Prairie Weather (Rural Roots Canada) – Warm, sunny weather returns to the moisture-starved prairies, after early week rain
A fast moving system from Alberta will bring rain and/or snow to central and southern Saskatchewan and Manitoba early this week, to be followed by warmer and drier weather until the weekend. The animation below shows how the system is expected to move between early Monday morning and midday Tuesday:
Once that system passes through, the rest of the week should be warm and dry.
And that (warm and dry) is exactly what is not needed. It will allow farmers the opportunity to do post-harvest field work, but the fields are too dry. Significant snow and rain are needed over the next few months to properly set up for spring, especially from central Saskatchewan west to the Rockies. The map below shows soil moisture anomalies. The brown areas show below average soil moisture, while the blue areas show where soil moisture is above average ( you can ignore the fahrenheit temperatures posted with the city names):
While no one can say for sure whether wet weather is coming to the dry regions over the coming weeks and months, there are some hopeful signs. La Nina has developed, and that often produces cool, wet weather for Western Canada. Not all La Ninas are the same, though, and what happens this season remains to be seen. This La Nina is also expected to be short…possibly ending as soon as December, or as late as February. Either way, it won’t last long.
The hope that La Nina gives us much needed moisture over the driest area of the prairies for the next few months is fuelled by Environment Canada’s seasonal outlook for November, December, and January. The map below shows above average precipitation is expected for eastern BC and Alberta.
Neither above nor below average precipitation is forecast for Manitoba and most of Saskatchewan.
Monday
Alberta
Sunday’s wet weather in central Alberta moves on to Saskatchewan (see animated map above), and a lengthy stretch of dry weather begins. Monday is a transition day for Alberta, with rain and snow possible for central and northern regions in the morning, moving southeast toward Saskatchewan during the day. Those areas that do get rain or snow can expect 5-10 mm on Monday. By late afternoon, the sky clears, and temperatures climb to the 10-15 degree range in southern Alberta, and the 5-10 degree range in most other regions.
Saskatchewan
As the animated map above shows, rain and snow will move through central and southern Saskatchewan during the day, due to an Alberta clipper rapidly heading eastward. By midnight, the rain will have ended for all regions except southeastern Saskatchewan near the Manitoba boundary. Central Saskatchewan can expect 15 to 25 mm of precipitation Monday. Significant rain or snow is not expected south of the Trans Canada Highway or north of Prince Albert. It will be seasonably cool, with highs of 5-10 degrees in western Saskatchewan, and 0 to 5 degrees elsewhere.
Manitoba
Soil moisture levels in Manitoba are quite healthy, and it’s the least of the three prairie provinces in need of rain and snow. Yet, rain is what Manitoba’s going to get on Monday. 15 to 20 mm of rain will fall across southern Manitoba and the Interlake on Monday. While it’s not likely to happen, a few isolated non-severe thunderstorms are possible. The northern half of Manitoba will get no more than a few sprinkles. In the southern half of Manitoba, expect highs between 5 and 10, and in the north, highs will be in the 0 to 5 degree range.
Tuesday
Alberta
A weak low pressure system in northern Alberta will generate a few morning showers or periods of light rain in the boreal forest. By late afternoon, the low will be in northern Saskatchewan, and as it leaves Alberta, it will be followed by a clearing sky. Central and southern regions will have a dry, sunny day with a westerly wind. It will be a warm day, with central and southern Alberta reaching highs of 10-15 degrees. Highs will range from 5 to 10 in the north.
Saskatchewan
A weak low moving in from northern Alberta will spread rain into northern regions of Saskatchewan during the day. The rain is expected only in the far north. The rest of the province will be dry, with mainly sunny conditions on the western side, and more cloud on the eastern side of Saskatchewan. On the east side, there will be a northerly circulation that will keep temperatures below average. North of Yorkton, expect highs between 0 and 5. In the south, and on the western side of the province it will be slightly warmer, with highs in the 5-10 degree range.
Manitoba
Tuesday is a transition day for Manitoba. It begins with rain across most of the southern half of the province. The Low pressure system responsible for the rain will continue to move toward Lake Superior, and the rain will taper off. By late evening, the rain should be over for all of southern Manitoba, followed by a partly cloudy sky. It will be cool with highs of only 0 to 5 degrees. And while it is most likely the precipitation will fall as rain, mixed precipitation, or even straight snow can’t be ruled out.
Wednesday
Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba
All three prairie provinces will be sunny and dry on Wednesday, thanks to a large Low pressure system in the Pacific. It will push wet weather into BC. The rain and snow will fall on the windward side of the mountain ranges, and when the Pacific air descends the eastern slopes of the Rockies, it will be dry, and relatively warm all across the prairies. Temperatures could climb to the 15 to 20 degree range between High River and Lethbridge in southern Alberta. The rest of Alberta and western Saskatchewan will have highs in the 10-15 degree range. Between Moose Jaw and Winnipeg, expect highs of 5-10. It will be cooler in southeastern Manitoba, with highs of 0-5 from Ste. Anne to Ontario.
Thursday
Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba
The Pacific low remains in place off the west coast, leaving the prairies with nearly identical weather to Wednesday. The exception is a few early day showers that will hit northwestern Alberta, before moving north. Elsewhere, it’s another dry, mainly sunny day across all three prairie provinces. A lee trough will form over the Alberta foothills, signalling the possibility of a strong wind. Manitoba and Saskatchewan won’t experience any signifiicant weather. In Alberta and Saskatchewan, expect highs of 10-15 degrees. There may be pockets of warmer air along highway 23 south of Vulcan due to the westerly wind. In southern Manitoba, highs will reach 5 to 10 degrees west of the Red River Valley. To the east, it remains cool, with highs of 0-5.
Friday
Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba
It’ll be the third day in a row of mainly sunny, dry, and rather warm weather across the prairies. The map below shows a large area of warm weather in southern Alberta and southwestern Saskatchewan. The orange blob indicates temperatures reaching the 15-20 degree range.
The rest of southern Saskatchewan and most of Alberta will reach highs of 10-15. Northern Saskatchewan and most of Manitoba will warm to the 5-10 degree range. Perfect weather for post-harvest field work, moving cattle, and putting equipment away.
Saturday
Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba
For the fourth consecutive day, it will be dry and warm across the three prairie provinces. There is, this time, an exception, as a low pressure system develops east of Grande Prairie, generating an upslope flow that will provide rain and snow to the foothills and mountains in northwestern Alberta. As that low moves northeast during the day, the rain will move with it, across to the northeastern corner of the province. Some of the rain could be quite heavy. Other than Grande Prairie and the Peace Regions, Alberta’s agricultural territory will stay dry. Cooler air returns to southern Alberta, with highs of 10-15 degrees. 15-20 is still possible in southern Saskatchewan, and some of that very warm air will move into the southwestern corner of Manitoba in and around Melita. Elsewhere, highs in southern Manitoba and the interlake will reach the 10-15 degree range.
Sunday
Alberta
A weak low in Montana will spread some rain and snow into southern Alberta Sunday morning. Accumulations will be minor, and any snow that falls will melt quickly with warm weather and partial sunshine in the afternoon. Also in the afternoon, expect some rain through north central Alberta, on the north side of a low that develops west of Calgary and moves east. Forecasting these types of systems so far in advance is a bit of a fool’s game, so please check with our Thursday update for better information on Sunday rain and snow. Temperatures are expected to reach 10-15 degrees in southern Alberta, 5-10 degrees in central Alberta, and 0-5 in the north.
Saskatchewan
A low pressure system will bring rain and snow to northern regions. Rain will also enter central Saskatchewan from the west, as a Low pressure system spreads rain out ahead of its track. The low develops west of Calgary in the early morning, reaching North Battleford by the late evening. Southern Saskatchewan should remain dry. In that zone of dry weather, temperatures will reach 10-15 degrees. HIghs of 5-10 will be achieved elsewhere in the province.
Manitoba
It will cloud over during the day across Manitoba, with rain in western Manitoba holding off until late evening. Across the south and the interlake, temperatures should reach 10-15 degrees.
EVENT FORECAST:
Fall Junior Rodeo – High River, AB, October 24 and 25. October 24: Mainly sunny, high 17
October 25: Partly cloudy, high 11
COMPARE: Prairie Weather This Week – October 13
