Prairie Weather (Rural Roots Canada) – A wetter weather pattern for the eastern prairies…isolated showers this week in Alberta

The featured photo above shows fog along Highway 10 near Minnedosa, Manitoba.    Fog will be a recurring issue this week across much of the prairies.   Photo courtesy Manitoba511.

A persistent upper level low in North Dakota and Montana will provide significant rainfall for much of this week in the eastern prairies.   In Alberta, there won’t be any organized rainfall, but the atmosphere will be less stable, opening up opportunities for isolated showers and thunderstorms, along with morning fog and low cloud.

We are half way through September, and in some areas, the harvest is almost half way done.   Province-wide in Alberta, about 42 percent of the crop is in.   Even more in the south, where, according to the Alberta Crop Report, 52 percent of the harvest has been completed.   The intermittent and isolated nature of this week’s rainfall should allow farmers to keep up the pace.    In Saskatchewan,  results so far are similar, with 41 percent of the harvest complete.   However, steadier rain this week, particularly in eastern Saskatchewan, will cause delays.   In Manitoba, there has already been some isolated frost damage, and rain will continue to delay progress on the harvest this week.    The Manitoba Crop Report estimates 40 percent of the harvest has been completed.

A point of clarification on the above table:   It overstates the risk for Alberta for Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday.   The showers and storms expected in Alberta will be isolated and brief.  More areas will be dry than wet.    And, in Saskatchewan, the highest rain risk will be in the southeastern part of the province.    Scroll down for the day to day details.

The following two maps show how much rain can be expected this week, up to the evening of Sunday, Sept. 21:

Monday

Alberta

Morning fog and low cloud are likely in eastern and central Alberta.   Sunshine will burn off the fog through the mid morning.   An upper low to the south may trigger scattered thunderstorms, especially over the foothills and northern and central Alberta.   The thunderstorms, while non-severe, may produce locally heavy rain.  These storms will pop up throughout the day.    Southern Alberta won’t stay completely dry, with the chance of brief, intermittent showers continuing through the day.   Highs will range from 10-15 in the foothills to the mid twenties in eastern Alberta.   High temperatures in any one spot will be influenced by the absence or presence of the isolated showers and storms.

Saskatchewan

It will be a rainy and sometimes stormy day in southeastern Saskatchewan.   Elsewhere, expect scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms in southern and central regions.   This may cause brief delays in the harvest, though in SE Saskatchewan,  it’s unlikely any work will get done Monday, as a surface low near the Saskatchewan/Manitoba/North Dakota border pushes heavier rain into the area.  With all that rainfall, high temperatures in southeastern Saskatchewan will remain in the low to mid teens.   Elsewhere, highs in Saskatchewan will reach the low to mid 20s.

Manitoba

A surface low at the Manitoba/Saskatchewan/North Dakota border will create an unstable air mass in southwestern Manitoba, creating thunderstorms in the region.   Those storms will drift toward central Manitoba during the afternoon.   The rain will spread out well away from the centre of the low, and most of southern Manitoba will experience rain.   Harvest operations will likely pause for at least the entire day.    Heavy rain and hail are the main threats,  and showers will likely continue into the evening and overnight.    Highs across Manitoba will likely remain in the mid teens, due to the wet weather.

Tuesday

Alberta

A few showers in southeastern Alberta will drift off to the south, and the entire province is expected to be under a sunny sky for most of the day.    The morning will be cool, but frost is not expected.   Afternoon highs should reach the low 20s in most of the province.

Saskatchewan

Remnant showers are expected in the morning in southeastern Saskatchewan.  There will be a break in the midday, with a risk of isolated thunderstorms redeveloping in the afternoon.   Fields will likely be soft due to the previous day’s rain,  but the trend to drier weather will some farmers to resume the harvest.  Afternoon highs will reach 20-25 degrees in southern Saskatchewan.  North of Saskatoon, highs will reach the 15 to 20 degree range.

Manitoba

It won’t be a full harvest day, but there will be some dry windows, as the rain becomes less constant and more intermittent.    Showers and thunderstorms are expected in the morning across southern Manitoba,  with the wet weather exiting west to east during the day.    Afternoon thunderstorms, small and isolated, could form in central and southwestern Manitoba.  These isolated showers and storms will likely continue overnight and into Wednesday morning in central Manitoba.   South of the Trans Canada Highway, high temperatures could reach the low 20s.   Further north, temperatures will settle into the mid teens.

Wednesday

Alberta

A cold front will make its way through Alberta Wednesday afternoon, and that may bring a few showers or thunderstorms to the west central foothills.   The remainder of the province should stay dry.    The cold front is not particularly strong.    After the front passes, the wind will shift from the south to the west.   Ahead of its passage, highs in Alberta should reach the mid 20s.

Saskatchewan

It will be another dry day for western Saskatchewan, as showers continue off and on to the east.   Thudershowers are possible in the eastern half of southern and central Saskatchewan.    Locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds are possible if the thunderstorms develop.    Highs in the Western Saskatchewan sunshine should reach the low 20s.   To the east, it will be a few degrees cooler with highs in the high teens.

Manitoba

There is rainfall along a front, being pushed by a high pressure system moving in from the northwest.    In the morning, rain will be widespread in central Manitoba, and will taper off as it moves south.   Agricultural regions will be affected, but only minimally.   The greater concern is the rain, light as it may be, will delay the drying needed to recover from recent rainfall.     In the south, expect highs of 15 to 20 degrees.   In central and northern Manitoba, highs will only reach 10-15.

Thursday

Alberta

For most of Alberta, there will be recovery from the previous day’s cold front, with dry weather, sunshine, and highs in the 20s.   From Brooks to Medicine Hat and north to Oyen, highs could even get close to 30.  However, some of the cool air lingers west of Edmonton.  Highs in the central foothills may only reach 10-15 degrees.   Fog may show up in the early morning in eastern Alberta, but will quickly disappear as the sun comes out.

Saskatchewan

Clouds and scattered showers can be expected Thursday in agricultural regions of southern Saskatchewan.   The showers will cover much of southern Saskatchewan south of Saskatoon and east of Swift Current.  No major rainfall is anticipated.   Sunshine won’t be widespread so there is low drying potential, especially in southeastern Saskatchewan, where highs will only reach 10-15.    It will be warmer elsewhere.  In central regions, highs should make 15-20, and climb into the low 20s on the western side of the province.

Manitoba

Scattered showers will continue in agricultural southern Manitoba Thursday, though most of the showers should be small and isolated.   In a province that can’t catch a break this week, the rain showers and cooler weather will inhibit the drying process, and further delay the harvest.    Late in the day, a system in North Dakota will push some rain toward southwestern Manitoba, bringing rain overnight to areas west of Portage La Prairie.  Highs across southern Manitoba will vary between 10 and 20 degrees, depending on where the showers occur.

Friday

Alberta

A transient ridge of high pressure brings drier weathr across much of the province.  Expect a calm morning with patchy fog; good opportunity for harvest operations to continue at a healthy pace.  There is a slight chance of early morning showers in the Lloydminster area, but they will be brief,  and will quickly give way to sunshine.   With the sun, it will be warmer.   Temperatures in southeastern Alberta will reach the high 20s.   Elsewhere, from Edmonton south, it will warm to the mid 20s, and further north, highs will get to the 15-20 degree range.

Saskatchewan

Mostly dry under a ridge of high pressure with improving harvest windows across many regions; southern and southwest SK should be able to make good progress.   However, in southeastern Saskatchewan, you will again wake up to rain, perhaps wondering if it will ever end.   It will.  Later in the day, as the rain pulls northeastward.  By evening, the sky will begin clearing, and the region will join the rest of the province with drier weather.    In the sunshine, southern and southwestern Saskatchewan can expect highs in the mid 20s.  In the southeast, it will be much cooler, with highs in the high teens and low twenties, as the rain slowly moves away.

Manitoba

Still awaiting drier weather for harvest operations to resume, Manitoba is out of luck again Friday.    The system that brought rain to the south early in the morning will push north, from North Dakota into central Manitoba.   And that means another day of rain and cool weather with highs in high teens and low 20s.    Manitoba farmers, already behind in the harvest, will fall even further behind as the wet weather of this week carries on into the weekend.

Saturday and Sunday

Excellent harvest weather will continue in Alberta and Saskatchewan over the weekend.  Both provinces will be sunny and dry.   This will allow harvesting to resume in those parts of Saskatchewan that have been hit by rain during the week.   In Manitoba,  however, heavy rain is likely in southern agricultural regions Saturday, with the rain tapering off on Sunday.   Once this rain is gone, Manitoba farmers may get the break they’ve been waiting for, as next week will likely bring the return of sunshine and dry weather to the province.

EVENT FORECAST

Agricultural Societies Day Fall Harvest  –  Spruce Grove, Alberta – Saturday, September 20,  10:00 am to 2:00 pm

Event starts at 10:00 am –  Sunny,  light wind, 18 degrees.

Ends at 2:00 pm – Sunny, light breeze, 25 degrees.

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