Prairie Weather (Rural Roots Canada) – Dry weather for the western prairies, wetter in the east
The chart below shows the rain expected up until early evening Sunday October 19. Central and east central Alberta will be dry, but there will be some rainfall in southern areas. Most of the agricultural land in Saskatchewan also won’t see any rainfall, but southeastern Saskatchewan and Manitoba will get soaked from a Colorado low.
The map below shows how the storm will move across southeastern Saskatchewan and Manitobe through Friday and the weekend:
Here’s the outlook heading into and through the weekend:
Thursday
Alberta
Mostly sunny to partly cloudy across the province unti late in the day, as a Low pressure system forms just on the other side of the Northwest Territoris boundary. That will cause showers in the north, moving into north central regions of western Alberta into the evening and overnight. Daytime highs in the low teens, overnight lows around 0 to –3.
Saskatchewan
A Colorado low is moving toward southwestern Manitoba, and began spreading rain into southeastern Saskatchewan Thursday morning. The rain will continue, and intensify during the day, and as the animated map above shows, rain will continue in the region on Friday before drying out on the weekend. The rest of Saskatchewan will be dry and mainly sunny, with highs in the 10 to 15 degree range.
Manitoba
A Colorado Low will reach northern North Dakota in the afternoon. It began to spread rain into southern Manitoba earlier in the day. By midday Thursday, the Emerson area was getting signifcant rainfall already:
The rain will last through Friday as the low moves northeast through the province. (See animated map above). In southern Manitoba Thursday, highs will be in the 10-15 degree range, though cooler in areas with early rainfall.
Friday
Alberta
The Northwest Territories low will move north….BUT….will drag a cold front across northern and central Alberta, producing rain in those regions much of the day. A secondary area of showers will develop Friday morning near and west of Edmonton, and will drift southeast during the day. By midday, the showers will have reached Calgary, then on to southern Alberta during the afternoon. There may be some more disruptive weather west of Calgary in the midday, when the band of showers may be mixed with snow at higher elevations. Temperatures in those higher elevation areas will remain near zero. Across the rest of the province, expect highs near or slightly above 10 degrees.
Saskatchewan
A cold front associated with a low in the Northwest Territories will produce a cold front that will move through northern Saskatchewan, producing some light rain in the northern forests. Agricultural land in central and southern Saskatchewan will stay dry. Expect a brisk westerly wind in the south, with highs near 10 degrees across the province.
Manitoba
Despite recent wet weather, the latest Manitoba crop report shows 93 percent of the harvest is complete. The number is not going to change Thursday, as wet weather will continue to keep farmers indoors. Friday, the Colorado Low (see animated map above), moves through the province from the southwest to the northeast producing rain, at times heavy, especially in the interlake. Southern Manitoba will continue to get rain, but in lesser amounts. High temperatures Friday will be in the 10-15 degree range.
Saturday
Alberta
A classic Chinook pattern develops Saturday, with a powerful Low pressure system in the Pacific, and a weak ridge of high pressure in southeastern BC driving mild, dry air across the rockies and into southern and central Alberta. This will, after a frosty morning, produce afternoon highs in the mid teens. The province will be dry, with the possibility of the Grande Prairie/Peace regions, where some moisture from the Pacific Low may sneak in. Again, as is the situation with the classic Chinook pattern, there will be heavy precipitation in BC. Those planning travel into BC this weekend will want to check weather onditions and forecasts frequently. And there would be no better place to do that than here.
Saskatchewan
In the early morning, expect showers along the Manitoba boundary north of Yorkton all the way to the Northwest Territories. Those showers will move east, and the sky will clear. The rest of the province will catch some of the chinook wind that will come off the Rockies, powered by a Low pressure system off the BC coast. It will be a breezy, dry day, with temperatures reaching 10-15 degrees on the western side of the province, and 5-10 degrees on the eastern half.
Manitoba
The slow moving, departing Colorado Low will reach the Hudson Bay coast during the day, but it’s glacial speed means another wet day for Manitoba. The map below shows the rainfall expected in Manitoba by early Saturday evening:
It will be a cool day, with highs of 5-10 degrees across most of the province. Just warm enough to keep the rain from turning to snow.
Sunday
Alberta
The Pacific Low that produced chinook conditions for Alberta on Saturday moves ashore, and weakens as it interacts with the mountainous land of northern BC. The low will jump the Rockies and reform in northern Alberta. Though it’s in a weakened state, it will produce showers of both rain and snow in the northern forests. By the end of the day, the Low will be in central Saskatchewan, but will continue to produce rain and snow in the north. In the late afternoon, a few showers can be expected in parts of southern Alberta east of highway 2 and south of highway 1. It will be. a warm day south of the Low, with highs of 10-15 across most regions. From Gleichen east to Saskatchewan, highs of 15-20 degrees are possible.
Saskatchewan
A low that forms early in the day in Alberta will end up in central Saskatchewan by late afternoon. It’s not a particularly strong low (995 mb), so there will be no storm as such. What it will do, though, is destabilize the atmosphere, and allow showers to develop in the afternoon across central and southern regions. Ahead of those late day showers, the Low will draw in mild air from the south. it will be quite warm, with highs in the 15-20 degree range across most of southern Saskatchewan. In central and northern regions, it will be considerably cooler, with highs of 5-10.
Manitoba
While rain may linger for yet another day in northern Manitoba, the southern part of the province will have a dry day, Expect sunshine early, with cloud building on the west side of the province. Southeastern Manitoba and the Red River Valley should stay sunny all day, with highs of 10-15 degrees. Great day for one final trip of the season to the BDI on Jubilee, if it’s still open.
COMPARE: Prairie Weather This Week – Oct 13
