Prairie Weather (Rural Roots Canada) – Dry and pleasant weather is expected all this week across the prairies.  There will be a few disturbances here and there (details to follow), but there will be no significant improvement to soil moisture levels arising out of the small amount of rain.

Of course, we need fall rain before the freeze, as, once it freezes, the moisture will be trapped in the ground throughout the winter.   No evaporation.  That sets up nicely for a good start to spring.   The less frozen moisture locked into the ground over the winter, the more we have to rely on snowmelt in the spring to replenish the soil moisture supply.    That may not be a problem next spring.  The outlook is positive for spring snowmelt and runoff if La Nina performs as expected, dropping plenty of snow in the Rockies over the winter.

The dry weather this week is due to a traffic jam in the upper atmosphere.   Below is an animation showing the movement of upper level weather systems about 18,000 feet above the ground from Monday morning to Sunday night.   The areas shaded blue on both coasts are upper level lows.  In between, there is high pressure, bringing dry conditions to the prairies.  And, because of the traffic jam, nothing much will change over the week.

Furthermore, there are indications this weather pattern will continue beyond the next seven days.

This next map shows the temperature anomaly for this week.   Areas in orange show higher than average temperatures, and that pretty much covers the prairies, and a great deal of the entire continent.

The following map shows accumulated rainfall up to the evening of Sunday, October 13.    Most of the agricultural land in southern Manitoba, Saskatchewan, and  Alberta, should not expect a drop of rain this week.

 

The prairies may stay dry, but take a look at the west coast.   They will get soaked.

Monday

Alberta:

No significant weather is expected, as high pressure will keep the rain away.  The wind is expected to be light, and after a chilly morning, afternoon temperatures could climb to 20 degrees or better in the south, with highs of 15-20 degrees in the rest of the province.

Saskatchewan:

Like Alberta, Saskatchewan will be dry throughout the day, with temperatures approaching 20 degrees in the southwestern part of the province, and 15-20 through central regions.  Highs will be closer to 10 in north central and northern Saskatchewan.  Wind will be light and variable.

Manitoba:

A weak disturbance will bring some rain showers to northern Manitoba.   Temperatures may be very close to zero, so mixed precipitation is possible.  All this occurs north of the lakes, and does not affect agricultural territory.  In the south, there will be no significant weather.  The wind will be light, and high temperatures are expected to reach the low double digits, with single digit highs north of Gillam.

Tuesday

Alberta:

Rain can be expected in northwestern Alberta early in the morning due to a Low pressure system developing in the BC Peace.   The low will track northeast into the Northwest Territories.  Some straggling showers could reach areas northwest of Edmonton by late afternoon and evening, but will have little impact, as they will be short-lived.    More brief showers may break out in central Alberta Tuesday night into Wednesday afternoon.   Rainfall totals will likely come in under 5 mm.   South of Red Deer,  Alberta is expected to be dry all day.   It will be warm again, with highs of 20 or above in southern Alberta east of the foothills, with most of the rest of the province expected to peak in the mid to high teens.  It will be cooler where the rain falls in northwestern Alberta.

Saskatchewan:

No significant weather is expected.   There will be a light south wind, and temperatures south of the Trans Canada highway will reach the mid 20s, with the rest of the province reaching highs of 10-20 degrees.

Manitoba:

Other than a few early morning showers in the far northwestern part of Manitoba, the province’s weather will be uneventful.  Temperatures could reach the mid 20s in southwestern Manitoba, in places like Melita, Virden, and Souris.  Low 20s are possible elsewhere in southern Manitoba west of Winnipeg,  with highs of 10-15 through the Interlake.   North of there, highs will only reach the single digits.

Wednesday:

Alberta:

A weak surface low will develop in the Calgary area, and from that, some light showers are possible between Calgary and Edmonton Wednesday afternoon.   Accumulations will be very light to the point of being insignificant.   South of Calgary, and north of Edmonton it will stay dry.   It will be a slightly cooler day with only southeastern Alberta getting a chance to reach 20 degrees.  High teens are expected elsewhere in southern Alberta, with only low double digit temperatures from Red Deer north.

Saskatchewan:

It’s another day without any significant weather in Saskatchewan.  South of the Trans Canada Highway, temperatures could reach the low to mid twenties, with a light wind.   In fact, wind won’t be a problem anywhere in Saskatchewan Wednesday.   Temperatures in central Saskatchewan will reach the mid teens, with single digit temperatures in the north.

Manitoba:

It looks like a  low pressure system wants to form on the northern tip of Lake Winnipegosis, but without success.  So, Manitoba will stay dry on Wednesday, and there will be no significant weather.   Temperatures in the southwest will reach the low to mid twenties.   In the rest of southern Manitoba and through the interlake, expect highs in the high teens, and north of the lakes,  most areas have a shot at low double digits.    The wind will be light across the province.

Thursday

Alberta:

Frost is possible in the foothills west of Red Deer and Edmonton early in the morning.  There is potential for temperatures to drop as low as -5.  It won’t last long, as it warms rapidly through the morning.   Temperatures will be rather cool, though, reaching only the low double digits at best.   The entire province will stay dry through most of the day, following some early morning showers in the foothills.  Across the province, the wind will be light.  In Northern Alberta, the wind will come from the west, and in the south, it will be a northerly wind.

Saskatchewan:

On the backside of a low just east of Lake Winnipeg, some verfy light showers will roll through the forests of north central Saskatchewan,  but it will be another dry day over agricultural land.  Expect a light wind out of the northwest,  with highs reaching 10-15 degrees across most of the province, slightly warmer near the US border.

Manitoba:

The weak low east of Lake Winnipeg moves to Hudson Bay by the end of the day.   It will drag some showers north of the lakes, near Thompson and Gillam, but the province’s agricultural land will stay dry.  Across southern Manitoba, temperatures will reach 15-20 degrees, 10-15 degrees in the Interlake, and colder to the north.   There will be a light wind from the north.

Friday

Alberta:

With a surface high pressure system developing over Alberta in the morning, it will be another dry, uneventful day.   Across the province, it will be warm enough in the early morning to avoid a killing frost.   The wind will be light, and in the afternoon sun, it’s likely temperatures will rise to the high teens in the south, the low double digits in north-central Alberta, and peak between 5 and 10 degrees in the north.

Saskatchewan:

The Alberta high moves across Saskatchewan through the day, so the day should be sunny and dry.  With a light southeast wind, temperatures will peak between 10 and 20 degrees in southern and central regions, reaching 5-10 degrees in the northern half of the province.

Manitoba:

Yet again, dry weather dominates for another day.   By the end of the day, a rather strong surface high pressure system will be positioned over Pembina, ND, keeping much of the province under a clear sky, and most of the province with dry weather.  It will be cooler than the provinces to the west, with highs in most of Manitoba peaking between 10 and 15 degrees.

Saturday:

Alberta:

Again, there is very little change.  Alberta will be dry, as high pressure rebuilds over Banff National Park.  Earlier expectations of extraordinarily warm weather have fizzled, though it will be pleasant with highs of 10-15 degrees across the province.    In the early morning, temperatures will drop to near zero.   Check with Environment Canada for frost advisories.

Saskatchewan

Expect a pleasant fall day in Saskatchewan, too, with the building upper ridge helping to boost temperatures into the low to mid teens.   The wind remains light, and the weather dry.   Early morning frost is unlikely.

Manitoba:

Highs in the low teens are also forecast across Manitoba.  No significant weather is expected and temperatures across the province should reach double digits both days.  Sunday will be the warmer of the two days, as a warming trend kicks off in the beginning of next week.  Friday’s high over Pembina will be replaced by a Low in almost the exact same spot.   Circulation around the surface low will lead to afternoon rain northeast of Winnipeg from Gimli to Pine Falls as far north as Gods Lake Narrows.

 

Sunday:

Alberta:

While the province will have another dry day, a phenomenon known as a lee trough will develop over the foothills.  This is caused by a big Low in the Gulf of Alaska, and a weak high over Lake Louise.  That may result in a windy day, with afternoon temperatures, especially in the foothills, reaching the high teens or nearly 20 degrees.   East of Highway 2, it will be about 5 degrees cooler.  If there is any moisture near the surface of the soil across southern Alberta, expect this wind to dry it out rather efficiently.

Saskatchewan:

It’ll be another dry day, with a light southeasterly wind, and highs  in the low to mid teens.   No significant weather is expected.

Manitoba:

High pressure in northwestern Manitoba will maintain dry conditions across Manitoba, with only the northeastern part of the province, near Shamattawa, getting any rain.  It will be cold enough in that area for the possibility of a rain/snow mix.   Where there is precipitation, amounts will be very light.    In the southern agricultural regions, it will be dry, with temperatures reaching the low to mid teens.

 

Alberta Snow?

Just for fun, looking into the long range, there are indications parts of lower terrain Alberta could receive the season’s first snow at the end of next week.    This is fairly far into the future, so it’s by no means a guarantee, but it is something to monitor.    Below is a chart showing snow for Calgary the night of October 18,  suggesting 3.1 cm.

 

 

COMPARE TO LAST WEEK: Prairie Weather This Week – Sept. 30