Prairie Weather (Rural Roots Canada) – The January Thaw arrives a bit early this year, as the prairies warm up on the weekend
It happens nearly every January…a brief period of warm weather, providing us a break from harsh winter conditions. It’s a phenomenon known as the January Thaw, and this year, it arrives a bit early:
Over the next few days, the prairies will warm up. Areas of southern Alberta and southern Saskatchewan with no snow on the ground will experience temperature above the melting point. Elsewhere, it may not be as warm, but it will be warmer than average this weekend across the prairies.
Thursday
Alberta
Southern Alberta remains dry, providing favourable conditions for livestock care, grain hauling, and winter equipment maintenance. A few isolated flurries may develop late in the afternoon near Edmonton and north of Drumheller, but accumulations are expected to be minimal and unlikely to be disruptive.
Across northern Alberta, snow will move through the forested regions, driven by a low pressure system near Fort McMurray. Outside of the north, expect a mix of sun and cloud across most of the province.
Strong winds in the southwest foothills (gusts to 70 km/h) may increase livestock stress and drifting in exposed areas. Mild for early January. Highs 3 to 6 degrees south and central; cooler north, where temperatures between Calgary and Edmonton will peak near -5. North of Lesser Slave lake, it will be more typical of January, with highs in the minus teens and minus 20s.
Saskatchewan
Mild and dry conditions persist across Saskatchewan, with afternoon highs between -4 and -10, with temperatures climbing a bit closer to zero along the US border. Snow will begin to move across Northern Saskatchewan due to a passing Low pressure system late Thursday night and early Friday morning. The snow will miss agricultural regions.
Manitoba
Slightly warmer than average winter weather continues across Manitoba on Thursday, with most agricultural regions reaching highs in the -7 to -10 range. In the far north, temperatures will climb to the -10 to -15 range, which is above average for early to mid January.
Early in the morning, a low pressure system over the northern basin of Lake Winnipeg will move east toward Ontario, generating snow across parts of central Manitoba. The Interlake and areas east of Lake Winnipeg will see the most snowfall, which could impact local travel.
A westerly wind will keep southern Manitoba’s primary agricultural regions dry, allowing farm operations and transportation to continue under a mainly sunny sky.
Friday
Alberta
Dry weather will continue across most of Alberta on Friday. The main exception will be the Peace Region, where flurries develop during the day, affecting areas north of Grande Prairie. Accumulations will be minor, likely under 5 cm.
Elsewhere across the province, conditions remain dry, with a westerly wind bringing continued mild temperatures to southern Alberta, and along the foothills between Montana and Grande Prairie. South of Barons, afternoon highs will reach the mid single digits, increasing the likelihood of surface melt in farmyards, feedlots, and low-lying fields. In central and southeastern Alberta, highs will range between 0 and -10.
Farther north, colder air remains in place, with highs between -10 and -20 north of Edmonton. Wind chills in the far north will reach the -3os.
Saskatchewan
Above seasonal temperatures will continue across southern Saskatchewan on Friday, particularly south of the Trans-Canada Highway, where afternoon highs will range between -5 and -10.
Across central and northern Saskatchewan, colder air remains in place, with daytime highs in the -15 to -20 range. Producers in these regions should continue to monitor, as cold stress remains a factor. Wind chill will make it feel considerably colder across the large part of Saskatchewan north of the Trans Canada Highway. Wind chill in the -20s is expected there.
Expect a mix of sun and cloud across Saskatchewan, along with isolated light snow flurries in central and southeastern Saskatchewan throughout the day. Snowfall amounts will be minimal and non-disruptive.
Manitoba
A weak low pressure system will move across southern Manitoba during the day, producing light snowfall with minimal accumulation. Weather-related disruptions to agricultural operations are expected to be limited.
During the morning hours, light snow will be concentrated north of Dauphin along the Saskatchewan boundary, potentially creating brief reductions in visibility. By midday, the snow will spread west to east across the province, reaching the Interlake region, while southern Manitoba’s primary agricultural areas remain largely dry.
By the afternoon, the snow shifts into southeastern Manitoba. The Low producing the snow will move into northwestern Ontario Friday night, and the snow will intensify in the Interlake and southern Manitoba. At this point, there may be disruptions to travel anywhere east of Brandon.
Temperatures will remain seasonably cold, with afternoon highs near -10 across southern Manitoba, around -15 in central regions, and below -20 north of Gillam.
Saturday
Alberta
After some early morning flurries between Lloydminster and Cold Lake, all of Alberta will become mainly sunny and dry. A southwesterly wind will develop, bringing very mild air to all of Alberta. Temperatures will climb above zero across most of the province, with the warmest weather, south of the Trans Canada Highway, where highs in the low double digits are possible. The lack of snow on the ground in this area allows sunlight to be absorbed by the ground, with the heat redirected into the air above. Areas with snow on the ground will also be mild and above zero, but highs will be closer to 5 degrees. Along the Saskatchewan boundary and in northern Alberta, highs can be expected in the -2 to -8 range.
Saskatchewan
Central and southern regions of Saskatchewan will have another dry and sunny day, as snow crosses the northern part of the province from west to east. It’s a weather pattern that has become quite familiar over the winter. Temperatures in the western half of Saskatchewan will rise to the -2 to -9 range. On the eastern side, it’s much colder, particularly smith of Yorkton, where temperatures may remain near -20 throughout the day.
Manitoba
Temperatures in Manitoba on Saturday return to their long term averages. In the Red River Valley, expect highs near -10. West of Portage La Prairie, it will be considerably cooler. Places near Brandon and Virden will likely remain below -20 through the day. Most of the province will be dry, but the morning will start with snow in southeastern Manitoba and the Red River Valley. By the afternoon, the snow will have moved into northwestern Ontario, leaving southeastern Manitoba with clouds for the rest of the day. As the map below shows, snowfall accumulations in southeastern Manitoba on Saturday will be minor.
Sunday
Alberta
Sunday will be a mild day across all three prairie provinces, but nowhere will it be warmer than southern Alberta. Again, double digit highs are possible south of the Trans Canada Highway Sunday afternoon, with the warmest weather happening in areas not covered by snow. Positive temperatures are likely throughout much of Alberta again. Like Saturday, it will be a bit colder along the Saskatchewan boundary and in northern Alberta. Alberta will be sunny through the day. The most significant weather hazard is likely to be ice that forms when meltwater freezes at night.
Saskatchewan
Warmer weather spreads across Saskatchewan, which will have a mainly sunny Sunday,. Highs across the province, even in the far north, are expected to rise to the 0 to -5 range. No signfiicant weather is expected, though there will likely be a brisk westerly wind in many regions.
Manitoba
A low presure system will move from west to east along the Manitoba-Nunavut boundary Sunday, spreading snow to the northern half of Manitoba. The Interlake and southern Manitoba will remain dry,, with a westerly wind. It will be warmer than average, with highs in the -5 to -10 range. Oddly, the coldest weather in Manitoba on Sunday is expected in the southeast, from the Red River Valley to Whiteshell, including Steinbach, Ste. Anne, and Hadashville. Temperatures there could stay near or below -10.
