partly cloudy conditions. Snow accumulations will be minor. The wind will come from the southeast, soi highs in the southern half of the province will range from -2 to -9, and in the north, it will be much colder, with highs in the boreal forest closer to -20.
Manitoba
Moderation continues as milder air moves in from the west. Expect a mostly cloudy day. There is a chance of flurries across southern Manitoba and the interlake through the morning, with pockets of heavier snow near Gimli, and south along the Red River Valley. Accumulations will be near 5 cm across the region. The snow will taper off in the afternoon.
Daytime highs recover to -12 to -20, a slight improvement from late week conditions.
