Prairie Weather This Week

Prairie Weather (Rural Roots Canada) – Warm weather and Alberta clippers will affect the prairies this week

This week, it’s one Alberta clipper after another. A series of fast moving clippers will cross the prairies during the week, bringing brief spells of cloud, wind, and light rain or flurries, but no major storms or cold outbreaks are expected. The overall weather pattern will remain dry, despite an active jet stream. A broad ridge of high pressure over Western Canada will keep the weather quiet, aside from the clippers. Check out the animated map below. It shows, over the next week, a series of Low pressure systems (clippers) forming in Alberta and moving rapidly eastward.

There will be snow and rain associated with each clipper, with the moisture mainly affecting central and northern parts of Alberta and Saskatchewan, along with southeastern Saskatchewan and southern Manitoba.

Precipitation amounts will vary. The next two maps show total accumulated precipitation up until midnight Sunday, November 9. South of Red Deer and west of highway 2 in Alberta, little or no rain or snow can be expected. This includes areas northwest of Red Deer into the foothills. Elsewhere, there will be some rain and snow, due to the fast moving clippers.

As a side note, check out the rain expected on the west coast in the above map. Persistent Pacific lows continue to hammer the coast with rain.

This second map shows precipitation totals expected for Manitoba and Saskatchewan over the same period of time.

Note the banded nature of the precipitation. The areas of heavier precipitation track to the north of the clippers as they head southeast from Alberta. Central Saskatchewan and southern Manitoba will be the main beneficiaries of the moisture coming out of these systems as they track across the prairies and the northern US plains.

Day-by-Day Outlook:

Monday

Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba

A fast moving clipper system that brought a few showers to the Stettler area Sunday has moved into Saskatchewan and dissipated, leaving the prairies with an uneventful weather day. While cloud can be expected over southern Alberta, the rest of the prairies will be mainly sunny. Highs will range from 5-10 degrees across central and southern regions, thanks in part to a westerly wind. In the northern third of the prairies, expect highs between 0 and 5.

Tuesday

Alberta

A weak Low, an Alberta Clipper forms in southern the southern part of the province, bringing rain and snow back to the area. Snow is more likely in the Lethbridge area, gradually turning to rain to the east along Highway 3 to Medicine Hat. The snow may extend as far north as Vulcan. Further north, the weather should remain dry, and partly cloudy to mostly sunny. By the end of the day, the clipper will have moved to northeastern Montana, and high pressure will build over the Rockies. For two reasons…a lack of moisture, and the high speed of the system…accumulations will be light. In southern areas affected by the rain and snow, highs will only reach 0 to 5. Elsewhere in southern and south central Alberta, expect highs of 5-10. North of Edmonton, highs will be in the 9-5 degree range.

Saskatchewan

A clipper that forms early in the day in southern Alberta moves into southwestern Saskatchewan by midday. It will spread cloud across the southern part of the province, and rain west of Moose Jaw. South of the Trans Canada highway, with highs in the 0 to 5 degree range, snow or mixed precipitation can’t be ruled out. Accumulations should be light – 5 mm at most. To the north, central Saskatchewan will be mainly sunny. And, further north, expect light snow in the boreal forest, due to a weak (1014 mb) low in north central Saskatchewan. Again, accumulations will be minor. Away from the clipper, in central Saskatchewan, expect highs between 5 and 10. In the north, highs will be closer to 0, hence the possibility of snow.

Manitoba

It will be a dry day in Manitoba. From the central interlake south to the US border, it will be cloudy. Further north, expect sunshine. It will be an extraordinarily warm November day in Manitoba, with highs of 5-10 in the southern half of the province. Though sunshine will be more abundant in the north, it will be cooler, with highs near or slightly above 0.

Wednesday

Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba

With Tuesday’s weak clipper dissipating, mainly dry weather returns to all three prairie provinces. There will be cloud cover over most of Alberta, with sunshine in Saskatchewan and Manitoba. The only precipitation expected is snow near Jasper, spilling over from British Columbia. The chances of this happening aren’t great, but also not zero. South of the Yellowhead Highway from Calgary to Thunder Bay, highs will be in the 5-10 degree range. West of Calgary and in the northern halves of all three provinces, highs will be closer to 0. There will be an easterly wind, though quite light.

Thursday

Alberta

Yet another, stronger, clipper forms, this time in the Calgary area. As it moves quickly southeastward, it will leave a trail of precipitation across the prairies, as shown on the map below:

The clipper will form near Lethbridge in the early morning, and by the end of the day, it will be in northern South Dakota. As the map above shows, areas in Alberta that get moisture will see accumulations in the 5-12 mm range. The biggest uncertainty is what form the precipitation will take. Within the band of precipitation in Alberta, areas on the north side can expect snow, with rain or mixed precipitation to the south. The clipper will draw extraordinarily warm air into southern Alberta. South of the precipitation band, expect double digit highs. In central Alberta, where the precipitation falls, highs’ will range from 0 to 5, and north of Edmonton, it will be a sub-freezing day with highs from 0 to -5

Saskatchewan

The map above shows precipitation cutting across southern Saskatchewan, as an Alberta clipper crosses the region during the day. The system will move fast, and it should be warm enough that, at least in Saskatchewan, the precipitation will be in the form of rain. That said, with highs of 0-5 along the precipitation track, snow or mixed precipitation can’t be ruled out. If the above map is correct, the most intense precipitation is likely to happen along or just north of the Trans Canada Highway. North of Saskatoon, it will be cold, with highs remaining below zero, and an easterly wind.

Manitoba

Southern Manitoba will also get some light rain from the fast moving clipper. Accumulations will be light – less than 10 mm, and limited to southern Manitoba, south of the lakes. The rain will begin in the midday, and after sunset, it is likely to turn to mixed precipitation or snow. High temperatures will range from 0 -5 south of the lakes. In central Manitoba, highs will remain below zero. North of Thompson, highs will struggle to climb to -10.

Friday

Alberta

Another Alberta clipper forms Friday. Early in the morning, chinook will come off the mountains, and a lee Low will form in southern Alberta. As the low forms, it will be quite warm in southern Alberta with midday highs in double digits south of the Trans Canada Highway and east of highway 2. Positive high temperatures will be reached all the way to Edmonton. Of course, the clipper will also produce some precipitation. That’s expected north of Edmonton, and will be in the form or snow, or freezing rain. It will cause impediments to travel, and it would be advisable to check forecasts, watches, and warnings before using the highways north of Edmonton. The clipper Low will become more organized over Brooks by late afternoon, and may produce some light rain showers in the area, moving east toward Saskatchewan in the evening.

Saskatchewan

Expect a snowy day in central Saskatchewan, intensify as a new Alberta clipper approaches from the west. The snow will fall across southern Saskatchewan early in the day, retreating to north of the Yellowhead highway by the afternoon. Once the snow leaves southern Saskatchewan, warmer air will rush in, and highs from 0 to 10 can be expected, leaving very little snow on the ground, if any. In central and northern regions, expect highs no warmer than 0, which will allow for a greater opportunity of accumulation once the snow moves north of the Yellowhead.

Manitoba

Manitoba will have a relatively quiet weather day, until snow moves into the Dauphin region in the late afternoon. The snow is coming in from an Alberta clipper, moving across the southern prairies, and will continue into the weekend. It will be a cold day. All of Manitoba will remain below zero during the day.

Saturday and Sunday

Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba

The clipper exits into southern Manitoba Saturday, bringing snow to most of the province with the heaviest accumulations in the southern Interlake. Alberta clears and dries out under renewed high pressure. Winds shift northwesterly, ushering in cooler air across all provinces. Temperatures fall to single digits across all three provinces, with central and northern areas remaining below zero. Another weak low may approach from the west by midweek, potentially bringing another brief warm-up.