Prairie Weather (Rural Roots Canada) – It’s not just a frost threat anymore. Thanksgiving Weekend, parts of the prairies may get their first significant snowfall.
Snow! This coming weekend may bring the first flakes of snow to non-mountainous areas of Alberta. This is almost a week away as of this writing, so there is a lot of uncertainty over where it will fall and how much. However, it does look like a moisture-packed system will be accompanied by enough cold air to produce snow. The map below shows where snow may fall, and how much. The snow in northern Alberta is expected Saturday, and the snow in the south should fall on Sunday:
The map above shows the Canadian model outlook. Other models show different solutions, some with higher snowfall amounts and others with lower. But they all seem to agree that at least some snow will fall Thanksgiving weekend in Alberta, northern Saskatchewan, and northern Manitoba.
An upper ridge of high pressure spanning almost all of North America is the whole story for the first half of this outlook. A strong, relatively straight jet stream is keeping cold Arctic air bottled up well to the north, and an extreme super El Niño pattern in the tropical Pacific is reinforcing that setup. The net effect: genuinely warm, dry, late-summer-feeling weather dominates the Prairies most of this week, with the ridge likely peaking Monday and possibly building to a second peak later on. The pattern finally cracks late in the outlook, right as the calendar turns to Thanksgiving weekend, with the best chance for real disruption, some rain or even snow, and a genuine shot of colder air.
Speaking of which: this is Thanksgiving weekend in Canada, with the Monday holiday falling just after this outlook closes out. If you’ve got family travelling for the long weekend, or you’re planning anything outdoors, the timing lines up almost exactly with the one real weather change in this entire forecast. Build some flexibility into your travel plans.
The Harvest
The dry stretch has been exactly what this harvest needed, and the numbers show it. Alberta jumped from 42.5 to 60 per cent complete in the week ending September 29, a 21-point gain, with the south now at 77 per cent, central at 68 per cent, and even the lagging Peace Region up 22 points to 45 per cent. Saskatchewan posted an even bigger leap, from 41 to 63 per cent in the week ending September 28, a 22-point jump, with the southwest at 84 per cent and even the slower northern regions now past the halfway mark. Manitoba reached 51 per cent as of the same week, crossing the halfway point for the first time this fall, though the northwest (40 per cent) and southwest (32 per cent) remain well behind, and sprouting continues to show up in some crops. All three provinces are still trailing their five- and ten-year averages, but the gap closed fast this week, and this outlook gives producers another full stretch of warm, dry weather, plus one more push before Sunday’s system arrives, to keep closing it.
Monday
Peace Region
Westerly flow picks up across the region today, bringing gusty winds along with it, strong enough that it’s worth securing anything loose around the yard or bin site. Otherwise warm and mild under the building ridge, with plenty of sun. Highs across the Peace region in Alberta and BC will reach the mid-teens. No frost risk with this warm air mass in place; overnight lows should stay comfortably above the freezing mark.
Alberta
Westerly flow brings gusty winds province-wide today, worth watching if you’ve got anything exposed, tarps, swathed canola, loose equipment. Otherwise, this is shaping up to be one of the warmest days of the outlook, with highs reaching the upper teens in central Alberta to the mid-20s in the south. Other than a gusty wind, no significant weather is expected and no frost risk.
Saskatchewan
A developing low over the Northwest Territories drops 5 to 10 mm of rain on parts of northern Saskatchewan overnight into the early morning. This is a minor, localized event that shouldn’t affect the main agricultural belt. Elsewhere, dry and sunny. Highs will climb into the upper teens to low 20s, the warmest day of the week for many areas, and no frost risk.
Manitoba
A developing low tracking out of a Yukon trough brings a mix of wintry weather back to northern Manitoba today, though strong southerly winds should keep most of it as rain rather than snow, with 10 to 15 mm possible in the far north. Central and southern Manitoba stay dry and mild and well clear of this system, with regional highs reaching the lower to middle double digits in the south and cooler in the affected north. No frost risk in the warm southern half of the province.
Tuesday
Peace Region, Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba
The ridge holds strong, sunny skies and mild conditions all across the Peace Region and the prairies. No significant weather is expected anywhere in the region. The following two maps show the high temperatures that can be expected across the sunny prairies on Tuesday:
Courtesy: Pivotal Weather
Wednesday and Thursday
Peace Region
Still warm and dry under the ridge, little change from the past two days. Expect highs in the low-to-mid-teens. Temperatures could drop to near zero Wednesday night, but a widespread killing frost is not expected.
Alberta
Sunny and mild, regional highs in the upper teens across most of the province and to the low 20s near the US border. There’s some signal the ridge could rebuild toward a second warm peak later this week, so don’t expect this stretch to fade quickly even as the calendar pushes further into October.
Saskatchewan
Dry and warm, highs in the upper teens. Conditions remain ideal for continued harvest push. It will remain mild Wednesday night with no frost risk. Thursday night will be cooler, but temperatures are expected to remain above the freezing point.
Manitoba
Dry and mild, highs will reach the mid-teens, and it will be mild both Wednesday night and Thursday night, so no chance of frost. A welcome change from the stop-start pattern of the past month.
Friday
Peace Region
Still dry and mild early in the day. Then, the weather begins to change as a system approaches from the west. The system will bring rain to the Peace Region in the afternoon, intensifying later in the day. As the rain develops, afternoon temperatures will fall to the 8-10 degree range. The cooling will continue into the night. Temperatures will bottom out in the 0 to -2 degree range. Expect a light frost. At least.
Alberta
Warm and dry weather holds for most of the day, with highs in the upper teens to low 20s across the south and central regions, possibly the second warm peak mentioned earlier in the week. Keep an eye on the sky by evening as the pattern begins to show change toward the weekend. Temperatures will remain mild Friday night, so again frost is not a concern in Alberta outside of the Peace Region and Northwestern Alberta.
Saskatchewan
Dry and mild weather continues with a southeast wind. Highs across agricultural regions will reach the upper teens to low 20s. Last clean day before the weather turns on the weekend.
Manitoba
Like the rest of the prairies, Manitoba will be dry and mild Friday with no overnight frost risk. Highs will reach the mid-teens. Expect the weather to change this weekend.
Saturday and Sunday
Peace Region
The ridge that kept the weather sunny and dry all week starts eroding Saturday as northwest flow works in behind it, bringing Saturday morning rain that turns to light snow in the afternoon and lingering into Sunday. Highs both days will be near or just above zero. And, a hard freeze is likely both Saturday and Sunday nights. The cold weather could bring the harvest season to an end in the Peace Region and northern Alberta before Thanksgiving weekend is over.
Alberta
Saturday brings the same erosion of the ridge, northwest flow settling in and regional highs dropping all the way back to the low single digits, with rain sweeping across the province from north to south, potentially changing to snow as temperatures drop late in the day and into the evening. Snow will continue in southern Alberta through Sunday, with the highest accumulations in the southwestern foothills, as seen on the map at the top of this page. Frost risk increases significantly both Saturday and Sunday night and into Thanksgiving Monday, with meaningful odds of sub-zero readings, especially away from the warmest pockets of the south. If you’re travelling over the holiday weekend, especially in higher terrain areas, there may be weather-related disruptions.
Saskatchewan
Cooler, drier air begins working in from the northwest Saturday, regional highs easing into the teens with no precipitation expected. Sunday brings a chance of light rain or snow as the trough moves through, with temperatures dropping further, regional highs running single digits. Frost risk rises Sunday night, a real possibility in many areas for the first time in over a week, so anything still in the field or exposed on the yard deserves a second look before the holiday Monday.
Manitoba
Saturday sees the same cooling trend arrive; regional highs easing into the teens and staying dry. Sunday brings the trough through with a chance of light precipitation and noticeably cooler air, regional highs falling into the single digits to low double digits. Frost risk climbs Sunday night right alongside the rest of the Prairies, so plan around it for any Thanksgiving outdoor plans and for crops still standing.
Looking beyond…
This disruptive system looks to carry into Thanksgiving Monday itself, which falls just after this outlook ends. Confidence is still limited this far out; not every model agrees on exactly how this plays out, but the signal for some precipitation and a shot of cooler air around October 10 to 12 has been consistent across multiple runs. Given how much ground all three provinces made up this past week, producers have a real window here to keep pushing before Sunday’s system arrives, and a reasonable one again once the holiday weekend clears.
EVENT FORECASTS:
Living Soils: Soil Health Field Day, October 9, Fort. St. John, BC
October 9 – Rain, wind gusts to 40 km/h, temperature falling through the day to 5 degrees.
Canadian Finals Rodeo, October 7-10, Edmonton, AB
October 7 – Increasing cloud, high 15
October 8 – Morning showers, then clearing. Increasing cloud toward evening, high 13
October 9 – Cloudy, windy, showers, high 9
October 10 – Cloudy, windy, showers, high 4
Provost and District Museum Pumpkin Festival, October 9, Provost, AB
October 9 – Cloudy, windy, chance of showers, high 11
Mayerthorpe Agri-Food Development Day, October 10, Mayerthorpe, AB
October 10 – Cloudy, windy, showers, high 3
Rosetown Harvest Family Festival, October 9-11, Rosetown, SK
October 9 – Cloudy, windy, chance of showers, high 11
October 10 – A mix of sun and cloud, windy, high 12
October 11 – Cloudy, windy, chance of light rain or snow, high 4
COMPARE: Prairie Weather This Week – Midweek Update Oct 1
