Prairie Weather (Rural Roots Canada) – Snow returns to the prairies over the next few days, but will it be enough?

The next few days will bring snow to the parched portions of the southern prairies, especially Alberta and Saskatchewan. However, after the two snowy events are over, there may be some disappointment.

First, the expected snowfall numbers are still significant, though reduced, from earlier in the week.   Parts of southern Alberta and southern Saskatchewan can expect 15 to 20 cm of snow up until Sunday night at midnight.

Snowfall and Soil Moisture

While the expected snowfall is welcome, but not great, this will still rank as one of the snowiest stretches of days this season. Here’s a look at the impact. The next map shows snow depth as of 1:00 pm Thursday, March 12:

As the map above shows, there’s just not a lot of snow on the ground in southern Alberta and southwestern Saskatchewan. Now, let’s look at the expected snow depth at the end of the weekend, Monday morning at 1:00 am:

So, after getting 15-20 cm of snow by Sunday night, there may be only 5-8 cm on the ground. And, as the cliche goes, there’s good news and bad news. The good news is that some of the moisture may soak into the unfrozen ground. The bad news is that much of the moisture may disappear due to evaporation when the sun comes out on Sunday. And by Tuesday afternoon, the ground over southern Alberta and southwestern Saskatchewan will likely be bare and dry again.   The overall impact on soil moisture is likely to turn out to be minimal.

Thursday

Alberta

A powerful prairie storm tracks across the province, bringing heavy snow and strong winds. Snowfall of 5–15 cm is possible across many areas, with locally higher amounts between Calgary and Edmonton. Southern Alberta may also see brief rain or freezing rain early, before changing to snow. Winds will shift from southwest to northwest with gusts up to 90 km/h, creating poor visibility in open areas.  The snow and blustery conditions are expected to continue across most of the province for most of the day. Highs range from -3 to -7, with overnight lows near -10.

Strong winds and falling snow may create difficult conditions for livestock and transportation of feed and supplies.

Saskatchewan

Snow spreads across much of the province with 2-10 cm expected, heaviest in central and southwestern regions.  The stormiest conditions will happen during the midday south of the Trans Canada Highway, due to a low pressure system in northeastern Montana.   The snow in that region will taper off by the end of the day, as the low tracks quickly into North Dakota. Strong east to northeast winds of 40-60 km/h will lead to areas of blowing snow and reduced visibility.  Daytime highs near -7 to -8, dropping to about -12 overnight.  North of the Yellowhead hiighway, it will be colder, with highs near -10.

Manitoba

After a partly sunny start to the day, clouds and snow take over in the afternoon across southern Manitoba, with 2 to 4 cm of accumulation expected. Winds from the southeast 30 to 50 km/h may produce blowing snow in open country.  As a low pressure system crosses northern North Dakota during the afternoon, snowfall south of the Trans Canada highway could become quite heavy, causing transportation trouble.  Highs around -2 to -1, with lows near -13.  Light snowfall adds to the snowpack, but wind may cause drifting in exposed fields and farmyards.

Friday

Alberta

Conditions improve as the storm exits. However, light snow will persist through the day in southwestern Alberta, along the foothills, in the Peace Region, and across parts of northern Alberta, on the southern edge of the boreal forest. The snow will continue into the evening and Saturday morning. Because the snow will be light, accumulations will only reach 2 to 5 cm in most areas. The wind will turn northwest and weaken significantly. Highs near -2 to -5 with overnight lows around -15.

Saskatchewan

It will become partly sunny with a few lingering flurries possible. Winds diminish as colder air settles over the province. No significant snow accumulations are expected, though there may be a few midday flurries northeast of Saskatoon. Highs around -6 to -7, with lows near -15.  Similar to Thursday, it will be colder north of the Yellowhead highway, with highs of -10 or below.

Manitoba

Most of southern Manitoba will see a mix of sun and cloud, with western portions cloudier than eastern regions. In the afternoon, snow from Saskatchewan will move over the lakes, but it does not appear that there will be any snow in agricultural regions on Friday. Northwest winds may remain brisk early in the day.  Expect high temperatures near -10 in the south and -20 in the north.

Saturday

Saturday will be a cold day all across the prairies, with temperatures well below average.  The map shows expected temperatures in the early evening across the prairies on Saturday:

Alberta

In addition to the cold weather, another disturbance near the Rockies brings renewed snow to southern Alberta, including the Calgary region.  Snow is likely in many southern districts, while central and northern regions see more variable cloud, with little to no precipitation north of the Yellowhead highway. South of the Trans Canada Highway, 10-20 cm of snow will be possible on Saturday, and travel may be impacted. Highs near -11 in southern Alberta, with overnight lows around -15. Additional snowfall may help rebuild snowpack moisture across southern cropland areas.

Saskatchewan

Snow is expected to arrive in southwestern Saskatchewan by the end of the day, as another low-pressure system crosses the northern United States. This low is quite strong, but it is also farther south, and much heavier precipitation will fall in eastern Montana and the Dakotas. High pressure building in from the north will clear out the sky in northern and central Saskatchewan. As the above map shows, it will be a cold day across the province.  At best, afternoon highs may reach -11.

Manitoba

Saturday will be rather uneventful in Manitoba, as the sky clears through the day due to arctic high pressure moving down from the north. This is going to produce an extraordinarily cold day, as seen on the map above, with early evening temperatures in the -20s. Earlier in the day, temperatures could climb to -10 or -11 across southern Manitoba, but remain below -15 in the northern half of the province.

Sunday

Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba

All three prairie provinces can expect sunshine on Sunday, and it will be a bit warmer in Alberta and western Saskatchewan, where highs will reach the -4 to -9 range.   In the eastern prairies, temperatures will stay below -10 throughout the day. It’s so clear and cold because of the Arctic high pressure that will expand across all three provinces.

READ:  Drought eases in the eastern prairies; worsens in the West