Prairie Weather (Rural Roots Canada) – Active weather winds down, with sunny and drier conditions returning.
The transition from an extraordinarily active spring pattern to something more workable arrives this weekend. Thursday is the last difficult day for most of the prairies, with rain and thunderstorms. Friday is transitional, and Saturday through Sunday delivers the sunny and dry conditions producers (and non-producers alike) have been waiting for. Alberta gets there first, Saskatchewan follows closely behind, and Manitoba completes the recovery by Sunday. Looking further ahead, the most likely scenario is for generally quiet weather to continue across the prairies into next week. That means the window from Saturday through at least mid-week next week may be the most sustained field-work opportunity of the entire spring.
Between finishing seeding, getting herbicide passes done, and scouting for wheat midge and other pests that have benefited from the wet conditions, there is no shortage of work waiting for dry days on the prairies. The forecast is finally cooperating. The drying trend is shown in the animation below:
The updated Canadian drought monitor displays conditions as of May 31. A lot of rain has fallen on the prairies since then, so rather than post the already-outdated drought monitor map, we have a map with updated data from CzechGlobe. Its modelling shows most of the prairies to be in good shape after the early June rain, though there are still concerns in parts of Saskatchewan and southeastern Manitoba:
Thursday
Peace Region
Showers, cool, and windy. The high in the region may reach 17, but a gusty northwest wind will put a chill on the day. The upper trough driving instability across central and southern Alberta reaches far enough north to bring organized shower activity to the Peace today. Showers will be most likely through the afternoon. Thursday is not a field day for the Peace, but Friday improves considerably.
Alberta
The upper trough continues to keep conditions cool, unsettled, and showery across the province on Thursday, similar to recent days. Thunderstorms are expected to develop across central and southern Alberta this afternoon. Most storms should remain non-severe, but localized pockets of instability across southern Alberta could support a few isolated severe thunderstorms. The primary threat from any severe storm would be hail in the 2-3 cm range. The most likely targets for the severe storms are the foothills west of Calgary and southeastern Alberta between Medicine Hat and the US border. This is the last significant convective day for Alberta before the pattern shifts. Keep an eye on afternoon storm development if you are working fields in the central and southern zones. A shortwave moving into Alberta from BC overnight tonight will bring more organized rain into southwestern Alberta on Friday, particularly along the foothills, with a few centimetres of snow possible over higher terrain and along Highway 93 through the mountain parks.
Saskatchewan
A low sitting over northeastern Manitoba (seen in the animated map above) keeps conditions cooler and unsettled across Saskatchewan on Thursday, with gusty winds adding to the difficulty. The thunderstorm risk on Thursday is confined to extreme southern areas where a surface trough lingers. While thunderstorms will be scattered and non-severe, they remain capable of locally heavy downpours, pea-sized hail, and gusty winds. Temperatures reach the upper teens to around 20 degrees across central and southern areas before cooling on the backside of the low. Northern and western Saskatchewan stay mostly cloudy with scattered showers and no significant severe weather risk. Cooler air wrapping southward from the low as it tracks into northwestern Ontario will produce a noticeable cooldown along with a mix of sun and cloud and the chance of a few scattered showers or afternoon thundershowers across the eastern half of the province Thursday and Friday.
Manitoba
Thursday is the most active day of the period for Manitoba. The mb low over northeastern Manitoba is strengthening and driving heavy rainfall into the northeast of the province, with accumulations of 50-80mm forecast by the weekend, with locally higher amounts possible in convection. In southern Manitoba, expect showers and thunderstorms through the morning and afternoon with a high of 18, northwest winds gusting to 30 km/h, and there is a good chance of showers continuing overnight. Wind gusts will be a factor across much of the province on Thursday, with northwesterly flow behind the passing low. There is no seeding or spray window in Manitoba on Thursday.
Friday
Peace Region
Though it is not yet zero, the shower risk is lower than on Thursday, and conditions improve through the afternoon. Grande Prairie may see a bit more morning rain than other parts of the Peace in Alberta and BC. Elsewhere, Friday is a marginal field day – morning hours are better than afternoon if you want to attempt any work. The real improvement comes on Saturday. Highs on Friday will reach the high teens.
Alberta
Edmonton sees a mix of sun and cloud on Friday with a high of 16, while Calgary’s cooler (high of 12) and wetter. The overnight shortwave brings organized rain to southwestern Alberta, particularly along the foothills. Northern Alberta starts to improve with the mix of sun and cloud, while the south deals with one more showery, cool day. Snow is possible in the mountain parks and along higher terrain on the eastern slopes on Friday. Total isolated amounts in the Cypress Hills and Whitecourt regions between Tuesday and Friday may exceed 60mm in some spots. The pattern shift is already underway in the north; the south catches up by Saturday. Overnight lows return to the single digits province-wide with cloudy periods.
Saskatchewan
Conditions improve from west to east on Friday as weak high pressure expands eastward from Alberta. Southern Saskatchewan warms the quickest, while portions of Manitoba and eastern Saskatchewan may take an extra day or two to fully rebound. Western and central Saskatchewan should see a decent field day emerging Friday afternoon once morning cloud clears. The Saskatoon area and points west can reasonably expect a workable afternoon. Eastern Saskatchewan stays cloudier and unsettled longer as the low slowly moves away into northwestern Ontario. Temperatures return to the low-to-mid 20s across western and central areas on Friday afternoon. If you have herbicide passes to make or remaining seeding in western and central areas, Friday afternoon opens the door.
Manitoba
The low overhead on Thursday gradually shifts toward northwestern Ontario during Friday, and with it goes the worst of the weather. Daytime highs in southern Manitoba will reach the high teens. It will be a dry day, but showers return overnight. Most of central and western Manitoba should see improving conditions through the day with partial clearing. The overnight shower risk is tied to residual instability on the back edge of the departing system and should be light and not particularly impactful on field conditions. The real improvement for Manitoba comes on Saturday.
Saturday
Peace Region
Conditions improve to a mix of sun and cloud with highs in the low to mid-twenties on Saturday, the warmest day of the period for the Peace. This is a legitimate field day. If your soils have had adequate time to drain from Thursday’s showers, Saturday gives you a window to push on herbicide applications or any remaining seeding. The weekend ahead, into Sunday, should give the Peace back-to-back workable days.
Alberta
After dealing with several weeks of active weather, periods of rain, and cooler-than-average temperatures, Alberta is finally moving into a quieter pattern. Highs across the province will reach the high teens or low 20s. Saturday is an excellent field day across the province. Southern Alberta lags slightly behind the north in terms of temperature recovery, given the extra round of rain on Friday, but sunshine and warmth dominate by the afternoon. Producers who have been waiting for a clean, dry window to get equipment moving should treat Saturday as the start of a multi-day opportunity. Soil conditions will vary considerably given the highly uneven rainfall distribution of the past two weeks, with some areas near the foothills and in the south carrying substantial moisture, while other central areas are closer to normal.
Saskatchewan
The high-pressure system expanding from Alberta reaches Saskatchewan on Saturday, bringing improving skies and temperatures recovering to the low-to-mid 20s across most of the province. Southern Saskatchewan warms the quickest, while portions of eastern Saskatchewan may take until Saturday to fully rebound from the departing low. Western and central Saskatchewan — including the Saskatoon and Regina areas that have been notably drier than the rest of the province through the active pattern — should see a good field day Saturday. This is a priority day for herbicide applications across most of the province. Spray windows will be the best they have been in weeks. The northeast and east-central, which are furthest behind in seeding at 67% and 63% complete, respectively, need soils to continue draining, and Saturday’s warmth and sun will help that process, though those heavier soils will need more time.
Manitoba
The tail end of the departing low system keeps conditions in Manitoba unsettled a little longer than areas to the west. The cool, showery conditions that have defined the province’s week persist Saturday, though with noticeably less intensity than Thursday. Western Manitoba improves more quickly and may see a workable afternoon. Central and eastern Manitoba should plan for another limited field day Saturday, with the clear improvement arriving on Sunday. Overnight Saturday, skies will clear across the province. Highs Saturday should reach the high teens.
Sunday
The map below illustrates beautifully how widespread the dry weather will be across prairie agricultural regions on Sunday:
Peace Region
Continued improvement with a mix of sun and cloud and highs in the 25 to 27 degree range. Back-to-back workable days, Saturday and Sunday, give Peace Region producers the best seeding and spray window of the past several weeks. Looking ahead, there are some indications that another area of low pressure could approach the central prairies around the middle of next week, though confidence in timing and strength remains low. Use the weekend fully.
Alberta
Sunday is the warmest, clearest day of the period for Alberta, with highs reaching the mid 20s. Soil temperatures will respond well to back-to-back sunny days, which benefits germination for crops already in the ground. The risk of precipitation remains relatively low through the early part of next week, with the overall forecast still favouring mainly dry conditions for most of the province. This is the most sustained, settled period Alberta has seen in over a month. Make the most of it.
Saskatchewan
Full sunshine and highs reaching the low-to-mid 20s across the province make Sunday the best all-around day of the period for Saskatchewan. Skies are expected to be partly cloudy to mostly sunny as high pressure expands eastward. The window for completing the remaining seeding in the northeast and east-central is now open, subject to field conditions on those heavier soils. Producers in those regions should be out assessing fields Sunday morning and moving equipment where soils are dry enough. With wheat midge emergence elevated province-wide, the timing of in-crop sprays will matter more than usual this season.
Manitoba
The low is gone, the high is in charge, and Sunday is a clean field day across the province. Conditions should improve as weak high pressure expands eastward from Alberta, with skies becoming partly cloudy to mostly sunny and temperatures recovering into the low to mid twenties. Western and central Manitoba have the edge on conditions, given they improved sooner, but even eastern areas should see a solid Sunday. With Manitoba tracking behind the five-year average for seeding completion and with the next potential system flagged for mid-week, Sunday is not a day to leave equipment parked.
