Prairie Weather (Rural Roots Canada) – Lots of weather news, and it’s mostly good.   The harvest is more than 90 percent complete, all done before the first snow….and in many areas before the killing frost.   The latest Alberta Crop Report says there have been hard frosts across most of the northern half of the Peace Region and through a significant portion of the Southern and Central Regions.   Significant frosts have also occurred in parts of Manitoba.

Soil moisture conditions across the prairies are much improved over this time last year.   The more moisture we can lock into the soil over the winter will lessen our reliance on spring melt and runoff to provide adequate moisture in the spring.    The following map is from the Canadian drought monitor, and it shows the change in drought conditions from August 2023 to August 2024.   Areas shaded in green show improvement.   The darker the green, the greater the improvement.   Areas in yellow show deterioration.   Orange hues show areas with more significant deterioration.

prairie weather
Courtesy: Canadian Drought Monitor

In that one year period, soil moisture has improved dramatically in southern and southeastern Alberta, east of Regina, and throughout Manitoba’s agricultural territory.   Drought conditions in central and northern Alberta have worsened.

The weather pattern that gave warm, sunny, dry weather to most of the prairies is expected to change this week.   Last week, we mentioned there was a traffic jam in the atmosphere with Low pressure systems (blue on the map) on the western and eastern ends of the country, with high pressure (red on the map), in between the Lows and over the prairies.   That hasn’t changed.  Yet.  The map below is valid early Monday morning:

prairie weather
Courtesy: Tropical Tidbits

This week, it changes.   The weather pattern becomes progressive, and  the big blue blob (Low pressure) in the Gulf of Alaska will be dislodged, and will head our way.

prairie weather
Courtesy: Tropical Tidbits

By midday Thursday, the upper low will be right over British Columbia and Alberta, drawing cooler air from the north.   Over the eastern prairies, the upper high will weaken, but the flow will remain southwesterly, so the change in temperature won’t be as drastic as in Alberta.    Temperatures midday Thursday will be in the high teens or even as warm as 20 in southern Manitoba, but Alberta’s down to single digit highs:

prairie weather
Courtesy: Pivotal Weather

The change in the weather pattern will bring some rain to the prairies, and snow to Alberta’s higher elevations.   More on that in the day-to-day forecast below.

Monday:

Alberta

A southwesterly wind crossing the Rockies will produce a chinook arch in southwestern Alberta.    The rest of southern Alberta will be mainly sunny.   Cloud cover will dominate in the north, though rain is not expected.  Afternoon highs are expected to reach the low 20s from Leduc south to the US border.   Elsewhere, highs of 15-20 will be common on a very warm October day.

Saskatchewan

It will be a mainly sunny day with some afternoon cloud crossing the southern half of the province from west to east.   Temperatures in southwestern Saskatchewan have a good chance of reaching 20.   However, elsewhere in the province, it’s likely to be up to ten degrees cooler.   No rain is expected, though the wind, especially in the south, could be brisk.

Manitoba

Manitoba is also expecting a mainly sunny day with a few bands of cloud crossing the province from west to east.   Most of the province will stay dry, though there is a SLIGHT chance of some early afternoon rain showers in the Winnipeg area, with a possibility of freezing rain.    The chance is minimal, and if it does happen, it will be a short lived event.  It will be chilly. Highs in the Whiteshell, east of Lake Winnipeg and across the north will only reach the low single digits, with highs of 5 to 10 degrees expected elsewhere.

Tuesday:

Alberta

As an atmospheric river slams the central BC coast, some of the rainfall may make its way into the Jasper area.   Otherwise, it will be another dry and warm day across Alberta.   It’s likely to be the warmest day of the week, as mild Pacific air flows across the mountains.   A chinook arch will be present again, and the warm westerlies will push temperatures to the 20 degree mark and beyond across southern Alberta.   Even though it will be sunnier in the north, it won’t be quite as warm as the south.   Northern Alberta will miss out on the chinook flow, but the sun will help boost temperatures to the mid teens.   We are in the dark half of the year, though, and the sun doesn’t have the warming influence it had only a few weeks ago.

Saskatchewan

Other than a brisk southerly wind in southeastern Saskatchewan, it will be an uneventful weather day.   It will remain sunny south of the Trans Canada Highway, with cloud thickening up through the day in central and northern Saskatchewan.   Rain is not expected.   West of Regina and as far north as Rosetown, temperatures will reach the high teens.  Elsewhere, expect highs of 10-15 degrees.   It’ll be a beautiful fall day.

Manitoba

Rapidly moving bands of cloud will continue to cross the province with the strong westerly flow aloft.  The wind will stay out of the south, and rainfall is not expected anywhere in the province.  It remains chilly, though, with highs of only 5-10 degrees.

Wednesday:

Alberta

Early in the morning, a surface Low pressure system will develop somewhere between Standard and Hanna.    North and west of the centre of low pressure, rain is likely, with most of it in the Edmonton area.  As the day goes on, the low moves to the northeast,  and by the end of the day, the rain will have moved north to a line approximately between Westlock and Cold Lake, then into Saskatchewan.   The rain is not expected to reach the agricultural south.  In southwestern Alberta, there will again be a chinook arch early in the day.  As the low develops and peels off to Saskatchewan, the arch will clear out,  leaving a partly cloudy sky for most areas south of Edmonton.  Afternoon highs will reach the high teens in the south.   Due to the clouds and rain, and the circulation around the Low, only single digit highs are expected across central and northern Alberta.

Saskatchewan

The northern half of the province will be under thick cloud cover throughout the day, with only a few thin clouds in the south.    The low that develops in southern Alberta in the morning will spread rain into central Saskatchewan by the late afternoon.    The south will remain dry, with highs between 15 and 20.   In the north, beneath the cloud, and in the rain, with an easterly wind, highs of only 5-10 degrees can be anticipated.

Manitoba

Under high pressure, the wind will be light from the south, and it will be sunny for most of the day through the Interlake and south to the US border.   Cloud from the Saskatchewan low will invade northern Manitoba in the afternoon, but rain is unlikely.  Across most of the province, highs of 5-10 can be expected.   It may be five degrees warmer in southwestern Manitoba, and barely above freezing in the far north.

Thursday:

Alberta

As mentioned earlier, this is the day the upper low reaches BC and Alberta, and the weather pattern changes, and the western prairies cool down.   Most of Alberta north of highway 3 will struggle to make double digits.

Rain is expected in northeastern Alberta, but the rest of the province will stay dry.

We continue to wait for our first significant snow of the season.

 

Saskatchewan

It will be cloudy all across Saskatchewan through the day.  Rain is expected most of the day in the far north.   Southern Saskatchewan can expect light rain or showers in the afternoon.    Highs in southern Saskatchewan east of Moose Jaw will reach 10-15 degrees.   Elsewhere it will be colder with single digit highs.

Manitoba

A low over Brandon will draw warm US air into southeastern Manitoba, and it will be a mainly sunny, beautiful fall day in between the Lakes and the US border, with temperatures reaching the high teens, or higher.  Agricultural areas will stay dry, though there will likely be rain through the Interlake and in northern Manitoba.

Friday:

Alberta

As another atmospheric river pounds the west coast with rain, Alberta will have the effect of being on the east side of the Rockies, meaning the province will stay dry.  The early morning will be clear and cold, with temperatures falling below zero across the province.  Lows are expected to be between 0 and -5.   With a westerly wind, temperatures will rebound in the afternoon to the low double digits in the south.  Friday night, the wind will pick up, with gusts in some areas reaching 90 to 100 km/h.   Most of the rest of the province will warm to between 5 and 10 degrees.

Saskatchewan

Most of Saskatchewan will experience a sunny, dry, pleasant fall day.   However, in the far north, along the boundary with the Territories, rain or snow are expected in the morning, ending by noon.   A southwesterly wind will draw seasonably mild air into areas south of Saskatoon, which could warm to about 10 degrees.

Manitoba

South of the lakes, highs will reach 10-15 degrees.   Further north, highs will end up between 5 and 10.  Frost is not expected anywhere in Manitoba Friday.   The mid-section of the province will enjoy sunshine.   In the south, there will be some cloud, and perhaps some brief showers in and south of the Whiteshell.   Clouds and rain are also expected  north of the lakes,  generated by a Low pressure system that will bring snow to the Territories.   It will be too warm for snow in Manitoba.

Saturday:

Alberta

Chinook conditions return to southern Alberta Saturday, with westerly wind of roughly 40 km/h south of highway 3.   While the wind won’t be as strong in central and northern regions of Alberta, they will benefit from the warm and dry weather.   Temperatures from Edmonton south will reach double digits, and much of central and southern Alberta, including Red Deer, Calgary, Drumheller, Coronation, and Medicine Hat have a decent shot at reaching 20 degrees. However, within 100 km of the boundary with the Northwest Territories, it will be much colder, with temperatures only near zero, with snow falling in the region.  This is because of a surface low that forms between Fox Creek and Grande Prairie, acting in cahoots with another, weak low near the Saskatchewan – Manitoba line.   This Low could also produce a weak afternoon thunderstorm in the foothills of central Alberta.

Saskatchewan

In the south, sunshine Saturday, and it will feel like summer.    Double digit temperatures are expected everywhere in Saskatchewan, except for the far north.    From Saskatoon south, it will warm to the high teens.   North of Saskatoon, highs will reach the lower half of the double digit range, and it will be cloudy.   North of the 59th parallel, expect rain, and even snow close to the boundary with the Northwest Territories.

Manitoba

Most of Manitoba will be dry, except for the far north, where, by late afternoon, rain will fall along the Nunavut boundary. Highs on Saturday will reach 10-12 degrees across most of the province.   North of the lakes, it will be mainly cloudy, but through the Interlake and across the south, expect bright sunshine, and a light to moderate southwesterly wind.

 

Sunday:

Sunday’s warm across the southern prairies.   Check out these afternoon temperatures…..

 

Courtesy: Pivotal Weather

 

 

Alberta

A weak low pressure system forms near Cayley by late afternoon, causing a brisk southwesterly wind in southeastern Alberta.   While the sky will be clear south of highway 16 most of the day, the Cayley low will form some afternoon cloud between Claresholm/Lethbridge and Irvine.  North of highway 16, expect clouds and rain to develop in the afternoon, changing to snow near Athabasca and Slave Lake.  It will feel like summer in the south, with temperatures reaching the high teens and low 20s.  In the north, with the cloud and snow, expect highs just a few degrees either side of zero.

Saskatchewan

Saskatchewan will also get a summer feeling with temperatures reaching double digits south of Saskatoon.   In the southwest, in places like Maple Creek, Swift Current, Beechy,  Gull lake, and Shaunavon, temperatures will likely jump to the low twenties.  In the north, it will be cloudy north of the Yellowhead highway,  but it should remain dry, except close to the Alberta boundary.  The clouds will suppress temperatures, though, as only single digit highs are forecast for north central Saskatchewan, and subzero temperatures for the far north.

 

Manitoba

Temperatures across southern Manitoba and the Interlake will rise to the low double digits, while it will be much cooler in the north.    A band of cloud will cross east-west through central Manitoba.   It will be sunny and warm in the south, and sunny and cold up north.   Arctic high pressure in northern Manitoba will keep temperatures below zero throughout the day.

 

 

COMPARE TO LAST WEEK: Prairie Weather This Week – Oct 7

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