Prairie Weather (Rural Roots Canada) – Snow for northern AB and SK, wind for southern Alberta, rain for Manitoba
October ends and November begins this week, with generally dry weather across most of the agricultural prairies. While the dry pattern continues in the near future, there are some signs that La Nina will indeed bring colder, snowier weather to the prairies by early winter. This week, though, it will be dry and mild.
Early in the week, northern Alberta and Saskatchewan will get some snow (day to day details below), and southern Manitoba will get some rain. So, the chart showing total precipitation up until Sunday night isn’t totally blank outside parts of Alberta:
Outside of southern Manitoba, though, the agricultural prairies will not receive meaningful precipitation. Look at the west coast. Some areas may receive hundreds of millimetres of rain this week, thanks to a powerful Low pressure system pumping moisture onshore. Most of that moisture will fall on the windward side of the Coast mountains, with significant rainfall also on the windward side of the Rockies in BC. The rainshadow effect will keep the prairies dry, with the moisture being wrung out in BC.
The west coast system will spawn a couple of other secondary lows. One will provide early week snow to northern Alberta and northern Saskatchewan. The second will develop in the northwestern US, and head toward southern Manitoba. Once these two systems move through, dry weather returns to those areas. As the map above shows, agricultural regions of southern Manitoba could receive up to 30 mm of welcome rainfall this week. And it will be rain. The week’s weather remains mild, so there is no significant snow threat in southern Manitoba, or anywhere across the southern prairies.
Sunday morning, a Low pressure system spawned from the main Pacific low formed in northwestern Alberta, and gave snow to the Peace Region. The image below was captured near Demmit, on the Alberta, BC boundary:
This is the system bringing snow to northern Alberta and northern Saskatchewan as it moves to the northeast Monday morning. This is welcome snowfall for the Peace Region, one of the areas hardest hit by drought in 2025.
Monday
Alberta
For northern Alberta – SNOW! A low that formed Sunday in northwestern Alberta will track to the northeast, and produce snow for the northern part of the province Monday and into Tuesday. The map below shows accumulating snow north of Edmonton up to noon on Tuesday:
This is tricky. Indeed the map shows potential for significant snow in northern Alberta. However, there is plenty of uncertainty over just how much will accumulate. The ground will be warm enough to melt some of the snow that initially falls, and temperatures will be near zero, so, while 5-10 cm is possible, it’s not necessarily likely. That said, northern Alberta and Peace farmland will get at lease some enrichment from this moisture. The same cannot be said for the south, which stays dry, due to a gusty westerly downslope wind. As mentioned, in the north, temperatures will be near zero. Elsewhere, expect highs of 5 to 10 degrees, 10 to 15 in southeastern Alberta.
Saskatchewan
The map above shows snow is expected in northwestern Saskatchewan Monday and Tuesday, spreading out from a low pressure system moving from northern Alberta to central Saskatchewan. However, it will be mild, and it is likely that most of this precipitation will fall in the form of rain, except perhaps close to the Alberta boundary where it will remain as snow. The precipitation is expected to start out as drizzle, along a warm front, before steadier rain develops during the day. The area of rain and snow will be north of the Yellowhead highway, with areas to the south remaining dry. Most of the province will reach highs near 10, with 10-15 degrees likely in the south and northeast.
Manitoba
As mentioned above, the mother low on the west coast will spawn two secondary lows inland. One will bring snow to northern Alberta and rain to northern Saskatchewan. Manitoba will see the effects of a second low which forms in the northwestern US, and crosses the border into southern Manitoba Monday night. Ahead of the system, rain will fall throughout the day in southern Manitoba, extending into the interlake and central regions into the afternoon and evening. Rainfall amounts could reach 10-15 mm across agricultural regions. Strong wind gusts are possible in southern Manitoba east of the Red River Valley. There is no threat of snow as highs across the province will range from 5 to 15 degrees.
Tuesday
Alberta
As the low that brought the snow into northern Alberta Monday moves northeast, cold air will wrap around its backside. The warm westerlies of Monday in southern Alberta will be replaced by much colder air drawn in on a northwest flow. Temperatures will even out across the province, with most areas reaching highs in the 0 to 5 degree range. Southern and southeastern Alberta could reach the 5-10 degree range. Other than some lingering snow showers in northeastern Alberta, the province can expect mainly sunny, dry weather.
Saskatchewan
Precipitation continues in northern Saskatchewan, and in many areas the rain will turn to snow. The low pressure system that arrive Monday will slow down over northern Saskatchewan Tuesday, allowing the snow to continue, very slowly pulling away to the north. Again, the precipitation will happen north of the Yellowhead highway, with dry weather to the south. In fact, southern Saskatchewan can expect a mainly sunny day with a westerly wind. Highs in southern Saakatchewan will range from 5-10 degrees, and in the north, expect highs of 0-5.
Manitoba
It’s another day of clouds and rain for southern Manitoba. In the southwest, the rain will be heaviest in the morning. In the afternoon, that area of heavier rain will move eastward, and the rain may taper off in southwestern Manitoba, leaving behind a cloudy sky. This is a north-south elongated trough of low pressure, so the rain will extend all the way north to Hudson Bay. Mild weather, in the 5-10 degree range, across the province will keep the rain from changing into snow.
Wednesday
Alberta
The weather over Alberta becomes a bit more active on Wednesday, as the huge Pacific low makes landfall on the west coast. It will cause the development of another secondary low in northwestern Alberta, which will, by the end of the day, generate some rain and snow in the northeastern part of the province and central Saskatchewan. The map below shows how that will play out:
South of the active weather in northern Alberta, it stays dry for another day. It will be warm south of Carstairs, where highs could reach the 10-15 degree range. Central Alberta will have highs from 5-10, and in the north, expect to reach 0-5 degrees Wednesday afternoon.
Saskatchewan
As you see on the above animated map, a Low will move in from Alberta during the afternoon, and rain or snow will develop toward evening, if not before. Rain is likely for central Saskatchewan, with snow in north-central regions. In the afternoon and evening, the rain will extend to the southeastern corner of the province. Highs in southern Saskatchewan will range from 5-10 degrees. In the northern half of the province, expect a range of 0-5.
Manitoba
Manitoba will finally take a turn with dry weather and sunshine. It is a short break, with rain returning to southern Manitoba on Thursday. Highs in southern Manitoba and the interlake will reach 5-10 degrees. North of the lakes, expect highs from 0-5. The weather will be dry in the north as well.
Thursday
Alberta
With another big low moving into the Gulf of Alaska, pumpng up a ridge of high pressure over Alberta and Saskachewnm Alberta can expect windy, dry, and mainly sunny conditions Thursday. Some areas will be blanketed by morning fog, which should dissipate two or three hours after sunrise. Other than that, no significant weather is expected Thursday in Alberta. 5-10 degree highs can be expected in the sunshine anywhere in Alberta east of the Rockies.
Saskatchewan
The morning begins with a low in central Saskatchewan that will produce rain and snow in central and southeastern regions, with light snow in the northwest. The system is quite weak, and will produce only about 5 mm of preciitation. During the day, the low will move east, reaching Brandon by early evening. As the low moves out of Saskatchewan, it will take the rain and snow with it. We can expect the precipitation to taper off during the day. followed by a slowly clearing sky in southwestern Saskatchewan. With the cloud cover and precipitation, it will be a cool day, with highs of 0-5 across the province. The map below shows areas that can expect snow Thursday:
Manitoba
After a dry break Wednesday, wet weather returns to southern Manitoba and the interlake Thursday. A low heads into western Manitoba from central Saskatchewan, and rain returns. With highs of only 0-5, mixed precipitation or even snow can’t be ruled out. While the low moves into southwestern Manitoba, the rain will happen to the north and west of the low, so there may be some areas of the southwest that don’t see any rain at all, even though they will be directly under the low itself. That said, there won’t be a lot of moisture anywhere. Accumulations should be near 5 mm. Highs will range from 0 to 5.
Friday (Halloween!)
Alberta
Chinook conditions will develop all along the Alberta foothills Friday, and the wind could become quite powerful, especially in southwwstern Alberta near Crowsnest Pass and Pincher Creek. Expect to see a chinook arch over a wide stretch of the Alberta foothills, with a band of chinook cloud to the east. The rest of the province will remain mainly sunny. In the chinook belt, expect highs betwen 10 and 15 degrees with a strong wind. The rest of the province will be warmer than average, with highs of 5 to 10. The only weather issue affecting trick or treaters will be the wind.
Saskatchewan
High pressure over Saskatchewan should keep the province under a mainly sunny sky, though scattered cloud will be a common sight. No significant weather is expected. Highs will be in the 0-5 degree range during the afternoon, but may fall to just below zero for early evening Halloween festivities.
Manitoba
Scattered showers and flurries are expected in southern Manitoba, before high pressure moves in to clear the sky toward the weekend. While significant moisture is not expected, the remnant showers may dampen Halloween activities in southern Manitoba. Despite the unsettled weather, it will be a warm Halloween Day by Manitoba standards. Parts of southern Manitoba may reach highs of 5-10 degrees, but most of the province will settle for highs of 0-5.
Saturday
Alberta
Warm and windy weather continues in Alberta Saturday, the first day of November, as a lee low slowly forms near Calgary. Aloft, there will be a strong westerly flow. Thus, most of southern Alberta will be sunny, windy, and warm. North of the low, expect a few showers in central Alberta. It will be warm enough that the greatest likelihood is for November rain (cue Guns ‘N Roses), rather than snow. It will be extraordinarily warm in southeastern Alberta, with highs of 15 to 20 degrees. Medicine Hat’s record high for November 1 is 23.3, set in 1883. That record is probably not in play, but worth watching. Elsewhere in central and southern Alberta, look for highs in the 10-15 degree range, and the rest of the province will be warm as well, with highs of 5-10.
Saskatchewan
Expect a windy day across Saskatchewan Saturday, with clouds on the western side of the province, and sunshine in the eastern half. A low pressure system in southern Alberta will draw mild air into the province from the southwest. Southwestern Saskatchewan will be extraordinarily warm, with highs of 15 to 20 degrees west of Moose Jaw. High temperature records are possible. For example, the record November 1 high for Swift Current is 18.5, set in 1978. That record, and others, will be in jeopardy. Elsewhere across Saskatchewan it will also be warmer than average with highs of 5-15.
Manitoba
A southerly flow at the surface and aloft will bring some mild air into Manitoba for the first of November. West of the Red River Valley and through much of the interlake, expect highs between 5 adn 10 degrees. To the east and north, highs will be in the 0 to 5 degree range. Snow from an arctic Low will fall in northwestern Manitoba Saturday, but the rest of the province should stay dry.
Sunday
Alberta
The low that produced rain in central Alberta on Saturday moves to southern Manitoba on Sunday, and behind it, the sky over Alberta will clear. No significant weather is expected, as the province will be dry and sunny. However, the loss of Saturday’s chinook condtions will give slightly cooler weather to Alberta on Sunday. In the south, highs will range from 5-10 degrees, which is still well above average. Central and northern Alberta can expect highs of 0 to 5.
Saskatchewan
Even with a shift in the wind to the northwest, it will be another warm November day in Saskatchewan. The southern half of the province can expect highs from 5-10 degrees, and in the north, highs will range from 0 to 5. There will be another east west split in cloud cover, with the western half of the province under a sunny sky. There will be cloud cover to the east. The low that developed over Alberta on Saturday is an Alberta Clipper, and by definitiion, it’s fast moving. On Sunday, that low will already be in southern Manitoba, and will shoot some light rain showers back into central Saskatchewan during the day.
Manitoba
An Alberta clipper moves into southern Manitoba Sunday, drawing in very mild air from the south. Highs in the mid teens are not out of the question for places like Morden and Roseisle, south of Lake Manitoba. Highs of 10-15 will be common across southern Manitoba, and to the north, all locations should reach highs at least in the 0-5 degree range. The low will eventually bring rain, though. Rain can be expected in the northern Interlake during the midday, wrapping back around into southwestern Manitoba by the afternoon, and spreading eastward toward evening.
COMPARE: Prairie Weather This Week – Oct 20
