Prairie Weather (Rural Roots Canada) – Snow and rain end – warm, dry weather returns, just as drought conditions worsen
Happy Thanksgiving! The Canadian Thanksgiving marks the end of harvest season, and this year most farmers can be thankful for a successful harvest, while, yes, there are those who are waiting again for next year.
The weather this fall made the harvest easy. Interruptions were few, and most farming operations have completed the job. However, that same warm, dry weather has worsened drought conditions across Canada, including the Canadian prairies. The latest drought monitor shows 83 percent of the praireis is either abnormally dry or in drought, including 64 percent of agricultural land.
In Alberta, while conditions degraded in the central part of the province, it was even worse in the Grande Prairie/Peace River region. Some pockets of exceptional drought have developed there, and across the boundary into the BC Peace, which is that province’s largest agricultural region. In Saskatchewan, higher rainfall in the southeast caused conditions to improve, especially between Regina and Manitoba, while drought conditions expanded in central region. Almost all of Manitoba is now considered dry or in drought, though some intense thundertorms caused a reduction in drought severity in parts of southern Manitoba.
Maybe this will help:
As forecast here Thursday, snow fell in parts of Alberta and Saskatchewan on the weekend, and there was still some snow on the ground near Macklin, SK early Sunday afternoon. A report from Eatonia, SK indicated 5 cm had fallen.
In Alberta, Between 5 and 10 cm fell in the foothills and mountains, with a dusting in the city of Calgary.
Note that some higher elevation ares continued to receive snow Sunday, but those totals were not available in time for this post.
The outlook:
Monday
Alberta
The cold front that brought the rain and the snow to Alberta earlier in the weekend will leave us with cold air for Monday. A ridge of high pressure will build in to clear ou the sky, though there maybe more snowflurries in the foothills and mountains. Elsewhere, the province will be cool and dry. High temperatures across the province will range from 0 to 5. In the foothills and mountains, it will be cooler, with highs between -5 and 0.
Saskatchewan
The Montana low that provided the rain and snow Saturday andSunday tracks north along the Saskatchewan/Manitoba boundary. Heavy rain (40–60 mm) is likely from Regina to Melfort and Hudson Bay, changing to snow late in the day. Lesser amounts of snow and rain can be expected in southeastern Saskatchewan. Across the eastern half of the province, there will a strong cold north wind, with gusts possibly reaching 70–80 km/h. The blustery and stormy conditions in eastern Saskatchewan should ease off in the afternoon. The western side of the province will be comparatively drier, though cool with a north wind. Across the entire province, highs will range from 0 to 5 on Monday.
Manitoba
Heavy rain spreads across central and eastern Manitoba, with 40–60 mm possible before cold air arrives. The low will track across northern Manitoba, with rain extending south through the interlake. South of the lakes, unless there is a change in he rack of the low, should remain dry with a west wind. In southern Manitoba and the interlake, expect highs between 5 and ten degrees. Elsewhere in the south, highs will come in between 0 and 5. In more northern areas, the rain will cause evaporative cooling. That, combined with a north wind, will cause precipitation to be in the form of snow.
Tuesday
Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba
The ridge of high pressure strengthens over the prairies, Manitoba’s moisture is pushed out into Ontario, and all three prairie provinces will have a dry day, with a mix of sun and cloud and a not-too-strong southerly wind. Early in the morning, there will be frost across southern and central Alberta and southern Saskatchewan, as temperatures cool way down to between -5 and -10. By the afternoon, highs across the southern prairies will reach 5-10 degrees, though it will be cooler in central Saksatchewan, with highs between 0 and 5.
Wednesday
Alberta
No relief for moisture starved fields in Alberta on Wednesday. The entire province will be sunny and dry. Double digit highs can be expected in northeastern, central, and parts of southern Alberta, though most of the province will see highs of 5-10 degrees.
Saskatchewan
Most of Saskatchewan will have a sunny Wednesday, except for the southernmost 1/4 of the province. There, it will be cloudy, and south of the Trans Canada Highway, expect showers off and on through the day. Late in the evening, the showers will push north toward Saskatoon. The moisture comes into southern Saskatchewan from a surface low in Nebraska. With temperatures in the 5-10 degree range, the moisture will stay in the form of rain, and snow is unlikely.
Manitoba
Manitoba can expect a dry and mainly sunny day, with highs of 10 to 15 degrees in the agricultural south. Central regions will see highs from 5-10, and in the north, it will be cooler, with highs of 0-5. Late in the day, toward evening, watch for some rain to develop in southwestern Manitoba. A low in Nebraska will send rain into southern Saskatchewan during the day, and it will make its way into southwestern Manitoba Wednesday night.
Thursday
Alberta
The province of Alberta remains starved for moisture Thursday, with another dry, mainly sunny day expected. There could be some late day rainfall in the Peace River area, which has been harder hit by drought than most other parts of the province. Temperatures in central and southern Alberta will reach the mid teens Thursday afternoon – a warmer than average day. In the north, expect highs between 5 and 10.
Saskatchewan
Northern, central, and southwestern Saskatchewan should stay dry through the day with a sunny sky. Southern and southeastern Saskatchewan will continue to get rain from the Nebraska low, which is headed to northern South Dakota by the afternoon. That low will continue to spread moisture north into Saskatchewan and Manitoba via an inverted trough. Temperatures across most of Saskatchewan will reach highs of 5-10 in the afternoon.
Manitoba
Rain will fall across much of southern and central Manitoba through the day, as moisture is pushed into the province along an inverted trough from a Low near the North Dakota/South Dakota border. Highs across most of the province will be near 10 degrees. The map below shows how much rain can be expected Thursday:
Friday
Alberta
The weather across Alberta becomes only slightly more active again on Friday, with a few early day showers in southern, south central, and northern Alberta, and the return of colder air. By the afternoon the showers are over, and the sky clears. There will not be enough moisture to make a difference in Alberta’s worsening drought. It will be cool. Highs of 5-10 can be expected across the province.
Saskatchewan
Fall field work may be delayed another day as showers continue off and on across central and southern Saskatchewan, as well as the northern forests. Cold air will intrude from the northwest, but it will remain warm enough so the rain doesn’t turn to snow. Highs across the province will be in the 5-10 degree range. The showers are not expected to produce any significant accumulations, but there will be little opportunity for drying from the recent rains.
Manitoba
The US low that has provided rainfall to Manitoba in the previous couple of days continues to move, but very slowly. It will head into northwestern Ontario Friday, and continue to provide a rainy day to central and southern Manitoba, with highs ranging from 5 to 10 degrees. As the chart below shows, the heaviest rain will be east of the Red River Valley, but rain will be significant elsewhere, except for western Manitoba.
Saturday and Sunday
The southern prairies will slowly clear from west to east over the weekend. Alberta and Saskatchewan will be dry, but rain will continue in Manitoba on Saturday. Also Saturday, a low will move through northern Alberta, providing rain to the boreal forest. On Sunday, that low moves into northern Saskatchewan. Southern agricultural regions in all three province will begin with dry weather Sunday, but a Low in British Columbia will jump the Rockies, reform in southern Alberta, and could produce significant snow in central Alberta. It’s too early to have confidence in this forecast, so, later this week, check our Thursday update when we’ll have fresh data, and a better grasp on the situation.
COMPARE: Prairie Weather This Week Midweek Update Oct 9
