Prairie Weather This Week – Midweek Update

Prairie Weather (Rural Roots Canada) –

Thursday

Alberta:

Frost is possible in the foothills west of Red Deer and Edmonton early in the morning. There is potential for temperatures to drop as low as -5. It won’t last long, as it warms rapidly through the morning. Temperatures will be rather cool, though, reaching only the low double digits at best. The entire province will stay dry through most of the day, following some early morning showers in the foothills. Across the province, the wind will be light. In Northern Alberta, the wind will come from the west, and in the south, it will be a northerly wind.

Saskatchewan:

On the backside of a low just east of Lake Winnipeg, some verfy light showers will roll through the forests of north central Saskatchewan, but it will be another dry day over agricultural land. Expect a light wind out of the northwest, with highs reaching 10-15 degrees across most of the province, slightly warmer near the US border.

Manitoba:

The weak low east of Lake Winnipeg moves to Hudson Bay by the end of the day. It will drag some showers north of the lakes, near Thompson and Gillam, but the province’s agricultural land will stay dry. Across southern Manitoba, temperatures will reach 15-20 degrees, 10-15 degrees in the Interlake, and colder to the north. There will be a light wind from the north.

Friday

Alberta:

With a surface high pressure system developing over Alberta in the morning, it will be another dry, uneventful day. Across the province, it will be warm enough in the early morning to avoid a killing frost. The wind will be light, and in the afternoon sun, it’s likely temperatures will rise to the high teens in the south, the low double digits in north-central Alberta, and peak between 5 and 10 degrees in the north.

Saskatchewan:

The Alberta high moves across Saskatchewan through the day, so the day should be sunny and dry. With a light southeast wind, temperatures will peak between 10 and 20 degrees in southern and central regions, reaching 5-10 degrees in the northern half of the province.

Manitoba:

Yet again, dry weather dominates for another day. By the end of the day, a rather strong surface high pressure system will be positioned over Pembina, ND, keeping much of the province under a clear sky, and most of the province with dry weather. It will be cooler than the provinces to the west, with highs in most of Manitoba peaking between 10 and 15 degrees.

Saturday:

Alberta:

Again, there is very little change. Alberta will be dry, as high pressure rebuilds over Banff National Park. Earlier expectations of extraordinarily warm weather have fizzled, though it will be pleasant with highs of 10-15 degrees across the province. In the early morning, temperatures will drop to near zero. Check with Environment Canada for frost advisories.

Saskatchewan

Expect a pleasant fall day in Saskatchewan, too, with the building upper ridge helping to boost temperatures into the low to mid teens. The wind remains light, and the weather dry. Early morning frost is unlikely.

Manitoba:

Highs in the low teens are also forecast across Manitoba. No significant weather is expected and temperatures across the province should reach double digits both days. Sunday will be the warmer of the two days, as a warming trend kicks off in the beginning of next week. Friday’s high over Pembina will be replaced by a Low in almost the exact same spot. Circulation around the surface low will lead to afternoon rain northeast of Winnipeg from Gimli to Pine Falls as far north as Gods Lake Narrows.

Sunday:

Alberta:

While the province will have another dry day, a phenomenon known as a lee trough will develop over the foothills. This is caused by a big Low in the Gulf of Alaska, and a weak high over Lake Louise. That may result in a windy day, with afternoon temperatures, especially in the foothills, reaching the high teens or nearly 20 degrees. East of Highway 2, it will be about 5 degrees cooler. If there is any moisture near the surface of the soil across southern Alberta, expect this wind to dry it out rather efficiently.

Saskatchewan:

It’ll be another dry day, with a light southeasterly wind, and highs in the low to mid teens. No significant weather is expected.

Manitoba:

High pressure in northwestern Manitoba will maintain dry conditions across Manitoba, with only the northeastern part of the province, near Shamattawa, getting any rain. It will be cold enough in that area for the possibility of a rain/snow mix. Where there is precipitation, amounts will be very light. In the southern agricultural regions, it will be dry, with temperatures reaching the low to mid teens.

Alberta Snow?

Just for fun, looking into the long range, there are indications parts of lower terrain Alberta could receive the season’s first snow at the end of next week. This is fairly far into the future, so it’s by no means a guarantee, but it is something to monitor. Below is a chart showing snow for Calgary the night of October 18, suggesting 3.1 cm.