Prairie Weather (Rural Roots Canada) – The final days of March bring more snow to the Canadian Prairies.
The beginning of spring turned out to be a continuation of winter as a significant snowstorm crossed the prairies over the past few days. And winter doesn’t want to leave us just yet. As the map below shows, many parts of the prairies will get another 3-5 cm of snow by early Sunday evening. The snow, of course, is well timed, just a few weeks ahead of seeding and planting. That said, the soil moisture deficit is so severe that single, small weather events such as what will happen over the next few days won’t make a meaningful difference.
As the system that brought snow to the prairies during the midweek moves east, an Arctic high is building southward into the eastern Prairies. This will produce colder but generally settled conditions through the weekend, before another system arrives early next week. But within that “settled” weather, a few weak disturbances will continue to put down snow from time to time, as shown in this animation:
For cow-calf operations still working through calving, the temperature swings over the coming days require continued vigilance. A brief warming window develops in southern Alberta by the weekend, but the eastern Prairies will remain locked in a cooler pattern. Newborns will need monitoring, especially through the colder nights that accompany the incoming Arctic high across Saskatchewan and Manitoba.
Thursday
Alberta
Parts of southern Alberta awoke to fresh snow Thursday, but with the sky clearing and arctic high pressure taking over, cool, clear weather follows. Daytime highs across central and northern Alberta will struggle to climb above −8, with Arctic ridging keeping conditions raw through the afternoon. Southern Alberta will see a mix of cloud and clearing, as temperatures hover near -2 in the south. Travel conditions should improve through the afternoon as the disturbance disappears and the sky clears.
Saskatchewan and Manitoba
The system that delivered moderate to heavy snow across portions of Saskatchewan and Manitoba over the past 24 hours is now departing into northwestern Ontario. Behind it, a large Arctic high is building into the eastern Prairies, clearing the sky and calming the wind. Expect a predominantly sunny afternoon across the region. Temperatures will remain below average, but conditions will be workable, with highs in the −5 to −8 range across central Saskatchewan and southern Manitoba. North of the Yellowhead Highway, in both provinces, temperatures will remain below -10 through the day.
Friday
Alberta
Thursday brings mostly quiet conditions to Alberta as the Arctic high consolidates over the region. It will be sunny to partly cloudy, with a light wind. In the late afternoon, a weak disturbance will generate minor snowfall in the Peace Region and north of there. Accumulations will be minor. Central and northern Alberta will see highs ranging from -4 to -9. South of the Yellowhead highway, a southwesterly flow will develop and double-digit warmth returns to places like Lethbridge and Milk River. Temperatures in the high single digits will be achieved as far north as Edmonton and Lloydminster. Any snow still on the ground Friday morning will likely disappear by the end of the day.
Saskatchewan
A weak disturbance is forecast to pop off the southern Alberta foothills during the day Thursday and move eastward toward southern Saskatchewan. Ahead of this low, a southerly flow develops, bringing mild weather to southern Saskatchewan with highs of 5 to 6 degrees. The warmth is extra significant, as the region will still be under the influence of departing Arctic high pressure, and that will keep the Saskatchewan sky sunny. In central and northern Saskatchewan, away from the influence of the southerly flow, temperatures will range from -8 to -10.
Manitoba
Light snow can be expected in the far northern regions of the province, with a few flurries in southeastern Manitoba from Winnipeg to Ontario. Otherwise, it will be sunny with a westerly wind for most of the province. Highs will range from around −5 in the south to −10 to −12 across central and northern agricultural regions. No major systems will cross Manitoba on Friday.
Saturday
Alberta
Frustration builds in southern Alberta as Saturday will be another day of dry weather. In central and northern Alberta, though, light snow can be expected through the day, starting between Edmonton and Jasper in the early morning, then moving eastward. Accumulations will again be minor, and as the snow departs at the end of the day, it will be replaced by an all-new Arctic high-pressure system, which will clear out the sky, leading to another cold night. Lows in the Edmonton area will drop to the 15 to -20 range. Before that, it’ll be a cool day across Alberta. Positive temperatures will be reached south of Highway 3, but the rest of the province will remain below the freezing mark, with highs between -3 and -8.
Saskatchewan and Manitoba
Any lingering flurry activity from Friday night’s weak disturbance will wrap up early Saturday morning across central Manitoba. In Manitoba, along with central and northern Saskatchewan, the rest of the day will be sunny and cold under the Arctic high. Temperatures across central Saskatchewan will reach near −5. In southern Saskatchewan, it will be warm. Expect highs of 11 or 12 along and south of the Trans Canada Highway. Southern Manitoba agricultural areas will see highs near −5, with lighter winds making conditions feel more seasonal than the temperatures suggest. This is a good window for producers to move equipment between fields or check on calving operations in more comfortable conditions.
Sunday
Alberta
The first signs of a pattern shift are beginning to show in Alberta as a weak upper ridge attempts to build over the western Prairies. Beneath the upper ridge, a surface disturbance will produce light snow in central and northern regions during the midday hours. In southern Alberta, temperatures climb into the 8°C to 10°C range in the Lethbridge, Milk River, and Medicine Hat areas under a sunny to partly cloudy sky. In central Alberta, it will remain slightly colder than average with highs of -3 to -7. Similar highs will occur in northern regions.
Saskatchewan and Manitoba
Confidence in the strength of the weekend ridge decreases as you move east. Model guidance has been inconsistent on how much warmth the ridge will allow to push into the eastern Prairies. At this point, the most likely scenario keeps conditions cooler across Saskatchewan and Manitoba compared to Alberta. Expect partly cloudy skies with highs reaching near 5°C across extreme southern Saskatchewan and southwestern Manitoba, while central and northern areas remain in the −3°C to −5°C range. Even with modest warming, the Arctic air remains the dominant feature over this part of the Prairies. And, again, no significant snowfall is expected in either province on Sunday.
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